Top MLB DFS Plays 9/25 | More Wild Action Ahead?

September 25, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Last night we got a couple extra inning walk-offs, a statement-making return from injury, a wild card berth clinched, some postseason hopes got dashed, and a closely contested three-way wild card race got even tighter. You can definitely feel the playoffs inching closer and closer. Only one game separates Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland for the right to the two AL wild card spots. Watching those teams across their final regular season games should make for some entertaining baseball. We’ll get 12 games on the ticket tonight so let’s get down to business!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

MIA @ NYM: Lighter winds blowing out to center at 5-10 mph.

CLE @ CHW: Winds blowing out to left at 10+ mph.

BOS @ TEX: You know the drill here. Hot and humid as usual. Best hitting environment of the day once again.

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom | DK: $12k, FD: $11.9k | RHP | vs. MIA

Let’s just go ahead and get the easy play out of the way. The Mets have virtually no chance (<0.1%) of making up their five game deficit to the Brewers for the second NL wild card berth, but in the words of Lloyd Christmas, “so you’re tellin’ me there’s a chance?” Anticipate deGrom being his usual, steady, dominant self in one of the easiest match-ups he could ask for. In five starts against Miami this season (31 IP), deGrom has a 2.90 ERA (3.15 xFIP) with a 1.10 WHIP, 30.9% kRate, and .235 opponent average. You know what you’re getting from deGrom at this point: seven innings of work on about 100 pitches with a strong shot at double-digit strikeouts and not a lot of damage done against him on the scoreboard.

Frankie Montas | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9k | RHP | @ LAA

There are other ‘safer’ plays at the top of pricing but Montas makes for one of the more interesting pitcher plays. Montas is eligible to return from his 80 game suspension today and the A’s are wasting no time getting him back into action. He’s been working out on a normal throwing schedule so his arm is stretched out enough to handle a 100 pitch workload, reportedly. Prior to his suspension, Montas was excellent as he pitched 90 innings across 15 games, earning a 9-2 record, while posting a 2.70 ERA (3.42 xFIP), 1.12 WHIP, 26.2% kRate, and a .231 opponent average. The depleted Angels still rank dead last in runs scored in the month of September and are hitting just .218 versus RHPs in that time. Assuming no pitch restrictions, I’d expect Montas to have a great shot at picking up right where he left off. He may have a little rust to shake but one thing is for sure, he will come in well-rested. That can be a major bonus at this point in the season.

Tim Melville | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | RHP | @ SF

The mid-range and value range for today’s pitchers just feels like a giant minefield. This Melville play is certainly risky in its own right but I’d take my chances on him over guys like Ross Detwiler, Yusei Kikuchi, Dario Agrazal, Mike Montgomery, Drew Smyly, etc. Blegh! Through six starts this season, Melville has posted three solid performances with at least 18+ DKFP and 33+ FDFP. His other three outings netted under 5 DKFP/12 FDFP. The silver lining with those poor starts being that all three of those games came at Coors Field, which obviously is a park that can eat up most any pitcher. Fortunately for him today, the Rockies are on the road in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and he’ll be toeing the rubber against a Giants team that has just a .208 AVG versus RHPs in the last month along with a measly .105 ISO, .268 OBP, and 26.6% kRate. Decent potential for value here if you’re looking to load up on bats.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Disclaimer: Once again, the Red Sox (6.4 implied runs) and Rangers (5.6 implied runs) are two top teams to stack by default and won’t be mentioned in this section. There were 22 runs scored on 29 hits in this match-up yesterday so you know the potential that games at GLP can carry.

Cleveland Indians vs. Ross Detwiler (LHP), CHW

More Indian bats again!? Let’s do it. Cleveland is in borderline “must win” territory as they’re on the outside looking in for an AL wild card bid (43.6% chance to make playoffs, per ESPN). Luckily, they’ll get one of the best match-ups of the day. Detwiler has a slate-worst 6.98 ERA (5.55 xFIP), 1.72 WHIP, and a .308 opponent average while giving up 2.73 HR/9. He’s especially bad against righties (.328 AVG, .438 wOBA, .289 ISO, 3.05 HR/9) which is bad news for Detwiler against a Cleveland team that is loaded with righties and switch hitters. Jose Ramirez made an emphatic return to the lineup last night with two home runs and seven RBI. If he’s back in the order, you know his capabilities. Some other preferred targets would be Oscar Mercado, Yasiel Puig, and Jordan Luplow. But, much like yesterday, just about anyone in this lineup falls into play.

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

This isn’t exactly a surprising recommendation either. The Astros still have some motivation to finish the regular season strong as they look to best the Yankees for the winningest record in the American League (and all of baseball) in order to ensure home field advantage further down the line in the playoffs. Considering Houston has a league leading 65.6% win percentage at home this season, you know that locking HFA up will be a priority. Kikuchi has struggled most of this season and at home this year, giving up 2.73 HR/9 while allowing a .305 AVG and .391 wOBA. Your typical guys are always in play (Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Alvarez) but for some cheaper guys, I do like Aledmys Diaz and Martin Maldonado. Very affordable prices on those guys.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP), BAL

These Baltimore/Toronto games are simply a recipe for fantasy goodness. The last eight meetings between these two teams have averaged over 14 combined runs per game! The outlook doesn’t seem great for Gabriel Ynoa. On the road this year, he has accounted for a 6.34 ERA, 5.50 xFIP, 2.54 HR/9, and is throwing just 12.3% strikeouts. The Blue Jays’ .354 team OBP versus RHPs over the last two weeks ranks third in baseball. In that time they have rocked 16 home runs off of righties and have a .319 AVG with runners in scoring position. Cavan Biggio, Reese McGuire, and Randal Grichuk are some preferred Toronto bats.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

SS Marcus Semien ( R ) | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

Semien has been one of the best bats in baseball lately. Over the last month, he is hitting .360 with 10 home runs, 29 RBI, and an .842 wOBA+ISO. He has a .417 AVG versus southpaws in that time with a .488 OBP. Andrew Heaney is a really solid strikeout pitcher but he still gives up plenty of contact and has allowed 2.45 HR/9 at home this year. Semien has only struck out 12.4% of the time against LHPs this season, so with the way he’s been playing, I like his chances of getting to Heaney early here.

OF Brett Gardner ( L ) | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), TB

Here’s one of the better BvP narrative plays of the day. In 19 plate appearances against Morton, Gardner is batting .471 with three home runs, six RBI, and a 1.265 wOBA+ISO. Morton is excellent at home (2.75 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, .201 AVG) and this is a huge game for the Rays in regards to their postseason aspirations, so I don’t expect much safety to be had with any Yankee bats. But Brett Gardner has that BvP history on his side and can explode for some huge ceiling games against anyone. He’ll likely carry <5% ownership on this slate.

2B/OF Garrett Hampson ( R ) | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP), SF

Hampson is absolutely raking right now and his salaries are barely rising. In his last 10 games, Hampson is batting .432 with a .916 wOBA+ISO, five home runs, seven RBI, 16 runs scored, and five stolen bases. That is production. Samardzija isn’t the easiest match-up to deal with but over his last four starts (23.2 IP) he has a 5.32 ERA, 6.16 xFIP, and has allowed 2.3 HR/9 while throwing just 9.2% strikeouts. Perhaps not pitching a full schedule since 2017 is starting to result in some late season wear and tear. Who knows? Regardless, Hampson stands out as one of the hottest value bats going right now.

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