Top MLB DFS Plays 9/25 | The Final Friday Hurrah

September 25, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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With the regular season wrapping up in a couple days, we’ll see one final Friday main slate head our way as we roll into the weekend. I’m pumped for the playoffs but I will certainly miss the daily grind that is MLB DFS. Here’s to hoping this was a profitable year for you guys. And if it wasn’t… well, I hope ya at least had some fun along the way. When it’s all said and done, it was just great that we actually got to have baseball this year. It looked extremely grim there for quite a while. But nine* games are on the docket this evening so let’s get after this one! Remember to keep an eye out for some surprise starters and scratches on teams that have nothing left to play for!

NOTE*: DraftKings is including the SD @ SF game onto the main slate, which is the first game of a doubleheader and will only play seven innings. I’m likely avoiding all hitters there.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Not much to be concerned about today!

DET @ KC: Winds blowing OUT to left at 10+ mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Preface: We could see starting pitchers for playoff-bound teams on lower pitch counts (~85ish pitches) tonight considering they’ll be starting in a much more meaningful game in five days. I haven’t seen anything official on any particular guy, but be aware of that extra bit of risk today.

Carlos Carrasco (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

It hasn’t been the most consistent of seasons for Carrasco but he’s been picking it up down the stretch. Over his last five starts (32.0 IP) Carrasco has posted a 1.41 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, and 1.03 WHIP with a 28% kRate and is allowing just a 22.5% Hard Contact Rate. Batters have just a .209 AVG/.243 wOBA against him in that stretch. The Pirates season was in shambles from pretty much the get-go and against RHPs they rank dead last in the league with a .261 wOBA and 61 wRC+ while striking out 25.2% of the time. If you’re spending up on a pitcher tonight, Carrasco feels like a worthy target. Cleveland is the heaviest favorite on the slate (-260) and the Pirates carry just a 3.1 implied run total.

Chris Bassitt (RHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SEA

Speaking of pitchers heating up down the stretch, in Bassitt’s last three starts (19.2 IP) he has allowed just one earned run (0.46 ERA) which came from a solo shot home run. In that time, he has also allowed just a .243 AVG/.273 wOBA and giving up 30.9% Hard Contact. He has also thrown 100+ pitches in back-to-back starts, so it would seem Bassitt is fully stretched out heading into the postseason. Seattle had its moments this year but came a few games short of a playoff berth. Overall, they’re a pretty average to below average offense, but over the last week they haven’t been able to get much going at all with a .254 wOBA and 61 wRC+ while striking out 30.2% of the time. The A’s still have seeding implications that they’re playing for and will be another very heavy favorite this evening (-200) with the Mariners bringing just a 3.5 implied run total to the table.

Others to Consider:

Jose Berrios (RHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CIN

Berrios has some extreme home/road splits and this season he has essentially averaged double the fantasy points when taking the mound in Minnesota as opposed to starting on the road (22.2 DKFP/game at home, 11.1 DKFP/game on the road). He has a 32.7% kRate at home versus an 18% kRate on the road. Without fans in the stands, we’ve seen many home/road splits kinda even out but… I guess this is just a permanent ‘thing’ for Berrios. But, since this game is in Minnesota, he’ll be in play for GPPs.

Jose Urquidy (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.8k | @ TEX

Urquidy has only received four starts this season and he’s certainly better than his 5.73 xFIP and 13.8% kRate would indicate. He racked up 30 DKFP/49 FDFP against the Rangers ten days ago. In 31 plate appearances, the current Rangers roster is hitting just .097 against Urquidy with a 29% kRate. He won’t be a ‘safe’ play necessarily, but definite upside for these salaries.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I believe ownership should be fairly spread out today but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Braves catch a lot of interest considering they lead the slate with a 5.7 implied run total and have a ton of guys who can put up great fantasy numbers.

New York Yankees vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

The Yankees are coming off of back-to-back one run offensive performances against Toronto but we’ll see if they can get back to their bombing ways in a final regular season series with Miami. Despite a couple forgettable games recently, New York still owns a league-leading .384 wOBA and 146 wRC+ over the last two weeks and have slugged 28 home runs in that time. This lineup has finally worked its way back to full strength and will look to get that last bit of rust shaken off which guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have built up during their time on the IL. Alcantara (3.12 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 20.7% kRate) isn’t the juiciest match-up by any means, but these bats can pop off against anyone and most of these Yankees could carry lower-than-expected ownership this evening.

Cleveland Indians vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

Keller only has four starts this season (16.2 IP), so the 2020 sample size is small, but his 3.24 ERA is backed up by a miserable 6.26 xFIP. He has also given up four home runs (2.16 HR/9) in his brief time on the mound this year and will be backed up by a mediocre Pirates' bullpen. Cleveland doesn’t pop off for crazy offensive numbers too often, so I probably wouldn't go crazy with four or five man stacks here, but I could see a few of these bats doing very well tonight.

Some "high ceiling" 3-man Cleveland stack options

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), MIN

This is a much more important game for the Reds than it is the Twins since the final few playoff spots in the NL are still not set in stone. If we see the “bad Berrios” take the mound tonight, the Reds can definitely take advantage. In 41 plate appearances, the current Reds roster has a strong .378 wOBA against Berrios.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

Salvy has been a monster over the last two weeks, batting .451 with a .593 wOBA, .529 ISO, and seven home runs smacked out of the park. Turnbull is a quality arm but he has shown some negative reverse splits this season and is slightly worse against RHBs. There is also those 10+ mph winds blowing out in Detroit tonight, which of course won’t work against Perez.

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Mazza (RHP), BOS

Another catcher? Hey, why not? I definitely want some piece of these Braves tonight and, in a one-off scenario, it makes plenty of sense to go with the (likely) clean up hitter who also happens to be one of the more affordable Atlanta bats. d’Arnaud has been a very solid contributor to the league’s top offense this season as he has hit .323 with a .394 wOBA and 147 wRC+. Mazza probably won’t pitch more than three, maybe four, innings this game and is one of the lowest quality starters on the slate.

Note: d’Arnaud is OUT of the lineup. Give me OF Adam Duvall (DK: $4.8k, $3.2k) hitting clean-up for the Braves instead.

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), NYY

Aguilar in the month of September: .295 AVG, .388 wOBA, .193 ISO, .404 OBP, 148 wRC+, four home runs, 13 RBI. Aguilar is also very efficient against lefties this season (.333 AVG, .414 wOBA, .255 ISO). For these salaries, especially over on DK, Aguilar is well worth some consideration as a one-off bat this evening.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

I'll go with Joe today and roll with Ramirez as my HR call as well. The guy has just been crushing and leads the league with eight home runs and a .600 ISO over the last two weeks. I don't believe Mitch Keller is the sort of pitcher that should be expected to cool off the hot bat that Ramirez is swinging.

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