Top MLB DFS Plays 9/24 | Monitoring the Skies in Atlanta

September 24, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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As the MLB regular season sadly winds down, this Thursday will bring us a modest little six-game slate. Despite only six games on the docket, it's still highly playable from a DFS standpoint and, personally, I kinda like these small slates on occasion -- not as much "noise." However, this could quickly be slimmed down to a five-gamer, as rain threatens to postpone the MIA @ ATL match-up. It’s difficult to project what ends up happening in that game, but for now I will keep Marlins and Braves players within consideration. Remember that at this point in the season, some teams who have no chance at making the postseason will throw out abnormal starting lineups filled with young/inexperienced players. Be extra diligent looking out for unexpected late-scratches and surprise starters! For the most up-to-date playoff picture breakdown, feel free to refer to this MLB.com article.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

🚨MIA @ ATL:🚨 As mentioned in the intro, this game possesses some real weather concerns today. Scattered storms will be spread across the Atlanta area all afternoon and throughout the time this game is scheduled to play. This game is the first one to start on this slate (7:10 ET) so hopefully we’ll get word on what the plan is prior to lineups locking.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.6k | @ STL

Burnes will likely be the highest-owned arm on the slate, especially on DK where he’s blatantly mispriced at $8,400 (should probably be at least $1,000 more). But there are only so many directions we can go on a six (possibly five) game slate, and he’ll be perfectly fine for cash builds. If you roll him out in GPPs, simply look to get a little more creative with your hitters. Burnes has quietly been one of the better pitchers in baseball as of late. He backs up his 1.77 ERA with a 2.89 xFIP and an elite 37.6% kRate (14.6% SwStr%). Burnes struck out ten Cardinal hitters across just 4.2 innings back on September 14th and has racked up a total of 47 Ks in his last five starts. In a game that carries some postseason implications, look for Milwaukee to rely heavily on their 25-year-old right hander. The Brewers are -145 favorites in this game, while the Cardinals carry a slate-low 3.4 implied runs.

Christian Javier (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.4k | @ TEX

The Rangers have hit just .208 versus RHPs this season alongside a .276 wOBA (ranks 29th), .142 ISO (27th), and a 63 wRC+ (29th). Javier is not the safest investment, as his 3.33 ERA is backed up by a poor 4.88 xFIP. He also allows a ton of fly balls (53.3% FB%) and has a below average swinging strike rate (8.4%). But his overall 25.3% kRate is solid and if he can hit a pitch count around 85 or so and throw five or six innings of solid baseball, he likely returns value on these salaries. Against the Rangers back on September 2nd, Javier threw 6.2 strong innings on 93 pitches and allowed just one earned run on two hits, though he only struck out three batters. Still, his performance was good enough to earn 20.6 DKFP/36 FDFP. On a slate like this, I’ll take a similar result ten times out of ten.

Others to Consider:

Lance Lynn (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. HOU

Barring injury or an unforeseen workload restriction, Lynn is locked into 100+ pitches considering he has thrown no less than 102 pitches in any start this season. The strikeout upside may be a bit limited, however. Lynn holds a solid 26.8% kRate (11.4% SwStr%) but the Astros strikeout just 20% of the time versus RHPs. While Lynn may not rack up 10+ strikeouts, I don’t think Houston is a team to shy away from. Over the last two weeks they have a miserably low .202 AVG, .260 wOBA, .115 ISO, and 63 wRC+.

Martin Perez (LHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. BAL

Perez should be a solid contrarian option today, albeit quite risky. He holds a low 18.3% kRate but the Orioles could boost that figure a bit today, as they have struck out 29.9% of the time versus LHPs over the last two weeks (154 plate appearances) while hitting just .163 with a .207 wOBA, .071 ISO, and a 24 wRC+ -- all numbers that are comically low in that two week sample size versus southpaw pitching.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Six (possibly five) game slate so I’d just play the team stacks that you like the most, ownership be damned.

Kansas City Royals (RHBs) vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET

Fulmer may only pitch about three innings tonight before he is retired but I’ll look to take advantage of the match-up regardless. Fulmer has been absolutely horrendous against RHBs this season. To that side of the plate he is allowing a .489 AVG, .572 wOBA, .404 ISO, 2.89 WHIP, and 5.79 HR/9. It’s a small sample size (9.1 IP, 53 batters faced) but still… good gracious those splits are bad. After Fulmer is off the mound, the Royals stack still has some upside. Over the last month, the Tigers bullpen has posted a 5.53 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and 1.76 HR/9 -- all numbers that put them inside the bottom ten among bullpen ranks.

A few "high ceiling" 3-man Royal stacks to consider

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Mike Fiers (RHP), OAK

You pay a premium for most of these Dodger bats but it seems like a guarantee that at least a few of these guys will either hit a homer or have a productive multi-hit + multi-RBI game. The Dodgers have clinched the NL West and the NL’s overall No. 1 seed so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a couple non-traditional starters make the lineup but, for the most part, their usual order should be intact. Fiers possesses a slate-low 14.5% kRate (6.2% SwStr%) and will likely struggle against a Dodgers team that has an already low 20% kRate versus RHPs.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Honestly, not that crazy of a stack. The Tigers have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Their .376 wOBA and 139 wRC+ trail only the Chicago White Sox when it comes to offensive splits versus lefties. Bubic has been trending up in recent starts but if he is even remotely popular, I’ll look to take some Tiger bats against him -- especially since most of them can be had on the cheap.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

Once again, keep in mind that this game may get rained out, so proceed with caution. Albies has been on a tear in the month of September. In 14 games (57 at-bats) he is hitting .400 with a .482 wOBA, .316 ISO, five home runs, 12 RBI, and a 202 wRC+ rating. The Braves slotted him in at clean up yesterday and he came through with another multi-hit performance. If he’s back in the four spot once again, I’ll be even more inclined to rostering him as a premium bat tonight. He is 0-for-11 versus Pablo Lopez in his career but that’s not a large enough BvP sample size that I’m willing to put too much stock into.

Note: Batting 5th. Obviously would have preferred the clean-up spot but not a big deal. Still on board with Albies assuming the weather cooperates.

1B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Candelario is one of those Tiger bats that has boosted their offensive output drastically when facing a lefty. Versus LHPs this season, Candelario is batting an astounding .421 with a .493 wOBA, .263 ISO, and 216 wRC+ rating. His bat has gone cold over the last week but I’d be looking for him to get back into the swing of things tonight.

OF Jackie Bradley Jr. | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), BAL

After hitting .329 with a .417 OBP in the month of September, JBJ has gradually been climbing his way up in the Red Sox batting order. He has hit 5th in the lineup in two of the last three games and may land in the same spot once again this evening. Cobb struggles a fair amount versus lefties, like Bradley, and has allowed them to hit .284 this year with a .358 wOBA, .205 ISO, and 1.77 HR/9. JBJ will be a solid value bat to target on this slate.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET

I kinda wish Perez didn’t double-dong yesterday because I had him targeted as my HR call ahead of today’s slate. Hopefully he saved some gas in the tank for this evening, but if not, maybe he can grab some from the gas can that is Michael Fulmer. I mentioned earlier how abysmal Fulmer’s reverse splits have been this season and since returning to the Royals lineup after dealing with an eye complication, Perez is hitting .447 with an beastly 1.093 wOBA+ISO and has hit six home runs in that stretch. He’s got a pair of dingers off of Fulmer in 18 career at-bats against him, so let’s see if he snags a third.

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