Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 9/24 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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Time to kick it into gear for a massive baseball-filled Friday night! On FanDuel, the main slate will consist of 13 games and exclude game two of the Cardinals/Cubs doubleheader (7 inning game) as well as the Braves/Padres nightcap. The Braves/Padres night game is technically part of a doubleheader as these teams will complete a previously suspended game from July 21st earlier in the day. However, the night game will play as a normal 9 inning game. Both match-ups mentioned will be included onto the DraftKings main slate, bringing the total up to 15 games there. After tonight, there’s only one more massive Friday slate remaining this season so get your MLB DFS action in while ya can!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The only real trouble spots to track this evening will be out in Boston and Chicago.

NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered showers in the area that may or may not affect play. It seems like they should be able to get this game in but the possibility of an in-game delay will add a little extra risk on the starting pitchers.

STL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Game 2 of the doubleheader (only on DraftKings slate). A few showers will be in the Chicago area as well so a delay of some sort is possible but not incredibly likely. The main note here is the fact that there will be 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center. Bats get a bump! But remember, pending extras, this game will only play seven innings… though you don’t often see an 8+ run O/U in one of these seven inning games!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIN

Berrios will step on the mound at Target Field for the first time since being traded from Minnesota to Toronto. Perhaps there’s a little #RevengeNarrative to ride here? He did just face the Twins in his last start five days ago and had a decent outing (6.1 IP, 100 PC, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, 6 K, 21.4 DKFP/39 FDFP). I’m always a little hesitant to recommend pitchers who are facing the same team twice within the span of a week. But Berrios was known to pitch well throughout his career when he was at “home” in Minnesota and the Twins have been middle-of-the-pack offensively while striking out 24.7% of the time versus RHPs in the last two weeks. The game time temperatures are also going to be in the 50s in Minnesota tonight, so batted balls are going to have a little less pop. Berrios is on a nice roll with a 2.41 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 26.9% kRate over his last five starts so I’ll look for him to keep the momentum rolling.

Dylan Cease, CWS | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ CLE

Cease has been really mowing ‘em down with a 38.5% kRate across his last five starts, which tops all starting pitchers on the slate. He has been struggling with some walks recently, but much of those issues stem from his start against Boston on Sept. 11th (five walks issued over 2.2 IP) where Cease just… didn’t have it that day. He’ll face off with a Cleveland team that has struck out a lofty 27.2% of the time versus RHPs in the last two weeks (324 plate appearances). In that same time frame, they’re hitting a mere .219 with a .293 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 84 wRC+ -- all bottom 10 offensive numbers. Cease’s counterpart will be Shane Bieber, who is making his first MLB start since June 13th. Bieber is expected to throw around 75 pitches and will likely make it tough for the White Sox offense to produce some run support for Cease. Still, the White Sox head into Cleveland as slight favorites.

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.2k | @ LAA

Gilbert will be more of an SP2 candidate on DraftKings due to the low $6,400 price tag. After a dip in success during his appearances in mid-to-late August, Gilbert has been gradually improving over the last three-and-a-half weeks. Since September 1st (four starts, 22.1 IP), Gilbert has acquired a 2.01 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 25.8% kRate, and has allowed only a .209 AVG/.243 wOBA. That xFIP being more than double his ERA in that span is a little concerning but that’ll just be included in the risk factor when rostering him this evening. The Angels have ranked well inside the bottom 10 offenses and have posted only a 77 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (ranks 27th). Gilbert is averaging 93 pitches/gm over his last five so I do like his chances of covering five or six innings and racking up six or seven strikeouts along the way. The Mariners are slight -125 favorites as well, so there’s a decent chance Gilbert can snag that win bonus as well.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

San Francisco Giants vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

> Coors Field

> SF: 6.5 implied runs, tops on the slate

> Lambert: 1st MLB start since 2019

> Lambert: in 89.1 IP, he has an awful 7.25 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .315 opp AVG, 13.6% kRate, and 1.81 HR/9 Rate

> Colorado likely deploys their bullpen for much of this game

> SF: 134 wRC+ last 14 days

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

> LAD: 5.6 implied runs, ranks 2nd on the slate

> LAD vs. ARI this season: .305 AVG, .394 wOBA, .236 ISO, 150 wRC+

> Castellanos: 5.06 xFIP, likely only pitches 4-5 innings

> ARI Bullpen: 5.52 xFIP over the last month, 2nd worst in MLB

Secondary Stacks ✌️

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

> TB: LHBs preferred

> Cabrera: 5.31 ERA, 5.66 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP

> Cabrera vs. LHBs: 9.35 ERA, 6.40 xFIP, .491 wOBA, 1.73 WHIP, 4.15 HR/9

> MIA: Declining bullpen performance in recent weeks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Sam Howard (LHP), PIT

> PHI: 5.1 implied runs

> Howard: 5.80 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP

> Howard: Likely only pitches one or two innings

> PIT Bullpen: Ranks bottom 10

DK Only: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

> STL: Completely smashing lately

> 7 inning game, may drive down ownership

> 15-20 mph winds blowing out

> Bats are priced WAY down on DK (presumably due to the 7 inning game format)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

> Wells Last 5 Starts: 10.26 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 13.3% kRate

> BAL Bullpen: Just… not good. 6.85 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9 over the last month

> Camden Yards: Excellent hitter’s park

> TEX: 4.8 implied runs

> TEX: In an obviously good spot but should still be low-owned due to the large slate

> TEX: Plenty of cheap bats

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

2B/OF Brandon Lowe | DK: $5.2k, FD:$3.5k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.8k, FD: N/A | vs. Reiss Knehr (RHP), SD

SS Corey Seager | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $3.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $3.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX

2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

OF/SS Nick Gordon | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $2.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

C Nick Fortes | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. David Robertson (RHP), TB

2B/3B Matt Duffy | SK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Austin Meadows | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

It’s a small sample size, but in 48 LHBs faced, Cabrera has allowed a .333 AVG, .491 wOBA, .385 ISO, with a 4.15 HR/9 Rate! Meadows has hit 24 of his 26 home runs off of right-handed pitching while producing a huge .294 ISO. His 94.4 mph average exit velocity versus RHPs over the last two weeks ranks inside the 95th percentile and he is creating a 48% HardContact% in that span as well. If Meadows sees a couple of ABs against Cabrera before he is relieved from the mound, I’m liking his home run chances this evening!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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