Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊NFL fans, be on the lookout for PreSnap Podcast episodes this week!

Subscribe now wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

We’ll have 13 games land in our crosshairs this evening and it seems like a day for one-sided affairs. This slate is loaded with excellent pitchers and currently ten teams are favored with odds of -170 or better! While things are projected to be lopsided by Vegas, we all know how rarely things play out the way they ‘should’ in baseball. The Rockies remain on the road, so no Coors Field in play today, but we’ll see a game in Globe Life Park for the first time since Sept. 15th. Naturally, that will be the only game with a double-digit total. There are a load of other offenses and pitchers in great spots so let’s get this show on the road and dive on in!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

BOS @ TEX: Scattered thunderstorms near GLP will make this our only real weather delay threat. Postponement is highly unlikely. Also, no other game today will even be played in 80+ degree temperatures. Meanwhile, in Texas, temps are still set to be in the 90s at first pitch.

ATL @ KC: 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left. There are some crosswinds here too but overall it's a bit of a bump up to bats, particularly righty power.

CLE @ CHW: 15 mph winds blowing IN from right. Bump down for bats.

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Clevinger | DK: $11.8k, FD: $11.6k | RHP | @ CHW

So many stud pitchers are taking the mound today but two of the most prolific fantasy performers lead the way at the top with Mike Clevinger and Gerrit Cole (DK: $13k, FD: $12.3k). Cole is an unstoppable force right now and I believe he’s the first pitcher to hit $13k on DraftKings this season -- feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. The Astros do have some postseason motivation today, as they try to outdo the Yankees for the best record in the AL, thus ensuring home field advantage down the road in the playoffs. But the Indians have much more to gain, as they are fighting for their postseason lives. Cleveland is currently a half game back from Tampa Bay for the second AL wild card berth and have a 39.8% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN. In two previous starts against the White Sox this year (14 IP), Clevinger has allowed just two earned runs (1.29 ERA) on three hits (.067 AVG) while striking out 21 batters (40.4% kRate). The White Sox have actually been a top ten offense versus RHPs in the last month with a .324 wOBA and 103 wRC+, but they’re still striking out 26.4% of the time. I’m not sure they can hang with Clevinger here today so expect another strong outing from the Indians’ ace. Those 15 mph winds blowing in should only help as well.

Homer Bailey | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.5k | RHP | vs. LAA

Since being traded to the Athletics on July 14th, Homer Bailey has been excellent when he’s taken the mound at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. In six home starts (with Oakland), across 37.2 IP Bailey has a 2.39 ERA (3.58 xFIP) with a 26.5% kRate, 1.06 WHIP, and .236 opponent average. Now that they’re without the services of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Justin Upton, the Angels have scored the fewest runs (65) of any team in the month of September. They’re hitting .212 against right-handed pitching in that time. Interestingly enough, the league leading team in runs scored this month is Oakland, who doubles them up exactly with 130 runs. The A’s stand as heavy -215 favorites so Bailey has a wide pathway to position himself for a win tonight. He should be able to roll through this makeshift Angels order and, with Oakland holding a 1.5 game lead atop the AL wild card race, motivation should not be in question.

Danny Duffy | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | LHP | vs. ATL

When choosing pitchers, most people aren’t going to delve into the $7k (and below) range today. That will make Danny Duffy an intriguing GPP option, as he is in strong form at the close of this season. Across his last three starts (19 IP), Duffy has allowed just two earned runs (0.95 ERA) while posting a solid 23.9% kRate, 0.79 WHIP, and a .127 opponent average. Those three starts came against Miami, Oakland, and Houston -- so one terrible offense, one really good offense, and quite literally the best offense. The Braves have also been very mediocre versus left-handed pitching. Against LHPs over the last month, Atlanta is batting just .221 (ranks 28th) with a .319 wOBA (19th) and 96 wRC+ (18th). In that time they’re striking out 27.3% of the time -- the second highest rate in baseball versus southpaws. Duffy had an excellent 11 strikeout performance versus Atlanta earlier in the year, resulting in 28.7 DKFP/52 FDFP. I’m not expecting that same sort of performance but there is sneaky strong upside here going against an offense that most people are scared to attack.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Disclaimer: Boston (6.0 implied runs) and Texas (5.0 implied runs) will play in the hottest/best-hitting environment today with the highest total. Both teams are top stacks by default.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago (LHP), CHW

Santiago is the replacement to Dylan Covey in the White Sox rotation. The fact that someone isn’t good enough to start over Dylan Covey is probably all you need to know pertaining to the viability of a Cleveland stack, but I’ll follow it up with a bit of cold, hard data. Santiago has a slate worst 5.96 xFIP with a horrible 1.81 WHIP. Most of his innings this year have been from the bullpen, typically in advantageous situations, so to post those numbers is pretty telling. Cleveland ranks first in baseball with a team .367 wOBA versus LHPs in the last month along with a .379 OBP (also first). Carlos Santana and Jordan Luplow are the best lefty mashers in this lineup. You can’t exclude Oscar Mercado from consideration either with the way he’s been playing. Really, most of this lineup is in play today.

Miami Marlins vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), NYM

This is probably getting a little too ‘cute’ on a slate this large but you have to acknowledge how bad Syndergaard has been over the last month. In his last five starts (25.2 IP), Thor has a 7.36 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, 2.45 HR/9, and .303 opponent average. Miami is the perfect team for Syndergaard to right the ship against at the close of the season but, as we saw last night, the Marlins are also swinging some pretty confident, carefree bats. Harold Ramirez, Starlin Castro, Jorge Alfaro (who had him last night?!), and Jon Berti would be some preferred Miami targets.

Oakland Athletics vs. Dillon Peters (LHP), LAA

Across his last six starts (26.1 IP), Peters has allowed a .307 AVG, .409 wOBA, 2.40 HR/9, with a 1.86 WHIP and a low 13% kRate. That has resulted in a 6.84 ERA and a 6.66 xFIP. Bad omens. Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, and Mark Canha are my favorite bats here. I also wouldn’t sleep on Khris Davis who is hitting .324 versus LHPs since August 1st alongside a .442 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 184 wRC+.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

3B/SS Alex Bregman (RHB) | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), SEA

Bregman’s 198 wRC+ over the last month trails only Mitch Garver and Eugenio Suarez in all of baseball (min. 50 PA). He’s batting .340 over the last month with an .810 wOBA+ISO, seven home runs, and 19 RBI while getting on base 46.3% of the time. Southpaw Tommy Milone is set to see the bulk of the innings for Seattle tonight. Against RHBs, Milone has a 5.00 xFIP and just an 18.3% kRate. Most days, Bregman is going to be one of the better ‘high floor, high ceiling’ options to spend up on. Today feels like one of those days.

OF Marcell Ozuna (RHB) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mike Leake (RHP), ARI

Ozuna has been somewhat “home run or bust” lately so if he goes 0-for3 with a walk tonight, that’s a stat line we shouldn’t be surprised by. He’s got some BvP history working in his favor, however. In 14 plate appearances against Leake, Ozuna has a .545 AVG with a 1.414 wOBA+ISO and a pair of home runs. Leake has given up 2.22 HR/9 to righties this year so the Cardinals clean up man might snag another one off of him tonight.

OF Brandon Nimmo (LHB) | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Nimmo should find himself back atop the order tonight after catching a breather yesterday. He’s been a welcomed September addition to the Mets lineup after hitting five home runs in 20 games while posting an .833 wOBA+ISO and a 181 wRC+. Nimmo only has a .111 AVG against Alcantara in 12 plate appearances but I’m not overly concerned about that. Alcantara has an awful 6.36 xFIP versus LHBs on the road this season. I’d expect a strong floor from the Mets lead-off man this evening.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or your choice of LineStar T-Shirt

Congrats to out last winner: TeddySlays who scored 170.1 points!

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.

Best of luck today! And be sure to subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast 

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍 or 👎!