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- Top MLB DFS Plays 9/23 | Small Slate Smashin' 💥
Top MLB DFS Plays 9/23 | Small Slate Smashin' 💥
Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat
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It’s an all-day affair across the MLB with games spanning from noon ‘til night. Depending on your DFS site of choice, the main slate will feature either four (FD) or five (DK) match-ups on the docket. The DraftKings slate will get things going at 6:40 ET with the WAS @ CIN game while FanDuel will start up at 7:05 ET with TEX @ BAL. For the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll look to primarily focus on the four mutually shared games. We may not have a massive batch of MLB games on tap this evening, and surely many will be turning their DFS focus towards the Thursday Night Football game, but there is some dinero to be made across the board so let’s get it!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️
Only one real issue to watch out for on this slate but there is some significant delay/postponement risk involved! With only a handful of games available, losing one game to weather is certainly a big deal so keep an eye out on the forecast leading up to lock!
PIT @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): It’s rainy in Philly all afternoon which will bleed over into the early evening. There could be remnants of the storm system still pushing east around the first pitch but eventually, things should clear up. A late start and play seem like a likely outcome here. With limited days left to reschedule, I imagine they’ll look to exercise patience here and try to get this game played but a postponement can’t 100% be ruled out.
Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I will work under the assumption that they’re able to get this game played tonight.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k | @ LAA
On a slate this small, there are usually only going to be a few truly enticing SP options. I don’t mind eating the chalk on the more obvious pitchers -- it’s still fairly easy to just look to differentiate with my bats. McCullers will command plenty of ownership, but he just makes too much sense. The Angels have not been good at all on offense lately and in the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they’re hitting only .213 with a 79 wRC+ (ranks 24th). McCullers has had his fair share of success against the Angels this season. In four starts and 25.2 IP against them, he has acquired a 2.10 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 29.3% kRate, and .169 opp AVG/.230 opp wOBA while averaging 24.2 DKFP/42.5 FDFP. The only glaring issue I see from him is his increased walk rate as of late (4.6 BB/9 L5Gms). As long as he doesn’t get into too much trouble with the free passes, he should possess a nice floor/ceiling combination if you’re willing to spend up at the position.
DK Main Slate Only: Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN | DK: $8,900 | vs. WAS
Castillo is coming off of arguably his best game of this season (6.1 IP, 111 PC, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 10 K, win) and it was against the mighty Dodgers, of all teams. With the exception of a meltdown on the road against Cleveland on 8/9, Castillo has been anywhere from “solid” to “lights out” in essentially every start he’s made since the beginning of June (20 starts). Those long-term results are great, the short term results are excellent, and his statcast data from the last month is superb. On top of that, he averages 46.2% more fantasy points at home, which is where he’ll be toeing the rubber today. Washington has ranked among the top 10 offenses versus RHPs in recent weeks and they haven’t been striking out all too much. But given how well he has looked against essentially everyone he has faced in the last three months, Castillo lands firmly on the radar for the DK main slate.
Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PIT
*Remember to watch out for the weather here.
Should this game play as scheduled without any middle inning delays, Nola should be in a strong spot to succeed. Nola has posted a blistering 35.9% kRate over his last five starts and while he has an ugly 5.40 ERA in that span, he has simply stumbled upon an incredibly high amount of bad luck evidenced by his 2.32 xFIP and .356 BABIP. The Pirates have managed to score 5+ runs in four consecutive games but, looking at the long term, they’re a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs and in 52 plate appearances against Nola, the current Pirates roster is hitting only .202 with a .222 wOBA. Nola could end the slate as the highest scoring pitcher and no one would be all too surprised. The Phillies are basically in ‘must win’ territory in order to keep their playoff hopes alive and they’ll also check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -280 moneyline odds.
Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.3k | @ BAL
This is the epitome of a ‘risk it for the biscuit’ play but I wanted to throw Otto out here since the three guys I mentioned above will be pretty straightforward and popular selections. If you only play, at most, a handful of lineups, perhaps just glance over this suggestion.
While Otto has an awful 9.37 ERA across 16.1 IP in his rookie campaign, he is getting absurdly unlucky. The .408 BABIP against him is completely unsustainable and his 3.60 xFIP (which is closer to where his ERA *should* be) is the exact same as Luis Castillo’s xFIP on the 2021 season, albeit across a much larger sample size. Otto is still producing a solid 24.7% kRate, he showed legit potential in his rookie debut against a great Astros offense (5 IP, 73 PC, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 7 K, 24.1 DKFP/36 FDFP), and he will face a Baltimore offense that has hit only .215 with a 77 wRC+ and 24.8% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. It’s a dangerous hitter-friendly road environment he’ll be pitching in, but if you want to get very different at the pitcher position on a small slate, Otto could be a worthwhile leverage option (more so as a GPP SP2 candidate on DraftKings).
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️
Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN
> TOR: 5.1 implied runs, #1 on the slate
> TOR current roster: 98 PA vs. Pineda, hitting .355 with a huge .462 wOBA
> Pineda: 15.1% kRate L5Gms, 27.9% LineDrive% in the last month
> MIN bullpen is fairly mediocre
> TOR: Currently sits a half-game back from the Yankees for the second AL Wild Card berth
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Connor Overton (RHP), PIT
*Remember to watch out for the weather here.
> Essentially a Pirates bullpen game w/ Overton not expected to pitch more than 2-3 innings
> PIT Bullpen: 4.80 xFIP over the last month, 6th worst
> PHI: Above average offense at home over the last month
> PHI: Plenty of postseason motivation
Secondary Stacks
Texas Rangers vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL
> Lowther: Could pitch anywhere from two to six innings
> Lowther: 9.61 ERA, 5.86 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 95.1 mph avg exit velo, 56.3 HardHit%
> BAL Bullpen: 7.13 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 1.67 HR/9 over the last month
> Camden Yards: #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark (adjusted park factor)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS
*DK Main Slate Only
> CIN: 5.38 runs/gm at home this season, ranks 4th
> Corbin: 6.11 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, .364 opp wOBA
> Corbin: 2.18 HR/9 Rate on the road this season
> Great American Ballpark: #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark (in both adjusted overall park factor and adjusted home run factor)
> WAS Bullpen: 4.54 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 1.77 HR/9 Rate over the last month
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Houston Astros vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), LAA
> HOU: Obviously one of the best offenses but Cobb has been great so I wouldn’t expect the Astros to be a popular stack, even on a small slate
> HOU: In 61 PA vs. Cobb, Astros are hitting .339 with a .360 wOBA and 18% kRate
> HOU: Slate-best 148 wRC+ over the last two weeks
> LAA Bullpen: Saw heavy usage in last night’s 12-inning game where the LAA starter (J. Junk) pitched only 4.0 innings.
> Angel Stadium: Very good hitter’s park
One-Off Bats ☝️
1B/3B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN
OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Connor Overton (RHP), PIT
OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), LAA
1B/2B Andy Ibanez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL
3B Eugenio Suarez | DK: $4.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS
OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX
3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR
Salary Savers
Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.
3B/SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL
OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN
C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.2k, FD: N/A | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS
OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX
2B/OF/SS Nick Gordon | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR
OF Jose Siri | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), LAA
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
1B/2B Andy Ibanez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL
Going with a bit of a wild card today. I’m hoping Ibanez gets two cracks at Lowther, who has faced 77 RHBs this season and has allowed four home runs (2.70 HR/9) with a .250 ISO and 44.0% HardContact%. As a team, the Rangers have struggled to hit lefty pitching this season, but Ibanez would stand out as an exception. In 86 plate appearances versus LHPs this year, Ibanez has posted a strong .341 AVG, .383 wOBA, .171 ISO, 143 wRC+, 37.3% HardContact%, and a 46.7% Fly Ball Rate. Camden Yards is one of the best parks to go home run hunting in and even if Ibanez doesn’t go deep versus Lowther, those other Oriole bullpen arms are prone to throwing some meatballs of their own across the plate.
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