Top MLB DFS Plays 9/23 | The Final Week Begins

September 23, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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We have entered the last week of the 2019 MLB regular season with Sunday marking the final day of action ahead of the October playoffs. It’s been a wild, entertaining season and hopefully it was a profitable one for you guys on the DFS front. MLB DFS is a massive grind in every sense of the word but I know we’ve had many LineStar members hit huge payouts this year, so massive congrats to you all and way to stick to it! Monday brings us a modest five game menu to mull over. There are obviously going to be some crucial games coming up this week. Make sure to follow along with the current MLB wild card standings and feel free to skim through this brief Yahoo article which outlines clinching (and elimination) scenarios as well as some important upcoming games to watch out for.

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

PHI @ WAS: Chance of light showers in the area during game time. Not really a postponement threat at all but something to check on ahead of the scheduled first pitch.

MIA @ NYM: Rain chances pick up a bit later into this game but may not affect the game at all. Pretty stiff winds blowing out to center/right field at 10-15 mph with 20 mph gusts. Bats get a bump here.

Pitchers to Consider

Steven Matz (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k) | LHP | vs. MIA

It’s pretty safe to say that Steven Matz and Patrick Corbin (DK: $11.8k, FD: $10.5k) will be the two highest owned pitchers of the day. Those two simply make the most sense on this slate. Blake Snell (DK: $10.3k, FD: $7.5k) looked great in limited action during his first start off of the IL (26 pitches, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K) but he is in line for another limited start (3-to-4 innings, reportedly). If that is indeed the case, then he is basically unplayable at his DraftKings salary but may not be the worst contrarian play for $7,500 on FanDuel, given the lack of options on this slate.

The case for Matz is pretty simple. He is pitching at home where he owns a 1.94 ERA (3.67 xFIP) with a 7-1 record, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.9% kRate. He is averaging a whopping 82.9% more fantasy points when pitching at Citi Field (#1 most pitcher-friendly park). He’s permitting just 29.9% Hard Contact in the last two months and 30.1% Fly Balls. As for his match-up, Miami is… well, Miami. They may not be as awful as their aquatic football brethren but by now you probably know that they’ve been fighting it out with the Tigers for the title of “Worst MLB team of 2019” -- though, I think we can mostly agree that Detroit ‘wins’ that decision. Against LHPs in the last month, Miami is batting just .225 with a .139 ISO and 79 wRC+. As unlikely as it is that they snag a wild card spot, the Mets are mathematically still alive in the playoff hunt, so we can trust that Matz should be playing with some extra motivation and without any pitch restrictions -- which can be a concern at this time of year. The Mets are stout -230 favorites today.

Zach Eflin (DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k) | RHP | @ WAS

If you want to get away from the Corbin and Matz chalk, Eflin might be one of the more viable pivots among our limited options, particularly at his DK price, which makes him an interesting SP2 play in GPPs. He hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in five consecutive starts and he has also pitched very well against the Nationals this season. In three starts against Washington (18 IP), Eflin holds a 1.50 ERA (3.99 xFIP) with a 29.2% kRate, 1.00 WHIP, and .182 opponent average. Odds are Eflin will have a tough time maintaining such strong numbers in this fourth match-up, but the season history has to put him in play for tournaments.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chandler Shepherd (RHP), BAL

This is the only game with a double-digit total so you’re most definitely going to want a piece of the action. Toronto quite comfortably holds the highest implied team total of the day (5.7 runs) and they’ll face an unproven pitcher in Chandler Shepherd who has just 11 MLB innings to his name (4.91 ERA, 5.21 xFIP). In the minor leagues this year, Shepherd had a combined 3-10 record with a 6.18 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 1.68 HR/9. Toronto will end up seeing some additional innings from a poor O’s bullpen if Shepherd is unable to hang around long. Cavan Biggio and Reese McGuire have been the more reliable Blue Jays hitters while guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Rowdy Tellez stand out as more ‘boom/bust’ options. Bo Bichette (concussion) is also clearly in play if he isn’t held out once again.

New York Mets vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), MIA

After a torrid start to the season, things have not gone Caleb Smith’s way lately. Across his last eight starts (42.1 IP), Smith has posted a very poor 6.38 ERA (6.20 xFIP) with a 1.44 WHIP and a 2.60 HR/9. His fly ball rate is a lofty 56.6% in that stretch and he’s allowed ten barreled balls in the last 30 days (bottom 5% among pitchers). Even in a very pitcher-friendly park, there’s legitimate multi-home run upside here at Smith’s expense, especially with those strong winds blowing out at Citi Field tonight. Pete Alonso, Todd Frazier, and Wilson Ramos are some preferred options. I’ll take some shares of Brandon Nimmo as well, considering how good he has been in lefty on lefty match-ups this season.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

OF Juan Soto (LHB) | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), PHI

Soto has been slumping a bit after going 1-for-18 (.060) over the last week. However, those games were all on the road and the Nats now return home where Soto’s batting average skyrockets. On the road this season, Soto is hitting .252 with a .606 wOBA+ISO. Certainly not terrible numbers for a power hitter. However, at Nationals Park, his batting average jumps pretty dramatically to .323 with a .738 wOBA+ISO. I know I highlighted Eflin above as a contrarian play at pitcher but I can’t ignore the fact that he struggles with lefties (5.43 xFIP, .268 AVG, .362 wOBA, .234 ISO). In 13 plate appearances versus Eflin, Soto is batting .417 and will be looking for his first homer off of him tonight.

OF Austin Hays (RHB) | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Clay Buchholz (RHP), TOR

Hays is likely still too cheap when you take into account that this game could be the highest scoring contest of the day and the fact that he will likely bat in the heart of the O’s order. It’s a small sample size for the recent minor league call up, but in 26 plate appearances versus RHPs this season, Hays is batting .458 with a .986 wOBA+ISO, which includes a pair of home runs and four doubles. Buchholz hasn’t exactly been sharp against either side of the plate this season, though he has actually shown some poor reverse splits. Versus RHBs he has a 5.61 xFIP while allowing a .321 AVG, .392 wOBA, and .238 ISO. This feels like another exploitable righty on righty match-up for Hays.

2B/3B Joey Wendle (LHB) | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP), BOS

Unfortunately the D-backs are killing my vibe and opted to leave Abraham Almonte out of the starting lineup. So, diving for another cheap one off bat, enter Joey Wendle. The Rays have already confirmed Wendle as their lead-off guy for this evening. He’s batting .286 over his last 20 games (77 PA) including a .305 AVG versus RHPs in that time (64 PAs) with four stolen bags to boot. Chacin isn’t going to pitch more than about three innings before Boston deploys their bullpen but Wendle could still face off with him for a couple at bats. Against LHBs this season, Chacin has a very poor 6.16 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, and throws for just 14% strikeouts. Wendle can easily pay off his low salaries from the top spot in the Rays order this evening.

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