Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Hump Day. A 10-game main slate slides in on the docket today. I’m a fan of this evening’s pitching, hitting, and stack options so this should be a fun slate to build for! Let’s keep it short and sweet and dive into this thing!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Some nasty weather already caused some multiple postponements on the early slate but it would appear that this evening’s set of games are in the clear, for the most part.

BAL @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance for some light rain. Nothing major. Winds blowing OUT to left at 10-15 mph. Bats get a little bump.

TEX @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Low-end chance for some light rain. Nothing major. Winds blowing IN from right at 10-15 mph. The pitchers get a little bump.

MIN @ CHC (7:40 ET, 7 O/U): Despite some stiff winds blowing in at Wrigley yesterday, this match-up still produced 14 runs with multiple homers. Mother nature might’ve had a bet on the under because she’s stepping it up a notch today. Sustained winds will be blowing IN from left near 25 mph with potential for 30+ mph gusts. The total here clearly has those strong winds baked into the 7 run O/U. Things could get pretty wild in these conditions. Obvious downgrade to bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | vs. BAL

Wheeler sets up with the best floor and ceiling combination today, so I wouldn’t be against eating some chalk here by paying all the way up. The O’s are hitting just .222 against RHPs in the last two weeks with an 80 wRC+ (ranks 25th) while striking out 24% of the time. Their offensive numbers take a significant dive when they’re on the road where they have averaged only 3.70 runs/gm this season (vs. 4.55 runs/gm @ home). Wheeler had a slightly shorter outing than usual when he went only 5.0 IP on 93 pitches in his last start, but he’s normally going to go 6+ innings and end the day with 100+ pitches. The Phillies are in ‘desperation mode’ as their postseason hopes are dwindling, now three games back from the Braves in the NL East with 11 games to play. They really need another ace-level performance out of Wheeler in this spot. They do check in as, by far, the heaviest favorites on the slate (-330) while Baltimore carries a low 3.4 implied run total.

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ CHC

It makes sense to target starting pitchers in this game with those 25+ mph winds blowing in at Wrigley today. The rookie Joe Ryan only has three MLB starts and 17.0 IP under his belt, but he has looked impressive en route to a 2.12 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 23.3% kRate, and .121 opp AVG. While the Cubs bats have been really solid (113 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 7th), they’re still striking out more than any team in the MLB (29.8% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks). Ryan also routinely posted a kRate well over 30% at every minor league level he pitched in so it’s very likely that his 23.3% kRate in the Majors begins to ride. The only concern here is the fact that his start got pushed back a few days following a bruised right wrist. Assuming he doesn’t face any significant limitations and will be allowed to throw around 85 pitches, I’ll look to target him out of this mid-range.

Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK | DK: $5.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. SEA

Irvin should primarily be targeted as an SP2 option on DraftKings given the notably low price tag. After a rough five-start stretch between 8/13 and 9/5, Irvin has now put together solid performances in his last two starts. Given, the competition wasn’t all that great (vs. TEX and @ LAA) but in those 13.0 IP, he acquired a 2.08 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 20% kRate, and .284 opp WOBA while scoring 23.6 & 16.7 DKFP. The Mariners have had Irvin’s number in three previous games against him this season (11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, -0.7 DKFPPG) but if Irvin continues his recent trend, it won’t be overly difficult to return value on his $5,800 DK salary. The Mariners are also having issues against lefties and rank 24th vs. LHPs over the last two weeks with an 81 wRC+. Irvin is at home in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum and the A’s will be slight -138 favorites today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

> Coors Field

> LAD: 5.8 implied runs - ranks 1st on the slate

> Marquez Last 5 Starts: 6.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 15.5% kRate

> LAD: Possesses postseason implications

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

> PHI: 5.1 implied runs

> Akin (6.93 ERA, 5.36 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP), among the worst starters in the MLB

> O’s Bullpen in the last 30 days - 7.06 ERA, 5.32 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, 1.63 HR/9, 16.4% kRate

> Phillies are nearing “must-win” territory to keep postseason hopes alive

> 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left

Secondary Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

> NYY: 5.2 implied runs

> Hearn has decent numbers (4.52 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP) but is struggling as of late

> Hearn statcast data in the last month: 28.9% LineDrive%, 42.2% HardContact%, 8 Barreled Balls

> NYY: 130 wRC+ vs. LHPs (last month) ranks 4th, .253 ISO ranks 3rd

> TEX bullpen: 5.07 xFIP (last month) -- 4th worst

Houston Astros vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

> HOU: 5.3 implied runs

> Junk: only his 3rd career MLB start, 3 HRs allowed already in his 8.0 IP

> HOU: 148 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 1st in MLB

> HOU: 156 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 1st in MLB

> LAA Bullpen: 1.55 WHIP & 4.61 xFIP (last month), 10th worst

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

> STL: Riding a 10 game win streak

> Anderson Last 5 Starts: 5.95 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 17.4% kRate

> Anderson Last Month: 29.4% LineDrive%

> STL Roster in 93 PA vs. Anderson: .313 AVG, .375 wOBA, 6.5% kRate

> STL should be low-owned primarily due to the elite Brewers bullpen (Anderson is coming off the IL, so he may only pitch 2-3 innings)

One-Off Bats ☝️

C Will Smith | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), SD

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.9k | Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux | DK; $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Jose Siri | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

2B/SS Nick Gordon | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

We don’t have much to go off of with Junk at the MLB level, aside from having an all-time great name. But he has already surrendered three home runs in two starts (8.0 IP) and he allowed a fairly high fly ball rate throughout his time in the minor leagues. Angel Stadium has also ranked 5th this season in an adjusted home run factor. Tucker went yard last night and now has five homers in his previous 20 games, three of this coming against RHPs. He’s hitting .375 in that 20 game span with a .482 wOBA, .361 ISO, and a massive 213 wRC+. I’ll look for him to go yard for the second game in a row this evening.

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