Top MLB DFS Plays 9/22 | Do We Prioritize the Big Bats Today?

September 22, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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MLB playoffs are now just a week away and today will bring forth a sizable 11-game main slate for us to chop up. Considering Zach Davies is the slate’s most expensive pitcher, you have the feeling that this may be a day where offenses could be the primary focus. This player pool of pitchers isn’t the ugliest group I’ve seen this season, but there are no real bonafide aces to roll out and several of the more intriguing options carry some real ‘blow up’ risk. But let’s see what we can cook up down the final stretch of the 2020 regular season! For the most up-to-date ‘playoff picture’ outlook, here is a link to the MLB.com article with the complete rundown.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Another day without any real delay/PPD threats to speak of!

TEX @ ARI: Roof is scheduled to be open. Game time temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-90s,

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | @ SEA

Valdez may be the most appealing option to spend up on today as he comes off of arguably his best start of the season versus the Texas Rangers (6.1 IP, 100 pitches, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 11 K, 35.3 DKFP/59 FDFP). Through his relatively short career, Valdez’s numbers do tend to suffer when he goes on the road, but the good news is that his home/road splits aren’t as drastic this season. Valdez also gets a ‘plus’ match-up with a Mariners team that has just a 74 wRC+ versus LHPs this season (ranks 28th) along with a 27.0% kRate, which is the 3rd highest in the league. Valdez has shown the ability to produce a very high rate of ground balls (59.9% GB%) while also maintaining an above average strikeout rate (26.1%) -- that’s a rare combination you don’t see all too often. Houston leads the slate with the heaviest odds to win (-190) and the Mariners will carry just a 3.8 implied run total tonight. No pitcher is ‘safe’ on this slate, but Valdez does feel like maybe the most trustworthy guy out there.

Drew Smyly (LHP) | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL

It’s definitely an odd day when I’m out here kinda wanting to play Drew Smyly. He has just 16.0 IP to his name on the 2020 season, so it’s clearly a small sample size, but Smyly is boasting a 2.50 xFIP, 39.1% kRate, and 15.1% Swinging Strike Rate while allowing a .290 wOBA -- all figures that rate out as the best on the slate. Smyly hasn’t pitched more than four innings or 78 pitches in a start yet, so he’s going to probably need to maintain those high strikeout numbers to be worth rostering today. The good news is the fact that he’ll be pitching against the Rockies whose 52 wRC+ over the last two weeks ranks dead last in the MLB, and they’re also striking out 26.3% of the time. The Rockies have just a 3.6 implied run total today and the Giants are solid -155 favorites. I don’t think I’d be going here in cash, but Smyly is worth a real look in GPPs, as scary as it may be.

Others to Consider:

Seth Lugo (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7k | vs.TB

The Lugo experiment did not work out in his last start but I might be willing to give him another shot as he takes the mound at home against a Rays team who fed Jacob deGrom 14 Ks yesterday. I definitely don’t want to compare Lugo to deGrom, but in 13.2 innings pitched at home this season, Lugo has a 1.98 ERA, 2.19 xFIP, 38.9% kRate, .204 AVG, and .288 wOBA. Small sample size and all that jazz but if those home split trends continue, Lugo could crush value at these prices.

Brady Singer (RHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. STL

Two wildly varying price points on Singer between DraftKings and FanDuel, so adjust accordingly. I’d consider Singer an SP2 option on DK, contrarian GPP option on FD. Singer has not allowed a single run in his last two starts (14.0 IP) while holding opponents to a .067 AVG/.099 wOBA and throwing 33.3% strikeouts. Now, that came against two lackluster offenses in the Tigers and Indians, but St. Louis may prove to be another exploitable match-up. In the last two weeks versus RHPs, the Cardinals have just a 71 wRC+ (ranks 25th) and are striking out a ton with a 27.9% kRate. I’m not completely sold on Singer keeping the momentum rolling, and we have to remember he is still a rookie pitcher. But considering the dearth of appealing arms on this slate, he’ll find himself in my player pool today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Ownership should be quite spread out on this slate so I don’t foresee any one team being overly chalky at the time of this writing.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

The D’backs don’t possess a very exciting lineup but Jordan Lyles (7.07 ERA, 6.10 xFIP, 12.9% kRate, 1.81 HR/9) has made several bad offenses look pretty good this season. The Rangers also have a bottom ten bullpen, so if Arizona can tag up Lyles early, they should still see some quality match-ups. The sneaky draw here as well is the fact that Chase Field will have the roof open in Phoenix tonight where temperatures will hover in the 90s. At a time of year where most games are played with temps in the 60s/70s (or either indoors), perhaps we can find some low key home run upside out in Arizona. 

A few "value" D'Backs stack to consider (Note: Official ARI lineup TBD)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

The Dodgers have a massive 152 wRC+ versus RHPs at home this season where, as a team, they also hold a .291 AVG, .388 wOBA, and strikeout just 16.7% of the time. In 22.1 IP on the road this season, Montas has struggled his way to an 8.46 ERA and has allowed a .309 AVG, .409 wOBA, 2.42 HR/9, and a 1.84 WHIP. The Dodgers are in play against virtually anyone but they should certainly fall into stack consideration today.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Miami Marlins vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), ATL

The Marlins offense may still have a bit of a bad stigma around them just because they haven’t really been very good in recent seasons. However, they’re a sneaky solid offense with some bats that can post up really strong fantasy scores. In the last two weeks they have slugged 20 home runs, which is the sixth most homers in the MLB in that stretch. As a team, they’re also hitting .315 this season when playing in Atlanta alongside a very respectable 145 wRC+. Bryse Wilson has just 34.2 IP in his MLB career and has put up a lousy 7.01 ERA, 6.03 xFIP, 1.90 WHIP, and 1.82 HR/9 in that time. I doubt he pitches more than a few innings, maybe even just the first frame. So it’ll be Wilson and quite a few bullpen arms that the Marlins face today.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), MIA

What’s not to like about Freeman today? Yes, he is hitless in his last three games but perhaps that suppresses his ownership just a bit. He’s mashing for a .444 AVG with a 1.081 wOBA+ISO in his last 68 plate appearances versus RHPs. BvP isn’t something I lean too heavily on, but Freeman does have a solid 33 PA sample size against Jose Urena, in which he is hitting .429 with a massive 1.246 wOBA+ISO and four home runs. Freeman has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the month of September, so I think we can look past that three game hitless streak and expect good things out of him this evening.

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

In Buxton’s last 11 games (38 at-bats) he is hitting .342 with a 1.133 wOBA+ISO, seven home runs, 11 RBI, and a 243 wRC+. Prior to taking a day off to rest in their last game, the Twins had rewarded Buxton’s recent production with starts at first and second in the order in their previous two games. Even though he’s been much more productive versus RHPs this season, I like him versus Tarik Skubal no matter where he lands in the order. But since the Twins are at home, I’d much prefer to see him slotted in near the top of the order once again.

3B Edwin Rios | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

I highlighted Montas’ struggles on the road this season above, and hit on how dominant the Dodgers are at home, but if you’re not stacking them up maybe you can grab a guy like Rios who is practically free. Rios has a couple home runs to his name over the last week while also hitting .320 along the way. He’s barely above minimum price on both sites and should be back in the order once again for one of the league’s best offenses.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Calhoun is crushing the ball as hard as anyone else in baseball. In the last two weeks, he leads the MLB with a .639 ISO and is third with a 65.6% Hard Contact Rate. In that span, he is tied with Jose Ramirez, Luke Voit, and Jared Walsh with seven dingers. On the season, he holds a .373 ISO versus RHPs at home and I’ve already said my piece above (in the stack section) on why I’m on board with some D’backs bats tonight so I won’t regurgitate the same info down here. But we should see Calhoun back hitting clean-up and he’ll have a great game environment to go yard once again.

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