Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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No NFL on the docket today so MLB goes back to being the popular kid in class, at least for another day or two. We’ll have 11 games coming through on this evening’s main slate. This will also be the first Coors Field slate we’ve seen in a couple of weeks, which always adds an extra layer of strategy into the mix. Load up on Coors bats or fade? Maybe gain exposure to the pitchers? Ignore the game entirely? It’ll certainly be tough to not click on some of those Dodgers bats since they always seem to do well in Colorado. But, anyhow, we’ll get into that below. As mentioned yesterday, with the regular season winding down, remember to keep an eye out on some unexpected shakeups in starting lineups! Alright, let’s get into the nitty gritty of this slate!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

A couple of early games in the 6:00 ET window have some weather concerns but the main slate looks pretty clean today. No postponement situations are expected.

MIN @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8 O/U): This looks like the only game on the slate that could see some rain. However, if anything goes over the ballpark, it’s probably going to just be lighter stuff that they could play through. The more notable weather factor here will be those 15-20 mph winds blowing in from right at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Starting pitchers get a legitimate boost.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.9k | @ SD

It would be tempting to spend up on Brandon Woodruff ($10.4k/$10.2k), however, Milwaukee is essentially locked into their playoff position without much hope of catching up to the Dodgers or Giants. There isn’t much need to keep Woodruff out there longer than necessary, so some potential upside is likely to be shaved off of his ceiling.

Meanwhile, the Giants should be heavily motivated to bring in a ‘W’ today as they sit one game back from the Dodgers in the NL West. Gausman has not been as consistent as he was over the first few months of the season, but he has still been producing some solid fantasy results, for the most part. He checks in second on the slate with a 29.4% kRate this season along with a 14.9% Swinging Strike Rate, which leads all starting pitchers today. He does face the Padres in back-to-back starts, which is always a risky proposition. However, over the last month vs. RHPs, the Padres have ranked dead last in the MLB with a 71 wRC+ and they’re hitting only .217 with a .272 wOBA and .131 ISO in that span alongside a league-worst .283 OBP. In four starts against them this season, Gausman has held San Diego to seven runs (2.63 ERA) while posting a 3.06 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 25.8% kRate, .239 AVG, and .262 wOBA. The Padres still have great talent at the plate and are obviously underperforming as of late, so Gausman is not without some risk, but he should still land firmly on the DFS radar today.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TEX

Monty is looking like a solid choice out of the mid-range. Aside from a rough outing against the Mets on Sept. 10th, Montgomery has shown a pretty solid floor for well over 2+ months now and he comes in off of a season-high 12 strikeout performance against Baltimore. In the last 30 days vs. LHPs on the road, the Rangers are batting only .212 with a 61 wRC+ and an MLB high 28.3% kRate in that span. The Yankees check-in as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-270) and it’s possible we could see Montgomery post back-to-back ceiling performances if he can push for a 100 pitch workload once again.

Alec Mills (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MIN

This is not exactly a safe investment but the major draw for Mills today will be those strong 15-20 mph winds blowing in from right field that he’ll have working in his favor. The Twins have also been a pretty lackluster offense recently. Against RHPs across the last two weeks (323 PA), they’re batting a mere .181 with a 69 wRC+. They have produced a strong .205 ISO in that span but, again, power-hitting should be held in check with those stiff winds blowing in at Wrigley tonight. You’re not getting incredible strikeout potential from Mills by any means (17% kRate), but if he can cover around six innings with a handful of strikeouts along with way, he’ll have the potential for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. On a day where there is not much stand-out value on the mound, I’d take that result 10-out-of-10 times.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

> Coors Field

> In 260 at-bats in Coors Field this season, Dodgers are hitting .315 with a .390 wOBA, .212 ISO, and 142 wRC+

New York Yankees vs. Dane Dunning + Glenn Otto (RHPs), TEX

> Dunning to open the first 1-2 innings with Otto expected to enter as a bulk reliever

> Yankees: 124 wRC+ over the last seven days

> Dunning: 1.43 WHIP, Otto: 1.65 WHIP

> NYY: 40 HRs vs. RHPs in the last month, ranks 1st

Secondary Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

> HOU: Slate best 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks

> Naughton: 1.62 WHIP, 14.3% kRate, 28.8% LineDrive% over the last month

> LAA Bullpen: 4.93 ERA (4.51 xFIP) over the last month, 7th worst

> HOU: 114 wRC+ vs. LHPs at home this season, ranks 5th

Atlanta Braves vs, Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

> In 61 PA vs. Weaver, ATL is hitting .286 with a .384 wOBA

> ARI Bullpen: MLB worst 5.71 xFIP over the last month

> ATL: 35 HRs vs. RHPs in the last month, ranks 2nd

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

> Plenty of affordable bats in this lineup

> Many will avoid Cubs bats due to those 15-20 mph winds blowing in

> Despite some HR upside being taken away, CHC have been a top 5 offense vs. RHPs lately

> CHC: 114 wRC+ vs. RHPs last two weeks

> Jax: 6.65 ERA, 5.69 xFIP, 92.0 mph avg exit velo, .363 opp wOBA -- all rank as the worst marks among today’s SPs

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. BAL Bullpen

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP) ARI

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. D. Dunning/G. Otto (RHPs), TEX

SS Corey Seager | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

2B/3B Matt Duffy | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

OF Jose Siri | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP) ARI

Eddie Rosario finally came through in the 9th inning last night with the homer so let’s go back to my Braves today and schedule Freddie to go yard! Freeman is putting the barrel on a lot of baseballs (7 barreled balls in the last 14 days, 95th percentile) but many of those are simply falling short of going over the fence and are ending up as doubles or the occasional triple. Given how well he is seeing the ball (.325 AVG L20Gms, 10.9% kRate) and how many times he’s hitting the sweet spot, Freddie is due for a home run here soon enough. Luke Weaver has had issues against lefty hitters all season and is allowing a lofty .301 ISO and 2.14 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. Weaver will be backed up by a D-Backs bullpen that has its own set of problems against lefty hitters (ranks 30th against LHBs). I’m loving Freeman’s chances of smacking one over the fence at Chase Field tonight!

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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