Top MLB DFS Plays 9/21 | Entering the Final Week of the Regular Season!

September 21, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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In bittersweet fashion, we have rapidly arrived at the final week of the MLB regular season. Over the next several days, many teams will be looking to produce a final push to either make it into, or improve their seeding, in the MLB playoffs which will start up next Tuesday, September 29th. For a full rundown on what the current playoff picture looks like, feel free to give this article from MLB.com a quick read. Beware of the potential for a higher-than-usual rate of lineup shakeups, mostly from teams who are currently (or eventually become) eliminated from the postseason. Teams with nothing left to play for will often times look to provide some invaluable MLB at-bats or innings for the younger or more inexperienced hitters & pitchers within their organization.

Today is one of those days where DraftKings and FanDuel main slates differ from one another. The DraftKings main slate features eight games and will start up at 6:37 ET. Meanwhile, FanDuel has nixed the NYY@TOR & MIL@CIN games off of their main slate and will roll with six games starting at 7:05 ET. As usual on days like this, for the purposes of this newsletter I will look to focus primarily on the six mutually shared games. Let’s kick this final Monday regular season main slate right in the teeth!

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Surprisingly, it’s another day without any significant weather impacts to monitor… not even any notable wind factors. Keep an eye on the Daily Dashboard in case some unexpected changes come up!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k | vs. TB

deGrom exited the game in his last start this past Wednesday after two innings due to a hamstring spasm. Simultaneously, he crashed thousands and thousands of DFS lineups. It would seem that it was a minor issue, as he won’t end up having to miss a start in the pitching rotation. Can we trust him to pitch his usual 100+ pitches? I would lean more towards answering “yes” to that question, but I would still like to recognize the inherent risk if you do look to spend up on the slate’s top pitcher. The Mets sit 2.5 games back from the Reds for the eighth and final playoff spot, so you have to think they’re going to bank on a dominant performance out of their ace tonight. deGrom easily leads all pitchers on this slate (and mostly all pitchers in baseball) with a 36.4% kRate, 21.4% SwStr%, and 2.55 xFIP. The Rays do not represent the easiest of match-ups (107 wRC+, ranks 10th) but they do have a high 25.5% kRate versus RHPs. Vegas is also spotting the Mets with -230 odds to win and giving the Rays just a 3.5 implied run total.

Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | @ SEA

I guess we’re about to see if these extreme home/road splits for McCullers continue to be ‘a thing.’ McCullers has been dominant at home this season: 31.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 28.4% kRate, .159 AVG, .221 wOBA. Meanwhile, in his four starts on the road in 2020 he has managed to last a combined 12.1 IP en route to a horrendous 13.50 ERA, 7.20 xFIP, 10% kRate, .393 AVG, .508 wOBA. Does pumped-in crowd noise really affect him that much? McCullers has shown poor home/road splits throughout his career, but certainly not such drastically differing numbers as he has this season. Seattle is a bottom ten offense versus RHPs and McCullers has two solid starts against them already this year: 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 27.7% kRate, .200 AVG, .308 wOBA. Those two starts, of course, came when McCullers was at home. The splits do legitimately concern me, so I’d only roll him out in GPPs tonight. However, if McCullers can channel his inner ‘home state of mind,’ he may post a very strong DFS performance.

Others to Consider:

DK Only: Luis Castillo (RHP) | $9.8k | vs. MIL

Trevor Rogers (LHP) | DK: $8k, FD: $7.2k | @ ATL

Obviously a tough match-up for the Marlins rookie but the Braves are actually an average, perhaps even a below average, offense versus LHPs. Against southpaws this season, they have a 96 wRC+ (ranks 21st) and strikeout 27.8% of the time (2nd highest kRate). The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have proven they can roll over just about any pitcher, and they’re likely licking their chops as they look to tag up a rookie making just his sixth start. But Rogers does have a high 29.6% kRate on the season and he if can limit the damage allowed to just two or three runs, he has some legitimate strikeout upside. Still, it probably doesn’t need to be said, but he’ll be a GPP-only play.

German Marquez (RHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ SF

The Giants have been really solid versus RHPs this season but I’ll gladly take some shares of Marquez pitching away from Coors Field. He has a 2.64 ERA on the road this season while averaging 18.1 DKFP (12.9 DKFP at home). Arguably, his best start of the season also came against the Giants (in Coors!) when he racked up 9 Ks across 7.1 IP for 30.3 DKFP/53 FDFP. He’s an affordable option with solid upside and a moderately safe floor.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Among the six mutually shared games between DK & FD, the Braves seem like they may the only team that will have somewhat significant ownership. Atlanta can go off against anyone but, as mentioned above, they have struggled versus lefties throughout the season.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

The Cardinals will get a crack at rookie Carlos Hernandez who only has 9.1 IP this season across three appearances. He’s a low strikeout pitcher who has pretty so-so minor league numbers and I wouldn’t expect him to pitch more than three or four innings, so plenty of potential at-bats for the Cards against the KC bullpen in this one.

New York Mets vs. Josh Fleming (LHP), TB

Fleming is slated to be the ‘long reliever’ for the Rays tonight and he has actually posted some pretty solid numbers across 23.1 IP in his rookie campaign. However, he has given up five home runs this season, resulting in a high 1.93 HR/9 Rate. The Mets have been pretty stout against southpaws this year. Their 113 wRC+ ranks 7th while their .334 wOBA checks in at 8th. On a day where there aren’t a ton of appealing spots for offenses, the Mets could be an offense that can string together a 7+ run kinda night.

Some potential 'value' Mets stacks today (Note: Starting lineup TBD)

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Seattle Mariners vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

If you read the segment above on McCullers, you know how ugly his home/road splits have been this season. If those trends continue in Seattle tonight, we could see several Mariner bats produce some lofty fantasy scores.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

Ozuna is mashing lefties this season with a .366 AVG, .553 wOBA, .561 ISO, and 250 wRC+ with seven home runs in just 41 at-bats. One of the most likely players on the slate to go yard tonight.

C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

Perez had to take a few weeks off from baseball as he dealt with blurred vision in his left eye. But since returning to the Royals lineup eight games ago, it would seem that he is seeing the ball very well. In those eight games (34 at-bats), Perez is hitting an even .500 with a massive .625 wOBA, .500 ISO, 309 wRC+ and five doubles, four homers, and 12 RBI. He’s simply on fire. He’ll draw a tough match-up against Waino tonight, but he’s been producing against nearly everyone he’s faced lately.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Hayes has been a bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 17 games (65 PA), the rookie has racked up a .310 AVG, .409 wOBA, .293 ISO, and a 159 wRC+. He’s been confirmed to be the number two hitter for the Pirates once again tonight against the ever-so-erratic Jon Lester.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

I made the mistake of not going with Ozuna as my home run call the last time he faced a lefty (three days ago versus Steven Matz), and of course he yammed one over the fence. So, I’ll roll with him as my guy tonight versus the rookie southpaw, Rogers.

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