Top MLB DFS Plays 9/20 | Targeting Teams with Postseason Motives

September 20, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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I know the playoffs are around the corner but the overall atmosphere in baseball kinda feels like it did near the end of the school year when I was a kid. Anyone else? Just me? It’s somewhat hard to describe I suppose. Every team has about 10 games left of the regular season. At this point, it can be important to focus on players, particularly starting pitchers, who are taking the field on teams with something to play for. Some guys who are playing for teams whose postseason hopes dwindled weeks/months ago may just be going through the motions at this point, or have sort of an undisclosed pitch restrictions. There are some tight wild card races coming down to the wire, especially over in the National League. For a full view of the current standings, click here.

We’ll have a 14 game main slate to work with as we head into the weekend so let’s stay sharp and go make some extra beer/Lamborghini money!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

Not much in the way of weather concerns today. NYM @ CIN and KC @ MIN carry slight delay risk from a stray isolated shower potentially passing through but nothing seems to be imminent so postponement risks are essentially off the table. Minnesota will also see the most impactful winds of the evening, which will be blowing in from right at 10 mph. This could limit left-handed power a bit but overall I wouldn’t let it influence my decision making too much, if at all.

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11k | RHP | @ CIN

The Mets postseason window of opportunity is closing but they are not out of the hunt just yet, especially if the Cubs continue to slip. deGrom’s 31.6% kRate on the season represents the highest raw strikeout rate of anyone on the slate. Over the last month he’s bumped that up to a 34.1% kRate while his ERA, xFIP, SIERA, WHIP, Walk Rate, and opponent batting averages are are all dropping. He’s pitched seven innings in 10 of his last 11 starts and in his only encounter with the Reds this season he threw for seven shutout innings while allowing three hits. In the last month versus RHPs, Cincinnati is hitting just .221 (ranks 25th) with an 82 wRC+ (21st) and a high 24.7% kRate. They’re rolling out their own ace in Luis Castillo, so we could have a bit of a pitchers’ duel on our hands, as this game’s 7.5 run total is the lowest of the day. deGrom should feel the pressure here but he and the Mets are strong -170 favorites and the Reds carry a slate-low 3.3 implied run total.

Zack Greinke | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.2k | RHP | vs. LAA

Mike Trout made his last appearance in the Angels order on September 7th. Obviously, he has since been shut down for the season. Since then, the Angels have hit .193 versus RHPs in 276 plate appearances with just a .256 wOBA, .120 ISO, 57 wRC+, and a 26.1% kRate. Awful, awful numbers. It’s no surprise that the Angels have the fewest runs scored in baseball in the month of September. Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton were shut down for the remainder of the season soon after Trout, so this lineup really doesn’t stand much of a chance on the road against a pitcher like Greinke. Of course, the Astros have their division locked up but they’re still looking to earn American League home field advantage from the Yankees who are a half game ahead of them. Greinke and the ‘Stros are the heaviest favorites of the day (-360).

Anibal Sanchez | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k | RHP | @ MIA

The Nationals hold a one game lead on the first NL wild card bid and will get one of the easiest match-ups of the day. Sanchez and the Nats will be heavy -230 favorites on the road in Miami. Typically, Sanchez has been a pitcher I’ve steered away from most of the year due to the limited upside (two 30+ DKFP games in 28 starts). But he has stretched it out to seven innings in his previous two starts, which were much more difficult match-ups -- on the road at Minnesota and at home versus Atlanta. I never feel safe about rolling Sanchez out but considering how right-handed heavy the Marlins are, for a mid-range play, he makes sense.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

The Astros have won 74.4% of their games at home the season, which leads the MLB, and really only the Dodgers (73.1%) and Yankees (70.5%) come close (Oakland is 4th, 65.8%). You can bet your ass that they’re going to be fully motivated to lock up home field advantage for the playoffs down this final stretch. They’ll get to tee off on the young RHP Jaime Barria who, on the road, has posted a 7.93 ERA (5.57 xFIP), 1.68 WHIP, 2.64 HR/9, and an opponent .296 AVG/.396 wOBA. This is a pricey team to stack up but it’s doable if you get creative. Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Yuli Gurriel would be my go-to Astro bats, but really, most of this lineup will be in play as it often is.

Seattle Mariners vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), BAL

So these Mariners are actually swinging some solid bats lately and are entering tonight on a five game winning streak. There’s no postseason hopes to be had here but these guys are still playing! They’ll get to face off with Baltimore’s opener (LHP Richard Bleier) before seeing Aaron Brooks take the mound as the bulk reliever. Since joining the O’s rotation on July 13th, Brooks has posted a 7.11 ERA (5.73 xFIP), 1.70 WHIP, 1.60 HR/9, and an opponent .322 AVG/.394 wOBA. He’s also throwing just 14.3% of strikeouts in that time. Much like yesterday when Toronto faced off with Baltimore, this game may not carry the most star power but you’ll likely see some optimal plays show up from these two teams at the end of the night. The 10.5 implied run total is tied for the highest mark of the slate (w/ KC @ MIN). On the Seattle side, I’m liking Shed Long, Kyle Lewis, and Omar Narvaez.

Cleveland Indians vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), PHI

I’ll be glad to go back to the well with some Cleveland bats again, as they enter the day deadlocked with Tampa Bay for the second AL wild card bid. Their offense has scored seven runs in three of their last four outings and will get a nice match-up with Smyly who allows a slate-worst 2.64 HR/9. Smyly has been terrible in lefty-on-lefty match-ups this year, allowing a .305 AVG, .464 wOBA, and .463 ISO. He’s not all that much better against righties, with a .271 AVG, .373 wOBA, and .244 ISO. I’d look to load up on guys like Francisco Lindor, Jordan Luplow, Carlos Santana, and Yasiel Puig.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

C Mitch Garver (RHB) | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Erik Skoglund (LHP), KC

Garver has been one of the most efficient and explosive hitters all year, but especially lately. Over the last month he’s hitting .350 with a 1.070 wOBA+ISO (1st in MLB, minimum 50 PAs), 244 wRC+ (1st), and a 1.392 OPS (1st). In only 51 at bats he has slammed eight home runs out in that time. He’s been dominant against lefties all year (.327 AVG, .487 wOBA, .426 ISO) and should get at least a couple cracks at southpaw Eric Skoglund who, in limited action this season, has allowed RHBs a .313 AVG, .403 wOBA, and .229 ISO on 50% Hard Contact. Garver, being a catcher, isn’t an every day starter, but if he is in the lineup then he’s typically one of the highest upside bats on the slate. The FanDuel price on him is typically a joke, and that is once again the case today.

OF Austin Meadows (LHB) | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Rick Porcello (RHP)

Meadows has arguably been the best hitter in the month of September. Since September 1st (16 games, 69 plate appearances), Meadows is hitting .407 with a 1.063 wOBA+ISO and a 260 wRC+. I’d be surprised if Porcello pitches too far past five, maybe six, innings but he has shown his fair share of struggles with LHBs this season (5.96 xFIP, .290 AVG, .363 wOBA, .210 ISO). Meadows is a strong floor + ceiling play once again today.

2B Yolmer Sanchez (SH) | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jordan Zimmermann (RHP), DET

So after going with two pricier bats (well, Garver isn’t too bad on FD) I felt like rolling with a super cheap option here. Sanchez will get to bat lead-off today and he’ll do so in a historically promising match-up. In 20 plate appearances versus Zimmermann, Sanchez is batting .412 with a .689 wOBA+ISO and he has also stolen a couple bags on him. The White Sox have an implied run total over five runs and Zimmermann is one of the least intimidating pitchers on the slate. Even though he hasn't shown tremendous upside lately, getting a lead-off bat this cheap with excellent BvP history makes Yolmer Sanchez a pretty easy target.

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