Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Let’s go hunting for some Monday magic on this evening’s seven-game main slate! There are officially 14 days left in the MLB regular season so enjoy these slates while ya can! The “Hunt for October” is always an exciting time if you’re a baseball fan and several divisional/wild card races are set to come down to the wire! Over the next couple of weeks, beware of the potential for a higher-than-usual rate of lineup shakeups, mostly from teams who are currently (or eventually become) eliminated from the postseason. Teams with nothing left to play for will understandably look to provide some invaluable MLB at-bats or innings for the younger or more inexperienced top-hitting & pitching prospects from within their organization. This will simply provide more incentive to stay on top of things closer to lock once confirmed lineups begin to be released! Now, let’s get into today’s slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There are only four outdoor games on tonight’s main slate and none are expected to be threatened by bad weather. Hitting & pitching conditions are also fairly neutral with cooler temps in the low-70s & no notable wind impacts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k | @ TB

Ray is the top dog on the slate and while I’m normally not going to look to attack this dangerous Tampa Bay offense, Ray has absolutely owned them this season. In five starts and 34.0 IP vs. TB, Ray has acquired a 1.85 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, 36.2% kRate, .169 opp AVG/.238 opp wOBA and is averaging 29.6 DKFP/50.2 FDFP per game. Ray has also pulled ahead as the heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award (currently -280 via FanDuel sportsbook) and the Toronto Blue Jays are in a highly contested battle to earn an AL Wild Card berth. Motivation should not be in short supply tonight. The only thing I don’t really like about the Robbie Ray play tonight (aside from the fact that he’ll eat up a large chunk of salary) stems from him pitching against Tampa Bay for the second time in back-to-back starts. That always adds a bit of risk to any pitcher, no matter how dominant they have been. Still, he’s clearly worth consideration on this seven game slate.

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TEX

After transitioning from a long relief role out of the bullpen, Cortes has turned out to be an excellent component to the Yankees starting rotation. He has posted a 2.67 ERA in his last five starts with a 0.99 WHIP and 28.3% kRate while averaging close to 100 pitches per outing. He’s flourished when pitching at home in Yankee Stadium as well, where he has a 1.93 ERA on the season. He gets a strong match-up today against a bottom 10 ranked Rangers offense that has been batting .236 with a .287 wOBA, .115 ISO, and 82 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month. The Yankees will also check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -270 moneyline odds.

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9k | vs. BAL

From a value standpoint, Suarez will clearly be a better play on DraftKings where he’s likely to be the chalkiest SP2 option by a mile. The $6,500 price tag is just too egregiously low at this point. He’s been incredibly solid in his last five starts, scoring no fewer than 19.8 DKFP en route to a 1.55 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 28.2% kRate, and .220 opp AVG/.252 opp wOBA -- he’s thrown at least 94 pitches in 4-of-5 starts as well during that span. Baltimore is typically an above average team against southpaws, but their numbers drop noticeably when they’re on the road away from their very hitter-friendly home ballpark of Camden Yards. The Phillies sit two games back from the Braves in the NL East division race while Baltimore’s postseason hopes have been dashed basically since the start of the season (sorry O’s fans), so it’s no question which side will want to win this game more. The Phillies are tied as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate with -210 moneyline odds.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

Houston Astros vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

> HOU: slate-leading 145 wRC+ L2Wks

> HOU: 5.0 implied run total (T-1st on the slate)

> Barria L5Starts: 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 17.2% kRate

> Angel Stadium: #4 most hitter-friendly ballpark

> LAA: below average bullpen

Atlanta Braves vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

> Mejia: 1st MLB startsince Aug. 28th (& only 3rd start of the season)

> Mejia: 21.0 career MLB IP, 5.14 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, 2.14 HR/9 Rate

> ARI Bullpen: MLB-worst 5.88 xFIP over the last month

> ATL fighting to hold a two-game lead in the NL East

> ATL: 41 HRs in the last month (ranks 7th) & a .198 team ISO (ranks 6th)

> ATL: 5.0 implied run total (T-1st on the slate)

Secondary Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), SEA

> OAK: 117 wRC+ in the last week

> Current A’s lineup vs. Anderson: 35 PA, .281 AVG, .343 wOBA, 17.1% kRate

> Anderson: bottom 5% barreled balls in the last 30 days (9 barreled balls)

> Anderson: 27% LineDrive% last 30 days

> SEA: Decent bullpen, but mediocre overall

New York Yankees vs. AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX

> Alexy: 4th career MLB start

> Alexy, through 14.2 IP: 5.85 xFIP, 63.6% Fly Ball Rate

> NYY: .223 ISO vs. RHPs in the last month, ranks 2nd

> TEX bullpen: 5.23 xFIP in the last month (3rd worst) & only a 16.9% kRate

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

> GPP leverage stack only

> Ray likely to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate

> TB: facing Ray for the second time within six days

> TB: 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs at home this season, ranks 2nd in MLB

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), SEA

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), STL

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

2B/3B DJ LeMahieu | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

3B/SS Gio Urshella | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

Let’s go for that value home run today with Rosario, who is fresh off of hitting for the cycle in yesterday’s series finale against the Giants! Rosario has been a tremendous asset since being traded to the Braves. In 18 games for Atlanta (49 at-bats), Rosario is hitting .327 with a .460 wOBA, .429 ISO, 10.9% kRate, 188 wRC+, 40.9% HardContact%, and he’s knocked out five home runs. In 46 RHBs faced in his brief MLB career, Mejia is allowing a .400 wOBA, .225 ISO, and 1.86 HR/9. He’ll be supported by a struggling D-Backs bullpen that has ranked among the worst relief units in the MLB. Let’s keep it rolling, Eddie!

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