Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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It’s time for a spicy Thursday mini-slate with five games waiting on deck this evening! The most obvious aspect about these five games is the fact that Coors Field is back in play with the Atlanta Braves in town to face off with the Colorado Rockies. This game will feature a pair of starting pitchers who both get hit hard (Chi Chi Gonzalez - 44.3% HardHit%, Touki Toussaint - 47.7% HardHit%) and, to no one’s surprise, it will feature a high total of 12.5 implied runs. The bats in that match-up will carry the most ownership today by far, but if you differentiate your lineups elsewhere, there’s no need to actively avoid the Coors Field bats in GPPs. Trying to predict how the remaining four games will play out is going to be the trickiest part of the slate, so let’s see if we can accomplish just that!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

No postponement issues to sweat today!

Best hitting environments: CLE @ KC, ATL @ COL

Best pitching environments: BOS @ TB

PIT @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Near 10 mph winds blowing in from center/right. Those may knockdown fly balls a bit, but won’t impact things too much.

CLE @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10+ mph winds blowing a little right to left, a little in from right.

ATL @ COL (8:40 ET, 12.5 O/U): Low-end chance of some rain which could cause a delay or late start. Not overly likely.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | vs. BOS

To spend up on McClanahan or not to spend up? The Rays southpaw has pretty easily shown the best fantasy floor of any pitcher on the slate and checks in with a slate-best 3.25 xFIP (3.59 ERA) which is paired with a high 27.7% kRate and 14.9% Swinging Strike Rate. In his last five starts, he is averaging 22.36 DKFP/40.4 FDFP. So, all of that points towards some strong upside. However, the downside comes from his inconsistent workload. He could either come out and fire 90-100 pitches while covering six or seven innings OR he’ll get pulled at <80 pitches after maybe five innings of work. Boston has also only struck out 18.8% of the time versus LHPs in the last month while being an above average offense (108 wRC+). However, the Red Sox are dealing with some COVID issues. Two key offensive players (Xander Bogaerts & Kiké Hernandez) recently testing positive and won’t be available for a while. McClanahan had an excellent game against Boston a month ago (6.0 IP, 88 pitches, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 W, 1 QS, 25.9 DKFP, 46 FDFP). With the Red Sox not at 100%, I could envision McClanahan posting up a similar performance at home where he’ll step on the mound in the best pitching environment on the slate.

Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | @ COL

To state the obvious, Toussaint carries some notable risk based on the Coors Field match-up but that should keep his ownership fairly low even on a small slate. He’s essentially a risk/reward leverage play. Toussaint has posted some solid numbers on the season (3.60 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 24.1% kRate) and has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his seven starts. However, he does get hit hard (47.7% HardHit%) with a high average exit velocity (92.0 mph), which is not a great recipe for success at Coors Field. The Rockies are also a very tough match-up when they’re at Coors and they’ve hit .322 vs. RHPs at home over the last month alongside a .424 wOBA, .308 ISO, and 139 wRC+ -- scary stuff! I wouldn’t roll with Toussaint if you’re only playing single entries or less than a handful of lineups. But if you’re an MME guy like our boy @ZeroInDenver, it may not be a bad idea to have some Touki exposure. He should be motivated to pitch well here tonight as he looks to potentially overtake Drew Smyly’s spot in the Braves starting rotation. Atlanta will also be moderately strong favorites (-160) so, if Toussaint can snag that win bonus, that could offset some hits/runs that he may allow.

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA

There isn’t much for value among the ten pitchers on the slate so Carrasco may be about as cheap as I’d feel comfortable going. His $6,800 salary on FanDuel makes him really intriguing if you’re also looking to load up on Coors Field bats. Carrasco only recently returned to action just over a month ago and through six starts (23.1 IP) he has acquired an ugly 6.94 ERA. However, this is one of the reasons why a pitcher’s ERA isn’t necessarily indicative of their true performance. Carrasco’s 3.68 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) are much closer to where his ERA *should* be. Those still aren’t incredible numbers, but certainly not bad and significantly better than that near 7.00 ERA. Carrasco’s 23% kRate and 1.29 WHIP are right around league average and he actually leads the slate with a low 4.0% Walk Rate. The major draw here is the match-up that he’ll receive. Against RHPs over the last two weeks (305 plate appearances), Miami is hitting only .212 with a .256 wOBA, .096 ISO, 61 wRC+ and 26.6% kRate -- all bottom five offensive metrics in that span. Carrasco has yet to throw more than 78 pitches in a game this season but he has hit that mark in each of his previous two starts (and 78 pitches is all it took to make it through seven full innings in his last start vs. SF). Perhaps we see Carrasco go into the mid-80s with his pitch count today in what will be one of the most favorable match-ups he could ask for.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Atlanta Braves vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

• Colorado Rockies vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

Secondary Stacks

Cleveland Indians vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

Cleveland is averaging six runs per game over their last seven and have been finding plenty of success against lefty pitching. Across the last month vs. LHPs (375 plate appearances), the Indians are batting .286 (ranks 3rd) with a .355 wOBA (4th), .210 ISO (4th), and 124 wRC+ (3rd). They also lead all teams with 18 HRs against lefties in that span as well. Mike Minor typically does a decent job of only allowing a maximum of three or four runs during his time on the mound (often about six innings). But one of his worst starts of the year came against this same Cleveland offense back on July 10th when he was tagged up for nine hits (one HR) and six earned runs across 4.0 IP. Cleveland went on to score 14 runs in that game. That’s of course history and not necessarily the kind of result we can expect today, but it still remains within the range of possibilities.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

E-Rod has pitched against the Rays twice this season and has pitched well. In those two starts (11.1 IP), Rodriguez held Tampa Bay to five earned runs (3.91 ERA) with a 4.43 xFIP, .250 AVG, .315 wOBA, 1.15 WHIP, and posting a 31.9% kRate. However, the Rays have become a bit of a buzzsaw when matched up against lefties over the last several weeks. They possess a league-best .369 OBP vs. LHPs in the last month along with a .281 AVG (5th), .361 wOBA (2nd), .199 ISO (7th), and 134 wRC+ (2nd) while striking out 19.6% of the time. Tropicana Field is indeed a pitcher’s park but that hasn’t prevented the Rays from averaging 4.96 runs/gm at home this season (8th most). If E-Rod doesn’t bring his A-game tonight, Tampa Bay can absolutely take advantage. The Red Sox bullpen has been fairly mediocre as of late as well.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

Even on a small slate against a lackluster starter and a pretty weak Cubs bullpen, I doubt many will look towards Pittsburgh for offense tonight. There is a reason for that. The Pirates just aren’t doing much with their bats and they’re currently without a couple of their better hitters in Ke’Bryan Hayes (hand, DTD) and Michael Chavis (elbow, IL). There is at least a chance they get Hayes back today and if they can muster four or five runs, a few of these dirt cheap Pittsburgh bats could present some solid value while providing salary relief thereby allowing you to pay for a pricey pitcher or some Coors Field bats. Keegan Thompson likely won’t pitch more than a few innings but in his last 10.2 IP, he has a poor 1.88 WHIP and 14.8% kRate. One thing the Pirates are solid at is not striking out often, so Thompson will have to rely primarily on creating contact-outs if he hopes to get through this lineup unscathed. With a little BABIP luck, the Pirates could find some success early on before the Cubs bullpen comes into play.

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

SS Wander Franco | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

SS Adalberto Mondesi | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS/OF Amed Rosario | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Michael Conforto | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

C Jacob Stallings | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

OF Myles Straw | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

OF Sam Hilliard | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

OF Bradley Zimmer | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

3B/OF, 2B/SS Ehire Adrianza | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

I’ll take the low-hanging fruit here and look for Austin Riley to get himself a dinger in his first career game at Coors Field. Riley has been crushing righties all season with 26 of his 28 home runs coming against RHPs. He’s batting .377 with a .461 wOBA, .308 ISO, and 191 wRC+ vs. RHPs in his last 20 games, including five HRs along the way. RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez has shown some poor reverse splits on the year and has accounted for a 7.29 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, .397 wOBA, .297 ISO, and 2.17 HR/9 vs. RHBs this season. When pitching at home, RHBs are creating a massive 51.9% Hard Contact Rate against Gonzalez as well. After facing off with tough pitching staffs belonging to the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers in their last eight games, Riley and the rest of the Braves should look forward to some more advantageous pitching match-ups in their series against Colorado.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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