Top MLB DFS Plays 9/2 | Offenses Setting the Tone

September 02, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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We may very well go the rest of the season without seeing the level of offense which teams produced last night. The Giants racked up 23 runs out in Coors Field, the Cardinals put 16 up on the board against the Reds, and Detroit, Atlanta, and Cleveland all cracked into the double digits as well. We also saw a couple guys belt out three home runs apiece (Alex Dickerson and Marcell Ozuna). It was certainly a wild night of games, to say the least. We’ll see what this 10-game main slate has in store for us this evening. Currently there are nine teams which carry a 4.7 implied run total or greater, so we could see several more offenses pop off tonight. The options at pitcher aren’t stellar top to bottom but there are plenty of guys who ‘could’ work out for us. Let’s get on it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TB @ NYY: Slight chance for rain but moreso later on in the night, so they likely play this game without issue.

CHC @ PIT: There’s a chance we could see a late start if rain is still around near the scheduled first pitch (7:05 ET) but the game should play dry once they start.

ATL @ BOS: They’ll be squeezing this game between two lines of storms -- one prior to the game and one much later. The window between those storm systems should be long enough for them to easily get this game in but check the outlook closer to first pitch (7:30 ET).

WAS @ PHI: This is perhaps the main game to keep an eye on tonight. Rain chances rise fairly high in the later innings of this game so maybe it starts out fine but gets called early. This is another game to check up on closer to first pitch (7:05 ET).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dinelson Lamet (RHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.3k | @ LAA

The Angels are a top ten team versus RHPs (.337 wOBA, 115 wRC+) and strike out just 21.3% of the time, so this is not the greatest spot for Lamet. However, he is having a very strong season and has shown some double digit strikeout upside already. He is posting a very strong 32.9% kRate with a 14.7% Swinging Strike Rate, which trails only Max Scherzer on this slate. Lamet does also have that powerful offense there to back him with run production, so the Padres go into tonight as the heaviest favorite on the slate (-210).

Triston McKenzie (RHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | @ KC

If you’re searching for a value arm, I believe we can give McKenzie another look tonight despite a less-than-stellar performance in his previous start. His MLB debut against Detroit (6 IP, 80 pitches, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10 K) was going to be a tough act to follow up no matter what. In his second career start last Friday against St. Louis, while he didn’t play great, it also isn’t like he got shelled, as he only gave up three hits and two earned runs across four innings. McKenzie just didn’t rack up the strikeouts (only had three) and he had some control issues, as he walked three batters. The Royals should be a much more forgiving match-up, as they rank near the bottom of the league in many key offensive categories against RHPs: .232 AVG (24th), .303 wOBA (27th), 88 wRC+ (26th). They also strike out a decent amount with a 24.4% kRate. If McKenzie sees around 85 pitches or so, I believe he’s capable of reaching that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold and there could definitely be room for more fantasy points beyond that. Cleveland will be solid favorites tonight with -155 odds to win.

Others to Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.2k | @ PHI

Difficult match-up but this is Max Scherzer we’re talking about. Across 211 plate appearances against the current Phillies roster, Scherzer has held them to a .148 AVG and .214 wOBA while posting a massive 38.4% kRate. Philly is absolutely one of the hottest teams in baseball, after winning seven of their last eight games, but Scherzer is fully capable of halting that momentum. Remember to check up on the weather for this game later on.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TB

Montgomery is going to be an intriguing value pitcher tonight, as the Rays tend to struggle a bit more against lefties. They still have average/above average numbers against LHPs but they’re not the same sort of top 10 offense when facing a righty on the mound. Against LHPs, the Rays also strike out with a high 26.3% kRate. Montgomery isn’t the biggest strikeout guy (20% kRate) but he holds a solid 12.7% SwStr% and doesn’t give up many free bases, with just a 3% Walk Rate. His 82.9 mph average exit velo and 28% Hard Contact Rate allowed are also the best figures among today’s pitchers. I believe there’s a decent chance he can go out there and pitch a solid five or six innings while perhaps snagging around a strikeout per inning.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: No Coors Field on the main slate today so we don’t have to worry about that (which is kind of a relief if you ask me). But, early on, it would seem like the Atlanta Braves and Slam Diego Padres will catch quite a bit of ownership. I’m also seeing a lot of love going back toward the Cleveland Indians tonight but I’m kinda lukewarm on them today from a stacking perspective. As always, there’s nothing wrong with playing/stacking hitters on any of these teams but their ownership could be elevated.

New York Yankees vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), TB

Even without Aaron Judge (calf) and Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) in the lineup, we know the Yankees have quality bats elsewhere and can rack up runs against anybody. They’ll face off against Charlie Morton tonight. While Morton is a quality pitcher, he’s also coming off of a shoulder injury and hasn’t pitched since August 9th. A 36-year-old pitcher coming off of a shoulder injury doesn’t exactly sway me off of throwing some Yankee bats out there tonight. Through his 16.2 IP this season, Morton also hasn’t really pitched extremely well, posting a 5.40 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and has allowed a .296 AVG and .352 wOBA. Morton’s 11.1% Barrel% is also tied with Julio Teheran for the highest on the slate. I’m sure Morton won’t be given a full workload right out of the gate coming off of an injury, so the Yankees likely see most of their at-bats against bullpen arms.

Chicago Cubs vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), PIT

The Cubs have averaged 7.7 runs/game over their last three. They enter tonight with one of the higher implied run totals (5.2 runs) and are presented with a favorable match-up. It’s only a 14.2 IP sample size but this year Joe Musgrove has a 6.75 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, and has allowed a .397 wOBA. He’s also giving up a massive amount of free bases, with a 16.2% Walk Rate. Pittsburgh has a bottom ten bullpen to back Musgrove so the Cubs should have positive match-ups for all nine innings of this one. As an added bonus, they’re on the road, so they’re guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Chicago White Sox vs.Jose Berrios (RHP), MIN

This is another one of those “more contrarian than crazy” stack suggestions, because everyone knows the White Sox have been excellent on offense this season. However, I do think Jose Berrios carries enough respect and name recognition to where people will be hesitant to stack against him or just prefer to go elsewhere to a team in a better spot. As many know, Berrios is a super volatile pitcher and can throw a gem of a game just as easily as he can throw a complete dud. Even on his bad days, Berrios doesn’t really get pulled early. So if today is one of those days where Berrios doesn’t eat his Wheaties, then the White Sox will have five or six innings to capitalize against him.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

Turner and the Nationals had to contend with a locked in Aaron Nola yesterday, so people were, of course, right to fade them in that spot. But I don’t mind looking back toward a guy like Turner tonight. He has gone absolutely scorched earth lately. Since August 16th (15 games, 61 at-bats), Turner is hitting .459 with a .540 wOBA and .328 ISO. He has racked up seven doubles, two triples, three home runs, and three steals in that stretch while striking out just 13.2% of the time and ultimately recording a 242 wRC+. Zack Wheeler is a solid pitcher but Trea Turner has had no problem making good contact against him in his career. In 25 PA against Wheeler, Turner has a .409 AVG and has stolen three bags off of him. 

1B Eric Hosmer | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA

The Padres are set up to be chalk tonight but you’re not going to catch me fading them against Jullio Teheran. Through four starts and 17.2 IP, Teheran has definitely not found his groove out in LA just yet. He has a slate-worst 5.93 xFIP and 5.69 SIERA while throwing for just a 13.4% kRate and allowing a ton of base-runners with a 1.70 WHIP. He’s also given up six home runs already which equates to a massive 3.06 HR/9 Rate. Hosmer has clobbered righties this season while hitting for a .333 AVG, .424 wOBA, .288 ISO, and a 26.3% HR/FB Ratio. In 15 PA against Teheran, Hosmer already has a pair of homers against him. You probably will want to play multiple Padres tonight but if you’re going for a one-off, barring a surprise shuffle in the order, Hosmer will be hitting clean-up and has major upside in this spot (and is also too cheap on DK).

OF Victor Reyes | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

For my cheap one-off selection, I’m really liking Reyes’ chances to be a high-end fantasy Pt/$ play. I’m writing this before most lineups are released, but I assume he’s going to be at the lead-off spot once again. Reyes is a versatile switch hitter and against RHPs this season, he has a .317 AVG, .362 wOBA, .220 ISO, and a solid 129 wRC+ Rating. Reyes will bat lefty against Houser, who has struggled against that side of the plate this season. Versus LHBs, Houser has allowed a .338 AVG, .420 wOBA, 2.70 HR/9, 1.99 WHIP, and he has struck out just 10.8% of lefties he has faced. You really won’t need much out of Reyes for him to return value tonight but yesterday he did show what kinda upside he has when he went 4-for-6 with a double, a home run, and five RBI (35 DKFP/47.9 FDFP). I don’t think we’ll see that sort of performance again but another multi-hit night could be in the cards and, as an added bonus, Reyes is a legitimate threat to steal a bag (five SB this season).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Eric Hosmer | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA

I’ll do the double down move with Hosmer and make him my home run call this evening. Teheran has just looked so bad this season, especially against LHBs (.355 AVG, .489 wOBA, .484 ISO, 55.2% Hard Contact). Even if he just gets two plate appearances against Teheran, I think Hosmer has a strong chance to knock a dinger off of him in one of those opportunities.

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