Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

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Two awesome things happened in Major League baseball yesterday. First and foremost, and perhaps getting less attention, was the return of Carlos Carrasco after a three-month fight against leukemia. The Indians were on the road but the Tampa Bay faithful did their best to make him feel welcome. He threw one inning in a relief appearance. It was a great moment and perhaps one that will breathe some new life into the Indians who were swept by Tampa Bay over the weekend and are now 5.5 GB in the AL Central.

While Carrasco was making his emotional return, future first-ballot Hall of Fame member Justin Verlander was polishing off his third career no-hitter against Toronto. He joined Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, Larry Corcoran, and Cy Young as the only pitchers to throw three or more no-hitters in their career. That's some pretty epic company.

It's Monday, it's Labor Day, and it's officially week one of the NFL season. Today is a good day my friends. The theme for this slate is overpriced pitchers. I find myself looking at several options and saying "I like them, I don't want to pay this much, but I'm probably going to have to anyway...." Here are the match ups and Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook ⛅️

The one game to watch is in New York where we currently have it listed as a 35% PPD risk. It's still very early (I'm writing this at 8 am EST) but there is a 40% chance of rain starting about an hour prior to the game and that increases throughout the day. Remember, the main slate starts at 1:05 pm EST today so we have less time to watch this than normal. Outside of that, there is nothing standing out. We have a game in Wrigley but the winds are forecast to be very calm and a non-issue. If any of you are in the path of Hurricane Dorian please stay safe. Our friend and colleague, Ryan Humphries, is under a mandatory evacuation order right now, hence why I'm covering on a Monday.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jake Odorizzi, MIN | DK: $10.5K, FD: $9.7K | RHP | vs. Detroit

Case and point, I really don't want to pay this much for Odorizzi but it feels like we will have to today. I've been skeptical of him all season. He got off to an incredibly hot start but all his numbers told us it wasn't real and regression would be coming. That finally hit mid-season with a seven start stretch that saw him carry a 7.99 ERA and give up 10 home runs. He's since settled back down again going 3-1 over his last six starts with a 2.65 ERA (4.40 SIERA), 25% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walks. Ultimately, I expect him to finish the year somewhere closer to the SIERA which would make this price tag for too high. However, considering he's currently on an upward trend, he has the capability of putting up strikeouts, and this is a dream spot against this awful Detroit offense. I think we are going to be forced to pay for him today. There's nothing else in this price range I like. Syndergaard has been awful recently and has a much tougher match up against the Nationals. Minor in Yankee Stadium? Nope. Soroka has zero strikeout upside which makes it really difficult for him to pay off his high salary. Everything is pointing me back to Odorizzi today.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY | DK: $8.1K, FD: $8K | RHP | vs. Texas

He's been unreliable this season to say the least, mixing in some excellent starts with some really bad ones. He's been more consistent as of late with a 3.31 ERA (4.29 SIERA) and 1.01 WHIP in August. What I do like about him is the run prevention abilities. He's turning into an innings eater with low strikeout upside but has forced 55.6% ground balls over the past month. Obviously, the 17.6% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. He's had just one game in his last five starts with more than five strikeouts. That brings us to today where he will take on a strikeout happy Texas Rangers squad. They've won just four of their last 10 games and are just 27-42 on the road this season (compared to 40-29 at home). They are in the bottom half of the league against right-handed pitching and have the fourth highest strikeout rate at 25.6%. Tanaka won't blow the doors off this slate but he should be able to get through at least six innings, keep the damage to a minimum, and see an increase to his strikeout rate given the match up.

Ryan Yarbrough, TB | DK: $9.4K, FD: $7.6K | LHP | vs. Baltimore

Large pricing discrepancy on Yarbrough between the two sites today that needs to be highlighted. On DraftKings, he's the fourth most expensive pitcher on the slate but on FanDuel, with an $1800 discount, he comes out to be the eighth most expensive pitcher. It's a great match up against the Orioles who have a .312 wOBA, .161 ISO, and a 25.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Since August 11th, Yarbrough has transitioned to a full starter and has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts. He has an impressive 1.42 ERA (3.07 SIERA), 0.55 WHIP, and a ridiculous 30.8% strikeouts compared to just 1.1% walks. He's doing an outstanding job limiting hard contact. He's allowing above average 45.8% fly balls but just a 3.7% HR/FB rate and only 28.3% hard contact during this span. His price on DraftKings is difficult. At first glance, my reaction was he's too expensive but truth be told I don't love anyone around him either (unless you go all the way up to Odorizzi) and this is an outstanding match up. This is another example of feeling forced to pay a little more than you'd like. He's a steal on FanDuel given how well he's been pitching recently they haven't done enough to adjust his price to the recent production (he's still priced like a bulk reliever).

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Jordan Zimmermann, DET

Zimmermann has actually been, dare I say, serviceable over the past month posing a 3.27 ERA and 21 strikeouts to just two walks in 22 innings pitched. With that said, a .211 BABIP against him during that stretch and a 43.3% hard contact rate suggest "luck" and not "skill." As I've done all season, I'm going to side with this powerful Minnesota lineup today. CJ Cron is standing out with three straight double-digit fantasy performances. Eddie Rosario has been a bit cold of late but this is a great rebound spot. He has a solid 21 plate appearances against Zimmermann and owns an .899 wOBA+ISO including two home runs. The Twins have an implied total of 5.3 runs so you can feel good about this lineup from top to bottom.

Chicago Cubs vs. Justus Sheffield, SEA

Sheffield is a top end prospect but he hasn't shown much at the major league level so far. Seattle, who is playing for nothing, will continue to roll him out there so he can gain some valuable experience and the Mariners can start to evaluate their situation for next season. In his first three appearances (one relief and two starts) he has an ugly 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. His strikeout rate has been average so far with 11 strikeouts in 11 innings pitched (20%) but he's also walked seven batters giving him a very high 12.7% walk rate. We should continue to attack him until he gives us a reason not to. Best part about the Cubs today? They are cheap on DraftKings. Bryant, Castellanos, and Baez are all $4.3K or less despite all of them owning a .700 wOBA+ISO or better against left-handed pitching.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Drew Smyly, PHI

After a couple of strong starts to begin his Phillies career, Smyly has since imploded. In August he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He's allowed 43.6% fly balls, 42.5% hard contact, and a 26.5% HR/FB rate in his past five outings. Did I mention this game was in Great American "Small" Park? This is a great match up against a struggling pitcher, it's an excellent hitter's park, and the Reds are very affordable (outside of Aquino of course). Interestingly, Smyly has allowed a .489 wOBA and .457 ISO in his last 20 starts to left-handed hitters so if you wanted to include Votto and VanMeter I think you could sprinkle them in (don't go crazy as their numbers against lefties are bad). I would focus on the right-handed bats here as much as possible including Aquino, Suarez, Galvis, and Senzel. Galvis and Senzel in particular look like great values.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Kyle Seager, SEA | 3B | DK: $4.0K, FD: $3.5K | vs. Kyle Hendricks, CHC

I'm not trying to go out of my way to target Hendricks but if you need a cheap one-off with some upside to round out your roster Seager is standing out in the stat model today. It's an outstanding park shift going to Wrigley Field and he's been swinging the bat well lately with a .472 wOBA and .413 ISO in his last 87 trips to the plate. In his last 54 plate appearances against right-handed pitching he owns a .841 wOBA+ISO.

Corey Dickerson, PHI | OF | DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.5K | vs. Anthony DeSclafani

The price is creeping up (it's much better on FanDuel) but it's hard to look away from Dickerson's recent production. He's put up double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last 10 starts. In his last 58 plate appearances against right-handed pitching he has a .395 wOBA, .321 ISO, and 2.41 FP/PA. DeSclafani struggles with lefties allowing a .614 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts.

Jake Cave, MIN | OF | DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.6K | vs. Jordan Zimmermann

I purposely left him out of the Minnesota stack discussion earlier in the article because I wanted to talk more about him here. He's been extremely volatile recently. Here are his fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) over his last ten starts: 8, 5, 0, 32, 25, 2, 7, 28, 4, 12. The floor here is low but with three games over 20 points (and one over 30) he's flashed some serious ceiling. He's also dirt cheap on both sites and it's hard to find this much upside for such a low cost. He owns a .692 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching in his last 56 plate appearances.

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