Top MLB DFS Plays 9/18 | Refuse to Lose!

September 18, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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We blast into the weekend with a jam-packed 12-game main slate. Without many clear-cut high-end pitching options on this one, you have to imagine that bats will be prioritized in most people’s approach today. This slate has some real high scoring potential with a multitude of offenses in promising match-ups. Also, we should continue to count our blessings considering none of these twelve games carry any significant delay/postponement risk! Here’s to the LineStar family seeing plenty of green screens tonight!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As mentioned in the intro, there is no rain in sight but windy conditions could impact several ballparks…

CLE @ DET: Winds OUT to right/center at 10+ mph.

ATL @ NYM: Winds IN from left at 10-15 mph.

NYY @ BOS: Winds IN from left close to 10 mph.

TB @ BAL: Winds IN from left around 15 mph.

MIN @ CHC: Winds IN from left at 10 mph. Temps in the 50s. Good pitching environment. This game has a low total with the over/under set at seven runs.

LAD @ COL: Winds OUT to left close to 10 mph. Temps in the 80s for much of this game. Coors Field is gonna be Coors Field. Over/under is at 13.5 runs tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.1k | @ BAL

Glasnow is picking up steam as of late. In his last five starts (31.0 IP) he has posted a monster 37.7% kRate alongside an excellent 2.67 xFIP and 0.90 WHIP. In that span, opponents are hitting just .170 against him with a .245 wOBA. The only knock you could give him is the fact that he’s allowed five home runs in that stretch (1.50 HR/9) but those 15 mph winds blowing in from left in Camden Yards tonight would certainly help in knocking down some deeper fly balls. Glasnow K’d up 13 Oriole hitters back on August 25th. He represents perhaps the most upside among today’s starting pitchers. The Rays are very heavy -200 favorites and the Orioles have just a 3.8 implied run total. If I’m spending up at pitcher tonight, I’m probably looking toward Glasnow.

Zach Plesac (RHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.4k | @ DET

Plesac is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel but DraftKings, for whatever reason, has him priced down as the eighth most expensive option. I don’t know, man… adjust accordingly depending on your preferred DFS site. By now, most seasoned MLB DFS players know the drill. Any pitcher who is remotely decent is going to carry significant strikeout upside when facing the Detroit Tigers. Is it always going to work out? No. But it does more often than not. The Tigers have a league-high 28.2% kRate versus RHPs and Plesac has a very solid 25.5% kRate this season alongside an elite (and slate-best) 14.2% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s shown incredible plate control on the season with just a 2.0% Walk Rate and a basement level 0.78 WHIP. He has permitted 1.54 HR/9 this season. With those 10+ mph winds blowing out in Detroit tonight, it wouldn’t be a shock if one or two of Detroit’s better power bats sent one over the fence against him. I still expect a very solid floor out of him in this spot and Cleveland will go into the evening as the heaviest favorite on the slate (-220) while Detroit holds just a 3.7 implied run total.

Others to Consider:

Kyle Hendricks (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIN

Hendricks isn’t a huge strikeout guy (19.7% kRate) but he has pitched very well at home this season (2.27 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, .207 AVG) and those very favorable pitching conditions at Wrigley Field should only help him tonight. Minnesota isn’t typically a team you’d feel good about attacking, but Vegas is pinning a slate-low 3.2 implied runs on their offense in this game.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.3k | @ BOS

Clearly quite a bit of risk with this pick, but in two starts (9.1 IP) against Boston this season, Mongomery has a 1.93 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 22.2% kRate and is allowing only a .235 AVG/.266 wOBA. It’s a small sample size of course, but Montgomery enters tonight coming off of his best start of the season versus Baltimore (3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 K, 5.2 IP, 72 pitches -- 28.4 DKFP/44 FDFP). The Yankees are very strong -200 favorites and Montgomery could very well position himself for a win and a solid fantasy score if he keeps his momentum from his last game rolling into tonight. If you’re eyeing the expensive bats tonight, he may not be the worst guy to spend down on.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: We should see quite a bit of ownership fall on the Coord Field match-up between the Dodgers and Rockies. People will likely look to stay on the red hot Yankees as well after they’ve produced 43 runs in three games. As usual, there’s no problem rolling any of these stacks out there, just look to differentiate elsewhere in GPPs.

Cleveland Indians vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP) + Daniel Norris (LHP), DET

Fulmer (9.27 ERA, 5.64 xFIP, 2.15 WHIP, 2.82 HR/9) is scheduled to pitch likely the first two or three innings followed by Daniel Norris (3.47 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 0.77 HR/9) as the ‘long reliever.’ Norris has pitched fairly well this year but Fulmer has been an absolute gas can and with those 10+ mph winds blowing out, I could see Cleveland tagging him up early. Norris can still give up some run production as well, followed by a mediocre Tigers bullpen. Overall, the Indians have been a fairly disappointing offense this season but they are in a nice spot to succeed this evening.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jimmy Herget (RHP) + Wes Benjamin (LHP), TEX

The Rangers will also be looking to deploy an opener + long reliever strategy on the mound tonight and neither one of these pitchers scare me off of the Angels bats. Herget and Benjamin have a combined 34.1 innings pitched at the MLB level and they’ll be backed up by a bottom 10 ranked bullpen which has a poor 5.03 xFIP on the season. The Angels have a 132 wRC+ at home this season, which ranks 4th in the league trailing only the Yankees (148 wRC+), Dodgers (136 wRC+), and Braves (134 wRC+).

Some "high ceiling" 4-man LAA stack options

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

New York Mets vs.Max Fried (LHP), ATL

The Mets have been on fire lately (143 wRC+ last two weeks, ranks 1st) so obviously this isn’t some sneaky off-the-wall suggestion, but I imagine many people won’t be looking to target a pitcher like Max Fried. With a 1.98 ERA and a clean 6-0 record across nine starts and 50.0 IP this season, Fried is having an excellent third year in the league. However, he’ll be coming off of a stint on the 10-day IL due to a back injury and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 5th. We likely shouldn’t expect him to receive his usual 90+ pitches, nor be at 100% physically. Essentially, every Mets bat should carry some low ownership this evening.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Luke Voit | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

Voit is firmly in the AL MVP discussion and with his fourth-inning home run last night, he became the first player to hit the 20 HR mark on the season. He’s just been murdering baseballs. He holds a monstrous .417 ISO against LHPs on the year and has a pair of homers against Perez in just seven career plate appearances.

C Will Smith | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryan Castellini (RHP), COL

Assuming he’s back in the lineup at catcher (or DH), I’m all about going back to Will Smith again tonight. He made this section yesterday and I mentioned that he had homered against Colorado the first three times he’s faced them this season. While he didn’t go yard last night, he still hit a double and drove in a couple runs. The Dodgers have a slate-high 7.0 implied run total this evening and if Will Smith lands in the middle of the order once again, he should have plenty of fantasy scoring opportunities. Also, he’s not one of the supremely expensive Coors Field bats but has comparable upside.

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jimmy Herget (RHP)/Wes Benjamin (LHP), TEX

I guess no one has been looking to play this guy outside of the Angels series at Coors, because Walsh’s DFS salaries have hardly budged yet he has been one of the hottest hitters in the league. Since Sept. 4th (11 games, 44 at-bats), Walsh is hitting .409 with a .540 wOBA, .568 ISO, 18 RBI, two doubles, a triple, and SEVEN home runs. As mentioned in the stack section above, the Angels are in a great spot at home tonight and Walsh has hit second in the order for the last five games. Angels manager Joe Madden should have no reason to change that up tonight.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jimmy Herget (RHP)/Wes Benjamin (LHP), TEX

Time to double down on my boy Walsh! In the last two weeks (min. 25 PA), he’s rocking a league-leading 1.108 wOBA+ISO and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Gimme another Walsh bomb for tonight.

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