Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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It’s time to make some midweek magic happen, as we’ve got ten games on the main slate docket to break down. If you glance across the match-ups pictured below, you’ll see that massive -500 moneyline for Gerrit Cole and the Houston Astros this evening. If that closes at -500, it will make the Astros one of the heaviest single game favorites in MLB history. I can’t say it’s unwarranted. The Astros are 8-0 against Texas in Minute Maid Park this year and Gerrit Cole is on one of the nastiest pitching stretches in recent memory. We’ll see if the Rangers can accomplish what the Tigers did about a month ago when Justin Verlander and Houston closed as -480 favorites, only to ultimately lose 2-1 in one of the biggest baseball upsets in the past 20 years..

Tonight’s match-ups with moneylines and implied totals:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

SF @ BOS, TOR @ BAL, CIN @ CHC: Winds blowing in 5-10 mph in all of these parks. Slight downgrade to bats. Boston will have game time temps in the 50s so home runs will be harder to come by in Fenway.

CHW @ MIN: Winds blowing out to left 5-10 mph.

TEX @ HOU: Obviously Minute Maid Park has a retractable roof so rain isn’t going to impact the field. But Houston is dealing with Tropical Storm Imelda rolling through, so if certain parts of downtown flood badly enough, officials may deem conditions too unsafe for fans to travel. It’s not the most likely scenario to happen but do keep an ear to the ground as we get closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.1k | RHP | vs. TEX

I know Cole is the obvious ace of the day but I’d just like to talk about the run he is currently on over the last month. Across his last five starts (35.2 IP) dating back to August 22nd, Cole has a 1.51 ERA with an almost unfathomable 1.31 xFIP, 0.62 WHIP, and 51.6% strikeout rate! Nutty. There’s really no point in describing how well Texas will match up with him tonight but, long story short, it’s not looking good for ‘em. At this point, I’d say Cole could mow down the 1927 Yankees with moderate success. Fit him in where you can get him in and just differentiate elsewhere if you’re overly concerned about chalk in GPPs. Do remember to keep an eye on the conditions around the stadium, as Tropical Storm Imelda threatens to drop flooding rains. I’d imagine if they consider the roads too unsafe for fans to drive through on their way to the ballpark then they’d make a decision to postpone well before the scheduled first pitch (8:10 ET).

Jake Odorizzi | DK: $10.6k, FD: $9.3k | RHP | vs. CHW

If you think Cole may have more of a “ho-hum” 30 DKFP/50 FDFP type game, then pivoting to Odorizzi while saving a couple thousand in salary space would seem to make sense. In 136 at bats, the White Sox lineup has just a .213 batting average against Odorizzi with a .276 OBP, .540 OPS, and just a single home run. Odorizzi’s last start against Cleveland got postponed after a couple innings but in his prior eight starts (44.1 IP) he was running strong with a 3.05 ERA (3.75 xFIP), 28.4% kRate, 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 opponent average. The White Sox have been popping off a bit lately for pretty strong run totals, so there is some bust potential here. But Odorizzi could check in at under a third of Cole’s ownership.

Adrian Houser | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | RHP | vs. SD

Houser easily feels like the most appealing value arm on this slate. It’s a bit concerning he hasn’t pitched beyond 4.1 innings in his last three starts but those were also some tough match-ups (HOU, CHC, @STL). Meanwhile, the Padres do not represent anything resembling stiff competition as they enter Milwaukee having lost six consecutive games. Versus RHPs over the last month, they are hitting just .206 with a .276 wOBA, .128 ISO, and a 69 wRC+ -- ranking 29th in each category. San Diego is also striking out 26.3% of this time in that span. Over his last seven starts (34.2 IP), Houser has a solid 3.12 ERA (3.50 xFIP) with a 1.18 WHIP, 26.9% kRate, and .217 opponent average. Assuming he pitches at least five innings, it’s tough to not see the value to be had here.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Ivan Nova (RHP)/Hector Santiago (LHP), CWS

Ahh, the good old opener + long reliever approach. Nova is only expected to pitch one inning while Santiago could see anywhere between one and four innings worth of action. You really never can accurately project the workload distribution with this pitching approach. But neither one of these pitchers is worth shying away from and the White Sox bullpen has been fairly mediocre overall. The Twins have a 113 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 4th) and trail only the Yankees and Astros with 49 home runs in that time. Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, and Miguel Sano have been some of the hottest hitters in this lineup and you can never discount the upside of Nelson Cruz.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), ATL

The Phillies lineup have a pretty large sample size against Teheran. They’re batting .275 in 273 at bats against him with 36 total XBH (19 HRs) and a combined .933 OPS. Teheran also just faced Philly in his last start six days ago where he gave up five earned runs, including three homers, and survived just four innings. Pitchers facing the same team in back-to-back starts has been a slippery slope for many guys this year. JT Realmuto, Cesar Hernandez, and Corey Dickerson are some preferred guys to target here.

Chicago Cubs vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

In Mahle’s last trip to Wrigley, he allowed six runs on nine hits (three home runs) across five innings of play. Mahle has given up nine earned runs and four homers in his last two games (7.2 innings) and tends to struggle more on the road. After losing to Cincy last night, the Cubs are now tied with Milwaukee for the second NL wild card bid. With the Phillies and the Mets both four games back, every win is paramount from here on out. Mahle allows a .385 wOBA and .257 ISO to lefties, so if you want to throw out a Cubs LHB stack out there, that may not be a bad idea. Kyle Schwarber is one of my favorite bats of the day. Elsewhere, I’d look towards Nicholas Castellanos, Kris Bryant, and Ben Zobrist.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

3B Eugenio Suarez (RHB) | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Suarez is making a late-season run at the home run crown after launching 12 home runs in his last 20 games. He’ll have a favorable match-up today with Jon Lester who, in 44 plate appearances, Suarez is hitting .359 against with five home runs and a .939 wOBA+ISO. Lester has given up a .318 batting average at home this season alongside a 1.56 WHIP. Suarez has a huge ceiling in pretty much any match-up and has a pair of multi-home run games in the last 10 days alone.

OF Kyle Lewis (RHB) | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Dario Agrazal (RHP), PIT

Kyle Lewis got a mention in this section yesterday and of course went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. Perhaps he’ll post a quick bounce back performance when he faces off with Agrazal who has put up some terrible reverse splits this season. Agrazal has allowed RHBs to hit .344 with a .407 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 1.80 HR/9 while striking out just 7.1% of batters. Through seven games, Kyle Lewis has launched all four of his homers off of right-handed pitching and will have a great shot at cracking his fifth four-bagger out of the park tonight.

2B/3B Joey Wendle (LHB) | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

If you’re in search of a cheap bat who could slap a couple hits with some potential to grab some other peripheral stats (stolen base, RBI, runs) then Wendle could be your guy. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (64 PAs), he’s batting .322 with a .366 wOBA and a homer, six RBI, and three stolen bases. Not phenomenal numbers but there’s a decent chance for a double-digit fantasy point day, especially if the Rays roll him out at lead-off. I don’t often pick on Dodger pitchers and their elite bullpen but Wendle may return some value tonight regardless.

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