Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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We go back at it with a hefty 14 game slate this evening! It’s no surprise but we are loaded with pitching options today -- headlined by AL Cy Young odds on favorite, Justin Verlander (DK: $12.8k, FD: $12k), who will be taking on a bad Texas lineup at home. The Astros and Yankees are also knotted up at the top spot in the AL standings with a 98-53 record so there is plenty of motivation for JV to keep it rolling today. Elsewhere, Brandon Woodruff (DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k) is making his first start in nearly two months after a stint on the IL. I’m sure most already do, or eventually will, realize this but DO NOT play Woodruff this evening, as he’s only expected to throw a couple innings as an opener with Gio Gonzalez serving as the primary reliever out of the bullpen. I saw some early “love” for him on LineStar so I figured that’s at least worth a mention. Blake Snell (DK: $9.4k, FD: $7.1k) is also taking the mound for the first time since July and should see around three innings of work, so in that case he wouldn’t be worth considering either. On the offensive side, there are ample options to choose from where teams should be in productive spots and, of course, Coors Field is in play once again. It’s a bit of a rarity on a huge slate like this, but we currently do not have any significant weather issues to worry about so we can jump right into the nitty gritty of this one.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

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Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | RHP | @ CHC

Clearly Verlander and a surging Yu Darvish are your best bets on the day, especially since both of those teams are pitching with some sort of playoff implications on the line (especially for the Cubs). But Darvish’s counterpart, Sonny Gray, has to be considered a premiere GPP pivot if you’re spending up at the position. In his last 14 starts (87.2 IP), Gray has a ridiculous 1.75 ERA (3.61 xFIP), 0.92 WHIP, 30.8% kRate, and a 1.63 opponent average. In four starts against the Cubs this year (23.1 IP), Gray has allowed just seven earned runs -- good enough for a 2.70 ERA (3.38 xFIP). He also allowed only a .159 AVG and struck out 28 Cubbies in the process, resulting in a 31.8% kRate. The Cubs are, of course, rolling right now, so this isn’t a safe play by any means. But they are going to be down one of their best offensive weapons with Anthony Rizzo rocking a walking boot for the next few days. Strong winds also won’t be blowing towards the outfield at Wrigley like they did in their recent dinger-filled series with Pittsburgh. Overall, if you’re playing just one lineup, Gray likely isn’t worth the risk. On the MME side of things, Gray could be worth going overweight on versus the field.

Adam Plutko | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.8k | RHP | vs. DET

The Tigers have actually been “not terrible” versus right-handed pitching lately after posting a 92 wRC+ against them over the last month (ranks 15th). But they have still been striking out a ton, with a 26.9% kRate, and haven’t produced much power with a .155 ISO (ranks 24th). Plutko has been pretty solid at home this season, where he has a 0.92 WHIP and has allowed hitters just a .218 AVG. He struggles with giving up home runs though (2.54 HR/9 @ home, 1.94 HR/9 overall) but hopefully Detroit’s overall lack of power will mitigate some of that risk. Plutko has a couple of strong starts against Detroit this year (as well as one dud) and I don’t mind looking at him in the mid-range of pitcher pricing tonight.

Marco Gonzalez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | LHP | @ PIT

Marco can be a little scary to roster, especially on the road, but he gets an ideal match-up tonight. Pittsburgh ranks dead last versus left-handed pitchers with a 77 wRC+ on the year and their .290 wOBA ranks ahead of only the Miami Marlins (.289 wOBA). The Pirates may also be without Josh Bell, their most dangerous hitter, so throw in a little extra bump to Gonzalez if that is indeed the case. Marco won’t have to deal with facing a DH -- extra bump #2. Overall, this is one of the better spots for him to reel in a 20 DKFP/40 FDFP performance, which he has routinely done lately (along with throwing out several complete duds).

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Disclaimer: The Mets (7.1 implied runs) and Rockies (6.4 implied runs) are once again top stack options by default.

Atlanta Braves vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

It’s hard not to like this spot for the Braves as they return home from their nine day road trip and will face Vince Velasquez, whom Atlanta has hit for a .400 AVG against in their last 65 at bats. VV has also given up 2.08 HR/9 this season, the fourth worst mark on the slate. He carries a poor 5.19 xFIP on the road as well as a 1.52 WHIP. Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, and Matt Joyce would be my favorite guys to target. All three have over a .900 OPS versus RHPs in the last month. Ozzie Albies has been slugging it really well as of late too.

Oakland Athletics vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), KC

Going back to the well again today with some Oakland bats. As a team, their 134 wRC+ versus RHPs over the last month trails only the Houston Astros (154 wRC+) in that time. They’re caught up in a close battle with Tampa Bay and Cleveland in a fight for one of the AL wild card spots and after losing a close one to KC last night, they should be looking to immediately bounce back. Jorge Lopez has seen the majority of his appearances out of the bullpen this season which, given the fact that he was often brought out in advantageous situations, his numbers likely have gotten a bit of a boost. Still, his 6.09 ERA (4.62 xFIP), 21% kRate, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.73 HR/9 are not what I would consider to be strong numbers. When he is retired for the night, the A’s order will see a Royals bullpen that has a league-worst 1.71 WHIP over the last 30 days. When stacking these guys up, I don’t know how you could avoid Marcus Semien, who has just been one of the most productive hitters in baseball lately. Elsewhere, I’d be all about some Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, and Sean Murphy.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), MIA

This one pains me a little bit because Caleb Smith was one of my favorite pitchers to roll out over the opening stretch of the season but he has simply fallen off lately. Across his last eight starts (42.1 IP) dating back to August 4th, Smith has posted a 5.74 ERA, 6.11 xFIP, 2.60 HR/9, and a 1.46 WHIP. His strikeout rate in that span is also way down to 21.6% -- he hovered around a 30% kRate for a while earlier in the year. He has given up 53.1% Fly Balls in the aforementioned stretch which is leading to all those home runs given up. The plans may change but Arizona is set to leave the roof open tonight, and temps could hit over 90 degrees, which would only threaten more risk of multiple home runs to fly out the park. The Marlins bullpen has been pretty terrible (5.40 xFIP over last month, ranks last) so the production should still be there even when Smith is off the mound. Wilmer Flores, Ketel Marte, and Nick Ahmed are some guys to consider.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

OF Nelson Cruz (RHB) | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ross Detwiler (LHP), CWS

I know Cruz hasn’t been dominating lately but, man, he’ll be tough to ignore going up against a meatball throwing lefty. Detwiler’s 2.65 HR/9 rate is the highest among all starters today. He’s allowing RHBs to hit .333 with a .440 wOBA, .279 ISO, and 2.92 HR/9. Cruz has crushed southpaws this season by hitting .298 with a .462 wOBA and .422 ISO on a hulk-ish 59.2% Hard Contact Rate. Oh, as if it wasn’t appealing enough, Cruz has three home runs off of Detwiler in just ten plate appearances against him. I really hope the Twins don’t give him another day off because this looks like a high-upside spot for Cruz tonight.

OF Kyle Lewis (RHB) | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

In just six games and 22 MLB plate appearances, Kyle Lewis already has four home runs to his name and all have come at the expense of righties. He’s barreled six balls off of RHPs in the last week and has posted an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph (top 90%). I’m convinced Mitch Keller isn’t as bad as what some of his results would indicate (he’s fallen victim to a ridiculous .477 BABIP and his 3.55 xFIP is nearly five runs lower than his ERA). However, for now, I’m willing to take some hot hitters against Keller until his luck seemingly improves.

2B Jonathan Schoop | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ross Detwiler (LHP), CWS

I’m gonna pick on Detwiler again with another Twins bat. In his last 20 games versus lefties (25 plate appearances), Schoop is batting .364 with four home runs, eight RBI, and a 1.147 wOBA+ISO. He’s also another Minnesota bat who has popped a home run off of Detwiler before. He’ll be worth a look despite being stuffed towards the back of the order. Schoop is cheap with plenty of value/upside in this spot.

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