Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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The amount of monster slates like this 15-gamer we have on tap tonight are numbered, so enjoy them while ya can! There are no real blatantly obvious pitchers or offenses to target tonight, aside from perhaps the Red Sox bats versus Keegan Akin and a bad O’s bullpen, so about a million different approaches feel plausible on this slate. For the most part, it seems like the weather will cooperate as well, so we should expect all 15 games to play without major issues this evening. Let’s jump right into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

A couple of games have a low percentage chance of getting hit by some showers and bring some delay risk to the table. No obvious risk of postponement anywhere, however.

COL @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Slight chance of a late start as some stray showers move out of the area around/before the first pitch.

LAD @ CIN (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low chance of a passing shower running over the ballpark.

SEA @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some storm activity is expected a bit north of KC tonight but if they happen to fire up closer to the ballpark, some sort of delay may come into play.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ATL

You have to go back two full months to find a truly bad fantasy result from Webb (7/16 @ STL). Really, you can’t even hold that performance against him since he was on a pitch count at the time (only threw 60 pitches across 4 IP) in his second start back following a five-week-long stint on the IL. He was fully stretched out by August 1st. In the nine starts since (58.1 IP), Webb has posted an excellent 2.16 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate. He locked down this Braves offense in their own ballpark on Aug. 28th where he went seven full innings on 98 pitches, allowing five hits, one walk, zero runs, and struck out six on his way to a win. Now he’s back at home where he averages 28.6% more fantasy points. The Braves may not be an ideal match-up, but Webb’s been essentially match-up proof. He’ll stand out as an appealing option from the top tier today.

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.6k | @ TEX

Cease got rocked in his last outing against Boston, but he was rolling along nicely before that. He leads all pitchers on the slate with a 32.5% kRate over his previous five starts and on the year, he has acquired a slate-best 14.6% Swinging Strike Rate. I do believe Cease will be a popular option today and the Rangers have been known to rock some chalky pitchers throughout the season. But Cease can counteract a few hits and runs allowed with his strong strikeout upside. The White Sox are heavy -210 favorites today and we should expect to get six or seven quality innings out of Cease in this spot.

Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHC

Houser isn’t a major strikeout guy (18.3% kRate) but we all know the Cubs can provide opposing pitchers with a nice boost in that department (CHC -- 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks). Where Houser really excels is through forcing a ton of ground balls (59.6% GB%) while limiting hard contact (15.6% HC% in the last month). He’s thrown at least 94 pitches in four of his last five starts, leads the slate with a 0.91 WHIP in his last five starts, he’s two games removed from a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals, and he’ll be pitching at home where his 2.55 ERA is about a run and a half lower than his 3.96 ERA on the road. The Cubs have been sneaky good lately and their 120 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks ranks 6th in the MLB. So, this won’t be a cakewalk match-up, but Houser has a pretty clear path to a successful outing today. The Brewers are also the heaviest favorites on the slate (-240).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

Boston Red Sox vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

> Akin: 6.83 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP with even worse road splits

> In 38 PA vs. Akin, BOS is hitting .361 with a .416 wOBA

> O’s have a bottom-five ranked bullpen

> Boston: 8+ runs scored in three of their last five games

> Fenway Park: #2 most hitter-friendly park

Houston Astros vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

> HOU is demolishing lefties: 152 wRC+ last 30 days (ranks 1st), 189 wRC+ last two weeks (ranks 1st)

> MadBum last five starts: 5.81 ERA, 5.68 xFIP, 17.6% kRate, 2.00 HR/9, .348 opp wOBA

> Arizona bullpen: 5.78 xFIP in the last month, ranks last in MLB

Secondary Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

> Toronto has a league-leading 164 wRC+ last two weeks

> Toronto is fighting to hang on for an AL Wild Card bid

> Pineda: slate high 90.7 mph avg exit velo, 45.3% HardHit% allowed

> In 75 PA vs. Pineda, TOR is batting .417 with a massive .526 wOBA

> Twins bullpen: 4.55 xFIP in the last month, 10th worst -- also allowing 1.66 HR/9

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), SD

> First MLB start for Velasquez since July 30th

> In Velasquez’s previous five MLB starts: 12.23 ERA, 6.48 xFIP, 2.21 WHIP, 3.6 HR/9, .503 opp wOBA

> STL hitting .286 w/ a .342 wOBA, .201 ISO, and115 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last week

> Padres bullpen, ranks bottom 10 in the last 30 days (5.05 ERA, 4.97 xFIP)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

> Anderson has shown poor splits on the road

> There was a sting on the IL in between, but Anderson has an awful 1.95 WHIP in his last five starts

> Giants rank 2nd with a 146 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks

> Braves bullpen has been trending back down

> East coast bias will usually lead to Giants bats being low-owned

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF/SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

OF Luis Robert | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), SD

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF Bryan De La Cruz | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Yoshi Tsutsugo | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | Elisier Hernandez (RHP), MIA

2B/OF Garrett Hampson | DK; $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Going with a “for fun” pick here to end the week. And it’s obviously not like I’m rolling with some scrub. I’ll be looking for Sal Perez to break the all-time single-season home run record for a catcher today. Perez is currently tied with Johnny Bench’s record from 1970 for most home runs hit by a player who played at least 75% of his team’s games at catcher. His 45 home runs this season is also tied with Vlad Jr. for the most in the Majors. He’s gone yard in three straight games entering tonight. Chris Flexen (0.90 HR/9 vs. RHBs) isn’t necessarily the ideal candidate for Perez to break that record against. I’m not sure if it really matters who is pitching against Perez though. He’s swinging for the fences every at bat and it isn’t as if the Mariners bullpen is all that great against RHBs (ranks 30th). Let’s get #46 tonight Sal!

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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