By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2020 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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Thursdays are usually an off-day for several teams each week, which can result in MLB DFS main slates getting stretched pretty thin. With just six games on the docket, today is no different, but at least the slate will have a normal lock time, as games will get going at 7:05 ET. These games pack about as much potential variance as you’ll ever see on a six game slate. There are a couple aces taking the mound this evening, including arguably the best pitcher going in baseball right now in Shane Bieber. There are also a few other pitching options who have strong ceilings but carry some serious bust potential (which is something we seem to have seen a lot of this week, though from more unexpected sources). Meanwhile, the nightcap game features the Dodgers traveling out to Coors Field to begin the first match of a four game series with the Rockies. Things could get interesting on this six-gamer, so let’s hop on in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

CLE @ DET: Winds blowing out to right field near 15 mph should give bats a minor bump (lefties in particular) but cool temps in the high-50s/low-60s will somewhat counteract those outward blowing winds.

NYM @ PHI: There’s a decent chance of light rain moving through the Philly area. In all likelihood it wouldn’t be enough to cause a delay or PPD but I’d do a quick check on the forecast here once we get close to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP) | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.9k | @ DET

If you’re playing cash today, I’m not sure how you can avoid clicking on Bieber’s name. He may very well be 90+% owned in cash and perhaps 60-70% in GPPs, by my early guesstimations. Guys like Jacob deGrom and Jack Flaherty have been some chalky SP busts over the last couple days, but it’s still very doable to still profit in your cash games when guys like that are 70+% owned. At this point, Shane Bieber doesn’t need much introduction but in case anyone reading is getting a late-season start on their MLB DFS ventures, here are all of his league-leading statistics: 1.53 ERA, 1.93 xFIP, 2.43 SIERA, 41.3% kRate, and he has an elite 17.5% Swinging Strike Rate which checks in second behind Jacob deGrom (21.4%). Simply dominant stuff. The Tigers also have a league-high 28% kRate versus RHPs, in case you need any more incentive to roll Bieber out. Cleveland is the heaviest favorite on the slate (-290) and Detroit has just a 3.0 implied run total. Fade Bieber at your own risk.

Dakota Hudson (RHP) | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | @ PIT

Hudson should be another fairly safe (by baseball standards) option today as he takes the mound against a perpetually struggling Pirates offense. Pittsburgh has scored either zero or one run in four of their last five games and just haven’t been able to offer up much of a fight offensively all season. Hudson isn’t a major strikeout guy, as his 21.7% kRate is about league average. But his 57.1% Ground Ball Rate leads to plenty of easy outs and guess what team leads the league in ground ball percentage against RHPs… it’s the Pirates (48.4% GB%)! Their 25.3% kRate against RHPs is above league average and their 60 wRC+ and .259 wOBA both easily rank dead last. We *should* expect a solid six or seven frames out of Hudson today.

Others to Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. TEX

Here are Valdez’s career splits when pitching at home in Houston: 87.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 24.8% kRate, .214 AVG, .281 wOBA, 67.4% Ground Ball Rate. Not phenomenal numbers, but very, very solid… particularly for someone who is a ground ball specialist. The Rangers hit into 52.6% ground balls versus LHPs -- more than any other team in baseball. They also rank last in the league against LHPs with a 68 wRC+ and they strike out a healthy 24.8% of the time. Valdez could be a reasonable pivot off of Bieber tonight (or a high-end SP2 candidate on DK to pair with Bieber).

Seth Lugo (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ PHI

Lugo has transitioned from a relief role with the Mets and will now be getting a traditional start for his fourth straight appearance. In his three starts leading up to today, he has pitched 3.2 IP - 60 pitches, 5 IP - 81 pitches, and 5.1 IP - 91 pitches. In those 14.0 IP as a starter, he has a 3.21 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, and a 32.8% kRate. Now that the Mets have seemingly worked Lugo up to a traditional starter’s workload of 90+ pitches, his high strikeout upside could make him into one of the best pitching values on this small slate. The Phillies won’t be the easiest match-up but he was able to rack up 25.7 DKFP/42 FDFP on them 12 days ago on the heels of eight strikeouts and one earned run given up across just 81 pitches. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: With many people paying up at pitcher tonight, I don’t think they’ll be super-high owned stacks but people are always going to go in on Coors Field, so Dodgers and Rockies should still see solid ownership -- Dodgers in particular.

New York Yankees vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), TOR

The Yankees are probably set to be fairly chalky themselves after smacking in 33 runs in their last two games, but on a six game slate I’m not looking to avoid them. They’re slowly but surely getting their complete early-season lineup back to full health, as they eye the postseason, and they’re winners of seven straight games. Chase Anderson (5.81 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 2.05 HR/9) has made it past the fourth inning in just two of his seven starts and is clearly a pitcher the Yankees can tag up early. Once he is retired, New York will see plenty of at-bats against a Toronto bullpen that has a 4.89 xFIP this season (ninth highest) alongside a 1.43 WHIP and a poor 68.3% Left on Base Percentage (sixth lowest).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

The Cardinals have been a really strong offense against LHPs this season. Their .349 OBP, .349 wOBA, .206 ISO, and 121 wRC+ against southpaw pitching all rank 6th or better. They also only strikeout 19.2% of the time versus lefties, which is the third lowest team kRate in the MLB. Brault is a below average strikeout pitcher as it is (19.7% kRate) and he’s shown major control issues on the year, with a slate-worst 13.9% Walk Rate which has led to a really poor 1.61 WHIP. The Cardinals could manage to get plenty of guys in scoring position against Brault this evening. Backing him up would be a Pirates bullpen that is fairly average but does possess a 67.7% Left on Base Percentage, which is the fifth lowest in baseball.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

If you only run 1-3 lineups a night, just don’t even consider this ‘crazy’ stack suggestion because it is legitimately crazy and has probably like a 95% failure rate. But if you’re someone who plays 20+ lineups, I’d be looking to throw some Detroit bats in maybe 5-10% of those with a “ya never know” kinda mindset. Bieber is going to be uber chalk so if he, for whatever reason, comes out not on his A-game, or maybe he ate some bad Indian food last night or something, then any Tiger bats who find success against him would be virtually un-rostered.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

C Will Smith | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Smith’s .822 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 games trails only DJ LeMahieu among today’s current projected starters. In that span (74 PA), he is hitting .355 with five homers. The Dodgers have been playing him in the top half of the order lately and, while I’m on board with him regardless of where he’s slotted in at, I’m really content with rolling him out if he’s batting 4th or 5th at Coors Field tonight. Also, interesting note: Smith has homered against the Rockies in each of the three games he’s played against them this year (all thee games @LAD).

3B/OF Tommy Edman | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

Edman is just a solid hitter who will rarely give you a goose egg in your lineups, and he’s particularly effective versus lefties. Edman is playing in just his second season and has just 110 career at-bats against LHPs, but in those opportunities he is batting .336 with a .413 wOBA, .282 ISO, and 161 wRC+. He should be slotted either first or second in the order and be able to get a couple cracks at Steven Brault today.

OF Brett Gardner | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), TOR

Gardner isn’t a lock to make the lineup tonight but if he does, he’s cheap on both sites and doesn’t need to do a whole lot in order to pay off these salaries. Gardner is having arguably his worst season as a professional, so these DFS prices are pretty warranted. He’s only hitting .185 this year with a .302 wOBA (.206/.333 vs. RHPs) but he is also due for some positive regression. His .216 BABIP this season is well below his .304 career BABIP so it would seem that he’s fallen victim to his fair share of bad luck in 2020 (haven’t we all?). But Chase Anderson has been terrible against LHBs (.333 AVG, .445 wOBA, .333 ISO) so Gardner could slap a hit or two off of him today. Maybe the 37-year-old vet can send one over the fence, who knows!

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Hicks | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), TOR

I’ll consider any Yankee versus Anderson today, as will most folks. As mentioned above, Anderson has had some rough splits versus lefty bats this season and the switch-hitting Hicks has just a little bit more pop than Brett Gardner, so I’ll say he gets one over the fence tonight.

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