Top MLB DFS Plays 9/16 | Will Robbie Ray Bounce Back?

September 16, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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It’s been a pretty wild (and weird) week in the NFL, which is where a lot of people’s attention is at currently, but remember to take advantage of the fact that folks are losing focus on MLB. Baseball DFS is considered a grind for good reason! Monday will bring us a modest seven game slate to break down. This one gets rolling a little later than what we’re used to, with games beginning at 7:40 pm ET. This is a Coors Field slate so be prepared to get a little creative if you’re hoping to spend up on some Mets and Rockies bats. Aside from some ~10 mph winds blowing in at Minnesota and Chicago, which should help out the pitchers, there are no significant weather concerns tonight.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.2k | LHP | vs. MIA

It’s a difficult call but with Strasburg facing a tough Cardinals team and Berrios showing some late-season inconsistencies, if there were one top pitcher I’d feel best about spending up on it has to be Robbie Ray. Clearly Ray presents his own risks as well after showing some recent control issues and he is coming off of his worst game of the season. However, you know there’s double-digit strikeout upside given the Marlins match-up. Miami is a super righty heavy team which isn’t ideal for Ray (1.43 WHIP vs. RHBs) but he has struck out 34.7% of right-handed hitters at home this season. Miami’s .290 wOBA versus lefty pitchers this year is the worst mark in baseball and over the last month they are striking out 24.2% of the time. Ray is a bit more trustworthy at home, where he averages and additional +3.9 DKFP. And after pitching on the road in five of his last six starts, we should expect good things as he returns to the mound in Arizona tonight. The D-backs are strong -210 favorites and Miami has an implied team total of just 3.7 runs.

Tanner Roark | DK: $9.3k, FD: $7.9k | RHP | vs. KC

Roark is an interesting option to pivot to today. Oakland is the heaviest favored team on this slate at -300 and since being traded to the A’s, Roark has pitched very well at the Coliseum. He is 3-0 in four home starts in Oakland with a 1.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 24 innings. In that time he has also stranded 91.9% of batters. The Royals have only a 79 wRC+ versus RHPs in the last month (ranks 23rd) alongside a .295 wOBA (24th) and .159 ISO (23rd). The strikeout upside isn’t crazy with him, but in the third most pitcher-friendly environment with a ‘plus’ match-up, I’d look for Roark to net somewhere in the range of 20 DKFP/40 FDFP with an easy pathway to a win and quality start.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Disclaimer: The Mets (7.1 implied runs) and Rockies (6.4 implied runs) are by default two top stack options.

Oakland Athletics vs. Glenn Sparkman (RHP), KC

The A’s are straight up rolling right now and over the last month their 135 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching is bested only by the Houston Astros (152 wRC+). Oakland hammered in seven runs on nine hits against Sparkman when they last saw him two and a half weeks ago. Sparkman has been awful on the road this year where he has posted an 8.59 ERA, 6.42 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, .332 opponent average and has given up 2.81 home runs per nine innings. Really I like the vast majority of this A’s lineup but if I had to narrow down the favorites, they would be Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, and Seth Brown. All three of those guys have over a 1.000 OPS against RHPs in the last month.

Chicago Cubs vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), CIN

If you didn’t pay much attention to baseball over the weekend, the Cubs posted 47 runs in their three game series versus the Pirates (15.7 runs/game!). Some of that offensive onslaught can be attributed to brisk winds that were blowing out at Wrigley (which won’t be the case today) but that’s an impressive display of dominance nonetheless. Cincinnati is moving Gausman out of the bullpen and giving him the start on the mound tonight. Since being acquired by the Reds, he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any of his relief appearances, so there’s not much faith that he’ll go too deep into this game. The Reds have a quality bullpen but these Cubs bats are obviously cooking right now. Chicago is hanging onto a one game lead over the Brewers in the NL wild card race so their motivation to continue their hot streak should be sky high. It's not yet confirmed but Anthony Rizzo will likely miss this game after twisting his ankle yesterday but elsewhere I’d look to target Nicholas Castellanos, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber. Nico Hoerner is an intriguing cheap bat as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

2B/3B Mike Moustakas (LHB) | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), SD

Moose can often frustrate you with a fat goose egg in your lineups but he’s also one of the biggest threats in baseball to explode for a multi-home run game. Since returning from a brief stint on the IL with a wrist injury, he has blasted three homers across his last five games. Garrett Richards will be making his season debut after dealing with a litany of elbow issues over the last few seasons. He likely has a ton of rust to shake off after posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 17.1 innings worth of rehab starts in the minor leagues. Richards may not last too long in this one before the bullpen will need to step in. But regardless, Moustakas is an excellent GPP target today.

SS Jorge Polanco (SH) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), CWS

Polanco has thrown up some zeros in the fantasy scoring department a couple times recently but many days he will typically be one of the better DFS floor options out there. He’s batting .360 versus RHPs in his last 20 games with a .623 wOBA+ISO, three homers, and 10 RBI. Lopez gives up a .200 ISO to lefty hitters alongside a terrible 6.20 xFIP. The Twins are a great stack candidate on this short slate but Polanco is a strong player to grab via some one-off exposure.

2B/3B Alex Blandino (RHB) | DK: $3k, FD: $2k | vs. Cole Hamels (LHP), CHC

Even with just seven games on the ticket there are quite a few cheap value bats to be had today, so it’s tough to pinpoint one guy in particular worth highlighting as a recommended punt play. Blandino will get the nod as the Reds lead-off hitter versus the Cubs and represents some solid upside for some extremely cheap salaries. He’s only batting .230 in 22 at bats this season but he has gotten on base 42.4% of the time. Hamels doesn’t really give up much at home (2.66 ERA) and the Reds have been awful versus lefty pitching lately, but I’ll gladly take some shares of a lead-off bat stepping into the box at the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.

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