Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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What is this, the main slate for ants? Depending on what site you prefer, either a 4-game (FanDuel) or 3-game (DraftKings) main slate will head your way today. Keep in mind that both begin earlier than usual. FanDuel has included the NYY @ BAL (5:05 ET) game at the start of its slate while DraftKings will lead off with CHC @ PHI (6:05 ET) -- keep those early start times in mind! I’ll primarily focus on the three mutually shared games but will throw in some plays from the NYY @ BAL game as well for the FanDuel folks. Like this slate size, I’ll be keeping this newsletter short and sweet in an effort to get this sent out ASAP since things are going to get going early. Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The two later games are indoors so obviously no issues there. However, both NYY @ BAL and CHC @ PHI have some potential to see some rain move in around the first pitch or during the game. The same line of storms would be in play for both games but Baltimore carries slightly more risk due to heavier potential coverage. For now, I’m going to assume they get both games in but be sure to check the forecast closer to lock!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.1k | @ TEX

We’re setting up to see three “Opener + Long Reliever” situations so there aren’t many traditional starting pitcher options to choose from on an already minuscule slate. Valdez will be ultra popular, but it just kinda is what it is. He’s the most likely guy to push for 25 DKFP/50 FDFP. He’s one of the best ground ball specialists in baseball (69.7% GB% in the last month) and is usually going to be good for around 5-7 Ks. Texas has only had 90 plate appearances against LHPs in the last two weeks, but they’ve really had some issues with southpaw competition. In that span, they’re hitting only .198 with a .225 wOBA, 40 wRC+, and they’re producing a 50% GB%, which plays right into Valdez’s skillset. They’re striking out 24.4% of the time as well. If you can find some decent value bats, Valdez should be a go-to target tonight as he takes the mound for the heavily favored Astros (-220).

**UPDATE:** Valdez scratched. RHP Luis Garcia will get the start instead. Don’t like him quite as much as Valdez here, but still a top option on the day.

Dietrich Enns (LHP), TB | DK: $6.2k, FD: N/A | vs. DET

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Enns is available in the player pool for FanDuel even though he’s been pitching in long relief on a few occasions over the last month. Enns covered four perfect innings while striking out six and earning the win in his last appearance this past Saturday, which also came against Detroit. Despite only throwing 59 pitches, that long relief outing was strong enough to earn him 25 DKFP. It’d be great to see him hit closer to 70 pitches, but if he nears 60 again, he could post a very usable fantasy score given the dearth of options available today. Since he won’t be starting, he won’t necessarily have to go five full innings in order to qualify for the win. So if the Rays hold a lead while Enns is on the mound, he could earn himself another “cheap” win as well. In limited work this season, Enns has a strong 28.4% kRate and Detroit has acquired a 29% kRate vs. LHPs over the last two weeks. He’ll get to cover some innings in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark tonight as well and the Rays check in as heavy -210 favorites.

FanDuel Only: Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY | $8,800 | @ BAL

Remember to watch out for the weather here as an in-game delay could hurt Monty’s upside. He hasn’t been lighting it up or anything lately (3.86 ERA, 20.6% kRate, 23.2 FDFPPG L5Gms) and Baltimore has been hitting lefties well (127 wRC+ L2Wks). However, Baltimore does provide some nice strikeout upside (26.4% kRate vs. LHPs L2Wks) and the Yankees will be the heaviest favorites on the slate with -245 moneyline odds. It will be a big help if Monty can cover six innings and qualify for both the quality start and win bonuses on FanDuel. Montgomery should provide a decent floor and could push for 35 FDFP, which would be an acceptable threshold on this particular slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

FanDuel Only: New York Yankees vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

> Ellis has a slate worst 5.41 xFIP, 91.8 mph avg ecit velo, and 45.9% HardHit%

> Yankees easily lead all offenses with a 5.6 implied run total

> Best hitter’s park on the slate

> Baltimore bullpen has ranked bottom five over the last month with a 5.24 xFIP

> Baltimore bullpen is surrendering 1.68 HR/9 over the last month

Houston Astros vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

> Astros have a 121 wRC+ vs. Texas this season, hitting .272 with a .341 wOBA and low 17.1% kRate

> Otto has acquired an awful 6.92 ERA this season, though he has been getting extremely unlucky evidenced by his 2.99 xFIP

> Rangers have a bottom five bullpen over the last month: 5.44 xFIP, 17.1% kRate

> Astros vs. RHPs L2Wks: 24.2% Line Drive% (ranks 2nd) & 38.3% Hard Contact Rate (ranks 3rd)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

> Alexander struggles vs. RHBs: 4.75 xFIP, .344 wOBA, 1.74 HR/9

> Rays hitting .296 with a .351 wOBA and 13.3% kRate vs. Alexander (only 30 PA sample size though)

> Rays have a strong 146 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .268 ISO in their last 175 PA vs. LHPs

> Tigers bullpen is among the bottom 10 relief units in the MLB

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

> Pure leverage stack against Valdez, who may likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate

> Most bats are dirt cheap

> Rangers bats often go off when it is least expected

**UPDATE:** Valdez scratched. RHP Luis Garcia will start. Rangers stack is a bit more appealing versus a righty who should still probably be the first or second most owned pitcher.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

OF Aaron Judge | DK: N/A, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. PHI Bullpen

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

OF Austin Hays | DK: N/A, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

2B/3B Matt Duffy | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. PHI Bullpen

1B/OF Alfonso Rivas | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. PHI Bullpen

C Dustin Garneau | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. TB Bullpen/Dietrich Enns (LHP)

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Mike Zunino | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

Zunino versus lefties… it just makes sense. Against LHPs this season, he’s batting .345 with a monstrous .525 wOBA and .538 ISO. In just 104 at-bats against southpaws, he has 15 home runs -- that’s a home run every 7 at-bats! He has five homers in his previous 29 plate appearances vs. LHPs so his tendency to crush lefties has been even higher. Alexander allows a solid amount of power to RHBs, surrendering a .214 ISO and 1.74 HR/9 this season. Zunino will bat towards the back of the order at 8th tonight, but if he gets two cracks at Alexander, I feel good about his homer potential in one of those at-bats!

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