Top MLB DFS Plays 9/16 | Which Ace Do We Put Up Our Sleeve?

September 16, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Yesterday’s main slate was yet another stark reminder of the volatility that exists in baseball. I’ll willingly admit I got quite a bit wrong in Tuesday’s newsletter, and I definitely missed the train on the Yankees & Brewers offensive onslaughts. Whether or not you made it out of that slate in the black or red, we move on to the next one! Wednesday brings forth a fairly balanced, albeit a bit pitcher top-heavy, nine-game main slate. For the second day in a row, it also looks like weather issues will not enter the picture -- always a welcomed relief. There is no shortage of sports in-season right now, but MLB playoffs are less than two weeks away, so let’s try to capitalize on these decent-sized slates while we still can!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Not many weather-related issues to hit on today but always keep an eye out for potential changes leading up to lock. The Daily Dashboard stays up-to-date with forecast outlooks.

MIN @ CWS: Winds blowing out to center close to 10 mph. Bats get a slight bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k | @ PHI

There are obviously several very talented pitchers to choose from at the top of pricing today and you can make a strong case for all of ‘em. If I was forced to pick just one, I’d be hard-pressed to not go with deGrom. The Phillies no doubt have some bats to worry about, and Citizens Bank Park has produced a swarm of home runs this season. But, as a whole, Philadelphia has been a fairly average offense versus RHPs: .249 AVG (ranks 12th), .320 wOBA (16th), .165 ISO (17th), 98 wRC+ (18th). Their 20.9% kRate is the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage in the league, but deGrom had no problem striking out a dozen Philly bats across seven innings in his start against them back on Sept. 6th. The Mets ace has a slate-best 37.8% kRate and an absurd 21.2% Swinging Strike Rate. The Phillies offense has also been struggling a bit more in general lately as well. In the last two weeks versus righties they’re hitting just .225 with a .291 wOBA and possess a 78 wRC+. This all leads up to the Mets being strong -170 favorites today, with the Phillies holding just a 3.3 implied run total.

Brady Singer (RHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | @ DET

If you’re prioritizing bigger bats today then you’ll have to sacrifice up top at pitcher. Singer is coming off by far his best performance as a rookie when he pitched an eight inning gem against Cleveland last Thursday, allowing just one hit, two walks, no runs, and struck out eight batters on 119 pitches, reeling in 36.2 DKFP/58 FDFP. Asking for a similar performance is clearly unreasonable, but the match-up with Detroit does offer some upside. Singer’s 21.8% kRate this season is fairly average, but the Tigers have offered up a league-high 27.7% kRate to RHPs this year. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, they’re only batting .214 with a .262 wOBA (ranks last in that span) and 60 wRC+ (also ranks last) while still striking out at a high 27% kRate. I’d probably rather roll Singer out as a value SP2 on DraftKings, but he’d be a ultra-contrarian option on FanDuel. Again, I’m not expecting a repeat performance from his last start but he could reasonably hit that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold with some room to spare.

Others to Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.5k | vs. TOR

The gap between Cole and deGrom’s ceiling today is minimal so I’d have no real issue saving a few bucks and dropping down to Cole (or potentially trying to fit both into some builds on DK). Yankees are the heaviest favorites on the slate at -260 with the Blue Jays carrying a 3.9 implied run total.

Dylan Bundy (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ARI

Perhaps Bundy goes a tad overlooked today but he has only had one truly disappointing game out of nine starts this season. His 29.3% kRate isn’t all too far off from someone like Cole (33.2% kRate) or Giolito (34.2%). The only issue is the D’backs don’t strikeout a whole lot versus RHPs (20.5%). Bundy is still a good bet to put up a strong performance and he has hit double-digit strikeouts in three games this season.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Braves and Yankees will probably be fairly popular stack options in GPPs. They carry the two highest implied run totals of the day and have juicy match-ups. I’d have no issue rolling out guys on either team but it’ll clearly be more difficult to fit in one of those top pitching options.

Kansas City Royals vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

The Royals got blanked on the scoreboard in Detroit yesterday, but prior to that they had been riding a six-game winning streak while averaging 7.3 runs/game. I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if they turn in a quick bounce-back performance. Tarik Skubal is a rookie pitcher with 17.1 IP this season. In that time, he has amassed a 7.27 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, and has already given up four homers (2.08 HR/9). Backing up Skubal is a below average Detroit bullpen that holds a 5.29 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, and 1.62 HR/9 Rate.

New York Mets vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

Wheeler is a really solid pitcher, and not someone I’m normally going to go out of my way to attack. But he’ll be facing off against his former team in back-to-back starts (while also coming off of a minor finger injury, for what it’s worth). On Sept. 7th, the Mets earned three runs on eight hits across Wheeler's six innings pitched. Over the last two weeks, as a team, the Mets are hitting a stout .315 with a 148 wRC+ (both rank first in that span). If they can tag up Wheeler just a bit and force a relatively early exit, they’ll get some extra looks at a Philly bullpen that has given up a .325 AVG this season as well as 2.16 HR/9.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Minnesota Twins vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

The Twins did give Giolito some major trouble in his season debut when they hung seven runs on him across 3.2 innings. The White Sox ace has been rolling along pretty nicely since then, and Minnesota is not the most consistent offense, but they have several power bats that can go yard against just about anybody. The winds will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph in Chicago tonight -- could help carry some fly balls just a little bit farther.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Ramirez is a versatile switch hitter but he has been most effective batting righty going against lefties this season. He has six home runs against LHPs in just 44 at-bats while hitting .341 with a .512 wOBA and .500 ISO. All nine of Lester’s homers given up this year have been off the bats of righties and he has a very poor 5.32 xFIP and15.7% kRate to that side of the plate. Looking at Statcast splits, Ramirez leads all traditional starters on this slate with an average distance of 280.1 feet. He’s also a threat to steal a bag and his 10 stolen bases so far this season are the fourth most in the majors -- always nice to snag that SB bonus when one of your guys can snag a free base!

OF Clint Frazier | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tanner Roark (RHP), TOR

Frazier bats righty and his career numbers against both RHPs & LHPs are nearly identical, but this season he is showing some signs of positive reverse splits. This year he has a .296 AVG vs. RHPs (.280 vs. LHPs) along with a .415 wOBA (.388 wOBA vs. LHPs). I bring this up primarily because Tanner Roark has shown terrible reverse splits this season. Versus RHBs, Roark is allowing a .391 AVG, .513 wOBA, and .406 ISO alongside a massive 3.45 HR/9 Rate off of 47.5% Hard Contact and a 44.1% Fly Ball Rate. After Giancarlo Stanton saw his first start in over five weeks yesterday, he’ll be given Wednesday off to rest as the Yankees are going to carefully ease him back into the everyday rotation. As a result, Frazier should be back to hitting clean-up, as he has been in the last couple of weeks. If you aren’t stacking up these Yankee bats, Frazier is an enticing one-off target and is fairly affordable.

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

If Walsh keeps producing the way he has, I don’t see how you can’t at least consider him for these current salaries. In his last 37 at-bats (nine games), Walsh has a .405 AVG with a .551 wOBA, .595 ISO, six home runs, two doubles, and a triple. A three game series at Coors Field is always a nice way to boost one’s offensive numbers, but he was showing some power and plenty of production leading up to their road trip to Colorado. Perhaps Walsh won’t snag a spot high up in the order again, considering the lefty-on-lefty match-up. But Caleb Smith is making just his third start of the year, after a stint on the injured list (COVID-19) while also being traded to Arizona mid-season, and likely isn’t fully stretched out yet after just throwing 40 pitches over three innings five days ago.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Clint Frazier | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tanner Roark (RHP), TOR

I’ll be going with the positive reverse splits (Frazier) versus the negative reverse splits (Roark) narrative on this one. I think Frazier can easily club one out off of Roark tonight.

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