Top MLB DFS Plays 9/15 | Offenses Primed to Dominate the Slate

September 15, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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There was no newsletter yesterday due to the odd main slate structure between the two main sites but we are back it at today! A beefy 12-game main slate lands on our radar this Tuesday evening. Off the rip, while there are some very usable pitching options out there today, I’d definitely give the edge to the offensive side of things. Not only is Coors Field in play (OAK@COL, 11.5 O/U), but 13 teams currently have an implied total of 4.8 runs or greater. Don’t be surprised if this turns into one of those wild nights of baseball where we see several teams comfortably hit into double-digit run territory. One major plus to this slate is the fact that we currently have no threat of rain in any game location today! With a dozen games on the docket, that is a welcomed surprise. Plenty to get to on this one so let’s slide right into the thick of things!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As mentioned in the intro, there really aren’t any overly concerning weather issues for this slate but wind could play a slight factor in a couple match-ups.

KC @ DET: Winds blowing in from center around 8 mph.

MIN @ CWS: Winds blowing in close to 10 mph from right field. Could knock a couple fly balls down that otherwise would’ve went out. Very slight bump to pitchers.

CLE @ CHC: Those same near 10 mph winds blowing in at Guaranteed Rate Field will be blowing out to left at Wrigley. Very slight bump to bats, though this game features two of the best starting pitchers on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.8k | @ MIL

The Brew Crew is currently taking a not-so-fun ride on the struggle bus. In their last five games their offense has knocked in just seven runs total (1.4 runs/game), which included getting no-hit by Alec Mills this past Sunday. Flaherty may be able to capitalize on the current Milwaukee slump and he stands out as a strong option to roll out if you don’t want to spend all the way up on the slate’s top arm, Yu Darvish (DK, $11.3k, FD: $11.2k). After throwing 95 pitches in his last start five days ago, we should *expect* Flaherty to go in with a typical starter’s workload. Flaherty hasn’t been able to replicate the sort of numbers he had in 2019, but he also isn’t pitching poorly. Thru his 26.1 IP this season, Flaherty holds a 3.08 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 25% kRate, and 1.03 WHIP while allowing a low .260 wOBA, 22.9% Fly Ball Rate, and a slate-best 27.1 Hard Hit%. The Brewers have been one of the worst teams in baseball against RHPs (.289 wOBA, 26.8% kRate, 76 wRC+) so as long as Flaherty can go 5-to-7 innings in this one, we should get a strong fantasy performance out of him.

Deivi Garcia (RHP) | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TOR

Garcia was arguably the Yankees top prospect entering this season and he has flashed his potential through his first three starts in the majors (17.2 IP). In that time, Garcia has a 3.06 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, and 25.7% kRate alongside an impressive 2.9% Walk Rate and .240 wOBA. Across Garcia’s time in the minor leagues, he routinely posted kRates well above 30% so, assuming he holds onto a spot in this Yankees rotation, we could see him push or exceed 10+ Ks in a game. He’ll be facing Toronto in back-to-back starts, which always adds a little bit of risk for pitchers, but last Wednesday he held the Blue Jays to two runs on five hits across seven innings (95 pitches) while striking out six. Toronto is a very boom/bust offense and are an above average offense against RHPs (105 wRC+, ranks 12th) but over the last week they have hit for just a .259 wOBA and .104 ISO alongside a 60 wRC+. At his respective prices, Garcia should be viewed as a prime SP2 candidate on DK and more of a GPP pivot on FD.

Others to Consider:

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.2k | vs. CLE

With the exception of Shane Bieber and perhaps Jacob deGrom, Darvish has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball this season. He hasn’t scored below 22.2 DKFP/40 FDFP in eight consecutive starts and Cleveland is a bottom ten offense versus RHPs. On a day where I believe bigger bats will be prioritized, I could see Darvish going a bit under-owned. Darvish’s counterpart, Carlos Carrasco (DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.7k) could also be worth consideration as a major leverage play and the Cubs do offer quite a bit of K upside to opposing pitchers (26.3% kRate vs. RHPs)

Tony Gonsolin (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ SD

This is a clear ‘GPP only’ leverage play since the Padres represent one of the most dangerous match-ups in baseball, and you never know when Dave Roberts is going to pull his starting pitcher, but Gonsolin could pay off tonight at <10% ownership. Despite only pitching 4.2 innings, Gonsolin held his own against the Padres back on Aug. 12th (3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 8 K, 82 pitches -- 24.1 DKFP/38 FDFP). A similar result will be tough to replicate, especially since Gonsolin’s pitch count won’t exceed 90 pitches, but the potential is obviously there.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: With 24 teams in play, I don’t really want to spend too much time trying to predict what team stacks will be highly owned tonight. Obviously the Coors Field teams (Athletics & Rockies) will see some reasonable amount of ownership. I think people will also flock to both sides of the Braves at Orioles game as well, since that match-up carries a similar implied total (10.5 O/U) as the Coors match-up (11.5 O/U) but with more affordable bats. As always, stack what teams you like and if you’re worried about ownership with a certain group of players, just differentiate elsewhere!

Los Angeles Angels vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

Anyone worried about a Coors hangover with the Angels? Eh, maybe. But I never really look to put too much stock into that narrative, especially since the Angels have had a day off in between their trip from Colorado back to LA. The Angels ‘only’ put up 14 runs in their three games series at Colorado so maybe that will scare some people off of these bats. However, LAA has been a much better offense at home this season (127 wRC+, ranks 7th) than they have been on the road (86 wRC+, ranks 24th). They also get a shot at Madison Bumgarner, who is in the midst of a career-worst season. On the year (six starts, 26.1 IP), Bumgarner has amassed a 7.52 ERA and a slate-worst 7.17 xFIP while striking out just 13.7% of hitters and allowing a massive 3.76 HR/9 Rate. The D’backs also boast a bottom ten bullpen so even if Bumgarner is retired early, the Angels could have plenty of advantageous match-ups all game.

New York Mets vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), PHI

The Mets could end up being a bit chalky today but I’m on board regardless. They have statistically been one of the best offenses when playing on the road this season (.354 wOBA, 120 wRC+ both rank 1st). The Mets will now travel to Citizens Bank Park in Philly which is a park that is basically neck-and-neck with Coors Field this season when it comes to the rate in which home runs have been hit. Jake Arrieta has been super volatile this season. Between him and the terrible Phillies bullpen (.326 AVG, 1.88 WHIP, 2.21 HR/9), the Mets will have plenty of plus match-ups at the plate tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

Obviously the Padres are never a ‘crazy’ team to stack up, but this is more about leverage. Currently on LineStar, I’m not seeing a single Padre bat with any ‘love’ next to their name even though they just put up a seven spot against Clayton Kershaw & Co. last night. Gonsolin is a tough match-up but he’s not un-hittable either. Expect most of these San Diego hitters to be very low-owned tonight… well into the single digit percentages.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

Eshelman probably won’t pitch too deep into this game so I won’t focus on the match-up with him too much, though he is one of the worst starters on the docket today (6.05 xFIP, 5.89 SIERA, 11% kRate). I’d rather take a look at the en fuego run that Freeman is on right now. In his last 45 at-bats (12 games), Freeman is hitting.422 with a .575 wOBA, .511 ISO, .527 OBP, and has hit six home runs, five doubles, and brought in 22 RBI. He also struck out just four times in that span (7.3% kRate). If you only want slight exposure to the Braves today, Freeman is a tough one-off bat to pass up.

OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

There’s a reason plenty of batters in this game will be a little chalky today. Ynoa is another guy who probably shouldn’t be expected to pitch beyond two or three innings but, alongside Eshelman, he should also be viewed as one of the least effective ‘starters’ on the slate (6.42 xFIP, 6.19 SIERA, 15.1% kRate). In his rookie campaign, Mountcastle has been a hitting machine. He’s gotten his average up to .394 over his last 20 games, with five home runs and 19 RBI along the way. As a RHB, Mountcastle has hit above .330 against both righties and lefties, but he’s shown more reverse splits in the power department, as all five of his HRs have come against RHPs. I’d expect another solid performance from him today and there is a chance he’ll get the nod as the O’s clean-up hitter once again. Also, why is his teammate DJ Stewart (DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.8k) still so cheap? The guy has been on a tear lately and should be looked at as one of the top value bats on the slate.

2B Tony Kemp | DK: $2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Kemp has been far from incredible this year but, assuming he makes the lineup tonight, he’ll be a cheap Coors Field target for the A’s who posses a slate-high 6.2 implied runs. In 40 games (94 PA) this season, Kemp has a pretty decent .366 OBP. Senzatela is a bit worse against LHBs (like Kemp), so I would lean toward Kemp making the lineup tonight -- likely hitting 8th or 9th in the order. In order to return value, he’ll just need to get on base a time or two and let the more talented hitters at the top of the A’s order knock him around to score. The fact that Oakland is on the road could also secure Kemp an additional plate appearance, since the A’s are guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning. Second base is also one of the better positions to pay down for, so I’ve got no real issue ‘punting’ with Kemp in this spot.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Hunter Dozier | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

Since he missed the first chunk of the season, Dozier has only had 10 at-bats against southpaws this season but he is hitting .700 with three doubles against them. Going back to the start of 2019, Dozier is producing a .267 ISO on 56.3% Hard Contact versus LHPs. Matthew Boyd’s season has been an unstable one, to say the least, and he hasn’t fared well at all against righty hitters. To that side of the plate, he is allowing a .336 AVG, .452 wOBA, and .349 ISO alongside a massive 3.12 HR/9 Rate and a 26.7% HR/FB Rate. In 18 career plate appearances versus Boyd, Dozier already has a pair of home runs off of him. If he can get under one, there’s a solid chance it clears the fence once again. With Coors Field in play as well as that juicy looking ATL/BAL match-up, Dozier is a bit of an off-the-wall home run call, but I really do like his chances to yam one tonight.

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