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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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We’re coming down to the wire with about two-and-a-half weeks left in the MLB regular season so enjoy these larger slates while ya still can before we get into the playoffs! Wednesday will provide us with a 10-game main slate. Pitching options feel a little suspect today, outside of a few guys, but plenty of offenses carry some notable stack appeal. Currently, there are eight teams with an implied total of 4.8 runs or higher. Who beats those median expectations? Who underperforms? Let’s try to find that out!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The primary main slate weather concern lands on the COL @ ATL game. Otherwise, every other game should play without significant issues.

STL @ MIN (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center. Bats get a little bump.

🚨 COL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): 🚨 Tropical moisture from former Hurricane Nicholas makes its way into the area and may bring some off-and-on rain to Atlanta. There is a decent chance they could just play this game a little wet but if any heavier band of rainstorms runs through the area, a postponement scenario could be a legitimate concern. Definitely check on the forecast here closer to the first pitch.

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I believe this situation is risky enough to where I will simply avoid mentioning any players from this game below.

CLE @ MIN (7:40 ET, 9 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing in from right. Slight downgrade to hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ARI

Current MLB wins leader, Julio Urias (17), will come in as the highest-priced pitcher on the slate but he should also bring with him the most safety. Over his last five starts, while he may not be hitting a top-end pitch count (86 pitches/gm), he has been extremely efficient on his way to a 0.94 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27.9% kRate, and 4-0 record in that span while averaging 24.3 DKFP/40.4 FDFP. The D-Backs have been solid against LHBs and actually rank 10th in the MLB with a 114 wRC+ versus southpaws over the last two weeks while batting .273 with a .347 wOBA. However, in 66 PA vs. Urias, the current D-Backs roster is hitting only .190 against him with a .235 wOBA. If Urias can push for 100 pitches, he should end up with yet another solid outing with a strong chance of picking up his 18th win of the season (LAD -360 favorites). Given his premium price tag, Urias may be better suited for cash games but it would surprise no one if he lands in GPP winning lineups either. If you can find a few value bats or a cheap stack that hits, Urias could be the way to go at pitcher today.

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.2k, FD: $7,800 | vs. STL

Megill is putting together a strong rookie campaign. He will draw a decent match-up at home today against the Cardinals who have an 80 wRC+ (ranks 25th) vs. RHPs over the last two weeks with a high 25.9% kRate. Megill has been providing quality strikeout numbers this season with an overall 27.2% kRate and a 29.8% kRate over his last five starts. While he has been lights out against RHBs, the main struggles for Megill stem from his significant struggles against lefty bats.

Megill vs. RHBs: 2.30 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .188 AVG, 0.84 HR/9, 30.3% kRate

Megill vs. LHBs: 6.23 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .308 AVG, 2.86 HR/9, 24.1% kRate

Fortunately, the Cardinals don’t have many great lefty hitting options to roll out against Megill. We could get a strong outing from him in this spot with some real potential for a 25 DKFP/40 FDFP kinda day. He’s certainly underpriced at $7,800 over on FanDuel and would make for an appealing spend down option.

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CHC

After pitching out of the bullpen for much of the season, Suarez is beginning to really hit a stride in his fairly new role in the Phillies starting rotation. He’s been super effective over his last four starts (23.0 IP) where he has acquired a 1.17 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 27.5% kRate, and .214 opp AVG. In that four-game stretch, he has done an excellent job at limiting hard contact and forcing plenty of ground ball outs. The Cubs have a league high 28% kRate vs. LHPs over the last month and, outside of guys like Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom, there aren’t many Cubs bats in their lineup tonight who have been particularly effective against southpaws this season. The Phillies are heavy -200 favorites and Chicago has a low 4.0 implied run total. At $7,200 on DraftKings, he makes for a prime SP2 candidate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

New York Yankees vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

- Highest implied run total on the slate (5.5 runs)

- Yankees continue to heat back up, averaging 6.75 runs/gm L4Gms

- Best hitting environment on the slate

- John Means has significantly worse splits when pitching at home

- BAL bullpen over the last month: 6.95 ERA, 5.38 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP 1.92 HR/9

Chicago White Sox vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

- Facing an inexperienced pitcher making his second career start (he has an elite name, though)

- White Sox rank 2nd in MLB with a 119 wRC+ at home

- CWS in the last month vs. RHPs at home: .283 AVG, .370 wOBA, 139 wRC+, 14.3% kRate

- CWS are second on the slate with a 5.3 implied run total

- Angels bullpen has been a bottom 10 bullpen over the last month

Secondary Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

- Quality bounce back spot for HOU today after scoring only one run yesterday (possibly low-ish ownership as a result of yesterday’s stinker)

- Arihara Last 5 Starts: 10.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 12.3% kRate, 12.3% Walk Rate

- Arihara has provided a slate high 91.7 mph AVG exit velocity & 49.6% HardHit%

- Rangers bullpen has a 5.64 xFIP over the last month, 2nd worst

- HOU ranks 2nd in MLB with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home this season

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

- Kelly: first start since Aug. 11th, may have some pitch limitations

- Kelly has posted poor splits on the road this season: 5.40 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, .283 opp AVG, .356 opp wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 Rate

- In 104 PA vs. Kelly, Dodgers are hitting .323 with a .374 wOBA

- D-Backs Bullpen over the last month: MLB worst 5.89 xFIP and MLB low 15.7% kRate

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Indians vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

- Jax: slate-worst 6.72 ERA, 5.64 xFIP, 50.5% Fly Ball Rate

- Jax Last 5 Starts: 8.44 ERA, 6.11 xFIP, 2.7 HR/9 Rate

- Twins bullpen has been very mediocre lately

- Cleveland bats have been ice cold, but this is a decent spot for them to get going

- Due to their recent struggles, most CLE hitters should be fairly low-owned with only one or two exceptions (Ramirez and Reyes would be my guess -- still doubt they get too much attention)

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

SS/2B Javy Baez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), STL

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. John Means (LHP), NYY

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs, Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

1B Brad Miller | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

2B/SS Leury Garcia | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

OF Brian Goodwin | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

*2B/OF Garrett Hampson | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

OF DJ Peters | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Jose Siri | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

*Remember there is weather risk in ATL, but threw Hampson in here once I saw he was batting leadoff

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

In 14 appearances this season, either out of the bullpen or as a starter, Jax has surrendered at least one home run in all but two of those games. With many of the Cleveland bats struggling as of late, Ramirez is likely the best bet to send one deep off of Jax tonight. Ramirez has a stout .307 ISO vs. RHPs this season behind a 40.2% Hard Contact Rate. Jax has allowed a .280 ISO and 2.36 HR/9 to LHBs this year. The Twins bullpen has been giving up their fair share of homers as well (1.47 HR/9 last 30 days) so if Ramirez can’t get one off of Jax, there’s still plenty of HR potential for him in the later innings. There will be those 10 mph winds blowing in from right field in Minnesota tonight, but JRam has plenty of power to overcome a little breeze.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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