Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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A wild NFL week one has officially wrapped up and MLB will look to be the primary focus for DFS enthusiasts on this fine Tuesday. If you’ve taken the last several days off from MLB DFS with your attention, understandably, directed more towards NFL, well then welcome back! Let’s try to knock this evening’s 12-game main slate right in the teeth! Also, if you’re looking to expand your DFS reach even further, a brand new PGA season begins this Thursday as well and we’ll be sending out a newsletter covering the inaugural 2021-22 season event (Fortinet Championship) later today if you're interested! Alright, let’s set our sights towards these 12 games which land on the docket tonight. Best of luck, guys!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Things are looking pretty clear on the radar for this evening’s games. A delay or two is possible in a couple spots, but a postponement scenario doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Fairly warm with winds near 10 mph blowing out to left. Slight bump to bats in this already excellent hitter’s park.

CHC @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Basically the same exact conditions as in Baltimore so bats get a slight boost. These two games are tied with the highest implied total on the slate.

LAA @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Low chance of a light shower or two but not expecting much trouble. Winds blowing out to left at 10-15 mph.

OAK @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Rain chances are around 15-25% during this game but if anything makes it over the ballpark, it should be light enough to where they just play through it. Can’t completely rule out some sort of delay, however, so starting pitchers could carry some low-end risk. We’ll just need to double check the forecast closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $10k, FD: $9.3k | @ KC

As mentioned in the weather section, if Montas is going to be a pitcher you’re looking to roster, we may need to make sure a middle inning delay doesn’t seem likely once we get closer to lock. I’m going to assume things will play out fine for the time being. Montas has been a super steady source of DFS production for nearly the entire season and across his last 11 starts, he has just one game where he came away scoring fewer than 18.7 DKFP/37 FDFP -- and that was on the road against a talented White Sox offense. In that 11 game stretch, Montas has pitched at least six full innings on 10 occasions on his way to a superb 2.18 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 31.9% kRate, 1.01 WHIP, 0.50 HR/9, and has held opponents to a .201 AVG/.254 wOBA. The majority of the Royals bats have been fairly dormant lately and, as a team, they’ve been a bottom five offense versus RHPs in the last two weeks (341 PA), posting a 75 wRC+. Another strong outing should be in the cards for Montas tonight.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | @ SEA

Eovaldi has been on an exceptional run as of late, having acquired a 1.91 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 32% kRate over his last six starts. Surprisingly, he has just one win in that stretch but the losses certainly cannot be put on Eovaldi’s shoulders. Seattle has some pop within their lineup and they’ve been a borderline top 10 offense versus RHPs in recent weeks. Eovaldi has also shown some noticeable negative splits when pitching on the road (averages 29.3% less fantasy points away). So, this play is not as safe as it may seem. However, T-Mobile Park has actually checked in as the most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season in terms of adjusted run factor so, if there’s any road venue Eovaldi should be able to figure things out at, it should be out in Seattle tonight.

Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MIA

Oh man… I’ve been writing these MLB newsletters for the last three years and I can almost guarantee that Erick Fedde has not been highlighted once. But if you’re going for a cheap arm, he makes about as much sense as anyone else in this pricing tier and you best believe it is almost entirely due to the Miami match-up. The Marlins are one team that Fedde has simply locked down basically any time he has faced them. In 56 plate appearances against this current Miami roster, Fedde has held them to a .208 AVG/.210 wOBA while racking up a stout 35.7% kRate. The current projected Marlins lineup features six guys who have *at least* as 25.7% kRate vs. RHPs this season. Fedde amassed 10 Ks when he faced them last on August 24th and went on to score 32.1 DKFP/56 FDFP. A repeat performance of that caliber seems unlikely, but Miami is only being handed a 3.9 implied run total today. This play could go sideways quickly, but I’ll take a shot on him in a few spots tonight.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:



New York Yankees vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

- Great hitting environment

- Yankees possess a slate-high 5.7 implied run total

- Wells has a poor 7.15 ERA, 5.84 xFIP, and a slate-high 1.90 WHIP

- Yankees bats are beginning to trend back up with 20 runs scored in their last three games

- O’s bullpen has a league-high 7.09 ERA over the last month, including a 1.60 WHIP, 17.2% kRate, and 1.77 HR/9 Rate

San Francisco Giants vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), SD

- Arrieta Last 5 Starts: 9.58 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 14.3% kRate

- Giants offense: 163 wRC+ last 7 days, 137 wRC+ last 14 days

- Padres bullpen has been bottom 10 in the last month: 5.01 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9



Secondary Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

- Also a fairly obvious stack, but likely less-owned than the Yankees

- Sampson has allowed a .250 ISO vs. LHBs & .200 ISO vs. RHBs this season

- Sampson has a lofty 12.0% Barrel%

- 10 mph winds blowing out to left

- PHI carries a 5.3 implied run total tonight, ranks 2nd on the slate

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

- Small sample size, but in 18.1 IP on the road this season, Weaver has an 8.20 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 2.89 HR/9 Rate

- In 83 PA vs. Weaver, the current LAD roster is hitting .324 with a .400 wOBA

- LAD lefties may be preferred targets. Weaver vs. LHBs: .283 AVG, .358 wOBA, .276 ISO, 1.86 HR/9

- D-Backs bullpen has posted a league-worst 5.88 xFIP over the last month

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

- A’s are in a good spot vs. Kowar but should still likely fly somewhat under the radar on a 12-game slate

- Limited sample size, but in 17.0 IP this season, Kowar has an awful 9.53 ERA, 5.89 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP and is allowing a slate-high 53.7% HardHit%

- OAK gets a park upgrade -- their 105 wRC+ on the road this season ranks 3rd in MLB, averaging 4.94 runs/gm

- OAK could have issues against an improving Royals bullpen, but they’re still not an elite relief unit

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), SD

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

2B/SS Leury Garcia | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

2B/3B Tommy La Stella | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), SD

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

OF Leody Taveras | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

Judge returns to Camden Yards where he has smashed this season. In six games and 23 plate appearances at Baltimore, Judge is batting .500 with a .755 wOBA, .889 ISO, 393 wRC+, and he has launched out five home runs. He comes in with three home runs in his last three games and in limited work this season (22.2 IP), Wells has been getting absolutely abused by RHBs: 9.20 ERA, 7.08 xFIP, .362 AVG, .445 wOBA, .246 ISO, and has a 2.45 HR/9 Rate. Judge may only get a couple at-bats against Wells in this game, but even if he doesn’t send one deep off of him, that O’s bullpen has been getting rocked quite a bit as well (1.77 HR/9 Rate over the last month). All rise!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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