Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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I hope everyone had a great weekend! The MLB rolls on into Monday with a modest seven-game main slate. I’m sure plenty of DFS focus today will land on the Monday Night Football single-game contests, but there is still money to be made from some late-season MLB, baby! There is a decent mix of pitching and offense spread throughout these match-ups tonight. I wouldn’t say there are truly any ‘can’t miss’ plays and stacks either, so I feel this is a quality slate to get creative on. Let’s dive into some plays and stacks for tonight’s games!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The skies are clear everywhere this evening, so we’ll have zero weather situations to sweat on this slate! Play ball!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k | @ WAS

The slate’s top arm, Clayton Kershaw ($10.4k/$10.9k), is making his first Major League start in over two months after recovering from a forearm injury. He covered three innings with 49 pitches in a minor league rehab start last Tuesday, so he really could be limited to around 60 pitches. If that’s indeed the case, I have to pass on him given these salaries.

The next man up in terms of high-end arms today would be Sandy Alcantara. We aren’t really used to paying this sort of premium for Alcantara, but he is 100% deserving of the high price points. The man is just on an absolute tear. In his last six starts going back to August 11th, Alcantara has posted a 1.89 ERA, 2.32 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, and a 33.7% kRate while holding opponents to a .197 AVG/.242 wOBA in that span. The Nats have ranked 7th vs. RHPs in the last two weeks with a 112 wRC+ while striking out only 19.3% of the time. This is also the best pure hitting environment on the slate, however, Alcantara has been locking up quality offenses left and right. I don’t have any issues spending up on him this evening.

Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | @ NYM

At this point, we pretty much know what we’re getting out of Waino nearly every time he steps on the mound. It isn’t likely to be a strikeout-ridden performance (22.2% kRate in 2021) but the man has a knack of pitching very deep into games while rarely giving up too much production to the opposing team. He’s the true definition of a workhorse innings-eater which is a quality that helps counteract his lack of crazy high K upside. He has covered at least six full frames in 11 consecutive starts with 7+ IP in 8-of-11 of those games. He’ll be looking to keep a hot Mets team in check today as they come in with, statistically, the second-best MLB offense versus RHPs in the last two weeks (140 wRC+, .378 team wOBA). Wainwright has had some nice success against these Mets bats -- in 122 plate appearances against the current NYM roster, Waino has held them to a lowly .186 AVG and .229 wOBA.

Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MIA

There is not much to love about the value options at pitcher today. I nearly highlighted Jake Odorizzi ($7.6k/$8.3k) as a cheap-ish SP target but I just don’t see the upside. He could end up working out decently well, but he’s basically only been good for five innings of work and that often doesn’t include a ton of strikeouts. Also, the Rangers bats have not been pushovers whatsoever as of late.

So, we land here on Espino. On the season, Espino possesses a 4.35 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, and a 20.4% kRate. Certainly, those numbers are nothing amazing or even particularly good. But the major appeal here is the match-up. The Marlins often provide opposing pitchers with a significant boost to their strikeout potential. They’re striking out 27.7% of the time vs. RHPs (L2Wks) while hitting only .220 with a 74 wRC+. It is worth noting that Espino has posted a 30.9% kRate over his last four starts, and while he also has a poor 5.03 ERA in that stretch, he’s been getting quite unlucky evidenced by his 3.40 xFIP (which is closer to where his ERA *should* be). Espino is more in play on DraftKings as a risk/reward SP2 option but he has some 20 DKFP potential and this game boasts the lowest total on the slate with a 7.5 O/U.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Houston Astros vs. Spenser Howard (RHP), TEX

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TB

Secondary Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

- Gallen is solid but he’s getting a bit fortunate with his ERA and BABIP lately.

- This could all be about getting Gallen out early and seeing a lot of innings against a D-Backs bullpen that has a league-worst 5.77 xFIP over the last month.

- Dodgers haven’t been crushing lately but the upside is always there

- 3rd highest implied team total on the slate (4.7 runs)

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

- Gilbert has allowed a slate high 90.4 average exit velo & 44.4% HardHit%

- Gilbert Last 5 Starts: 8.58 ERA & 1.73 WHIP

- Boston ranks 2nd vs. RHPs in the last month with a 129 wRC+

- Boston ranks 1st vs. RHPs in the last month with a .234 ISO

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

- Manoah has been showing signs of trending downward, but many will still not look to stack against him

- Tampa Bay is the #1 road offense in the MLB, averaging 5.86 runs/gm

- Manoah struggles against LHBs (.352 wOBA, .195 ISO, 1.52 WHIP, 1.82 HR/9), so favoring TBR bats on that side of the plate could be preferred

- Solid park for offense

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Juan Soto | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Spenser Howard (RHP), TEX

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Collin McHugh (RHP), TB

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), NYM

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

C Christian Vazquez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Leody Taveras | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

OF Brett Phillips | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Juan Soto | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Alcantara is a tough dude to take a home run call against but the odds are certainly better for lefty hitters, especially one of Soto’s caliber. Alcantara has only allowed a 0.59 HR/9 Rate and .105 ISO to RHBs, but those figures rise to a 1.30 HR/9 Rate and .171 ISO vs. LHBs. Soto has also hit .421 with a .511 wOBA, .316 wOBA, and a pair of homers against Alcantara in 21 plate appearances and is simply swinging a hot bat in general. Nationals Park checks in as the best home run park on the slate and Soto has plenty of home run potential tonight.

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