Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Ahh, after what feels like weeks, but really it was just a rough couple of days, we have a slew of quality arms to choose from this evening. There are still some tough decisions to make, especially if you’re someone who only focuses on less than a handful of lineups. Pay up for pitching or try to stack up Coors Field and GLP bats? It’s possible to find a middle ground but you’ll have to get crafty. All-in-all, 13 games are on the main ticket today so the routes to take are endless. Let’s start the weekend off right and earn ourselves a little extra beer money (or new Ferrari money, either or)!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

MIN @ CLE: This is the game that really sticks out as a significant weather threat. They probably will start this one off dry but a wave of storms could move in mid-game causing a delay (a postponement can’t be completely ruled out either depending on when storms arrive). Rostering starting pitchers here would be a decent risk, bats slightly risky. Definitely check up on this one closer to first pitch.

BAL @ DET: The same storms that could affect Cleveland may still be making their way out of Detroit around the scheduled first pitch. Skies will be clear after that so a postponement really isn’t on the table. Just be prepared to see a potential late start for this one.

Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.6k | RHP | @ ARI

I’ll definitely be looking to get Gerrit Cole (DK: $12.2k, FD: $12k) in some lineups this evening but Castillo has to fall on the radar as well when looking at the high-end pitchers. Castillo has scored at least 20 DKFP/37 FDFP in all but one of his previous eight starts dating back to July 31st. In that time, he has a 4.44 ERA (with a much better 2.57 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 31.2% kRate, and a .232 opponent average while forcing 56.2% ground balls. After an 11-1 run in late August/early September, the Diamondbacks have since lost five straight games including falling victim to a series sweep at the hands of the Mets. Arizona ranks 27th with a 72 wRC+ versus RHPs in the last month while hitting just .217 with a .155 ISO. Castillo faced Arizona in his most recent start, which I don’t often love when pitchers are facing the same team in back-to-back starts, but he held them to a pair of runs off of three hits while recording ten strikeouts. We should see a strong floor from him once again tonight.

Adam Wainwright | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | RHP | vs. MIL

I’m honestly not sure if I’ve highlighted Wainwright once this season as a pitcher to consider. He should be worth a look in the mid-range since he is taking the mound at his beloved Busch Stadium. Waino has some of the more significant home/road splits you will see anywhere in the league. In 13 starts at home this year (77.2 IP), Wainwright has a 7-3 record with a 2.43 ERA (4.11 xFIP), 1.25 WHIP, 21.9% kRate, and a .240 opponent average while limiting deep shots with a 0.81 HR/9. At the end of the day, he is averaging 46.4% more fantasy points pitching in St. Louis. Milwaukee has been pretty average against righties with a 90 wRC+ in the last month (ranks 18th) while striking out 25.4% of the time. With Christian Yelich done for the year, this lineup obviously loses plenty of power. As a result of all this, the Brewers have one of the lowest implied totals of the day at 3.7 runs.

Adrian Houser | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.4k | RHP | @ STL

Sticking in St. Louis, I really don’t mind giving Wainwright’s counterpart some looks when in need of a cheap arm. I imagine plenty of people will look to travel down the “pick on Miami” road and roster Tyler Beede (DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.7k) as a value arm but I just don’t trust that guy... sorry, Tyler. Houser, however, has been pitching some quality innings. In his last six starts (31.2 IP), he has posted a 2.27 ERA (3.43 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, 26.2% kRate, and a .205 opponent average while producing 55.4% ground balls. The Cardinals have been a top ten offense versus righties across the last 30 days but I’m choosing to trust Houser to not get blown up here. He gave up just two runs across 10.1 innings in his two starts against the Cardinals last month and today Vegas is giving STL a low 4.3 implied run total. Here’s to this game perhaps turning into some sort of poor man’s pitchers’ duel!

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Disclaimer: All four teams playing in these extremely hitter-friendly parks should be given stack consideration by default and won’t be mentioned in this section.

Seattle Mariners vs. Dylan Covey (RHP), CWS

Some of the worst starting pitchers today are matched up with some of the weakest overall offenses. As a result, we can get some cheap stacks going out there, Seattle being one. Covey’s 7.69 ERA and 5.61 xFIP are the worst marks among all starters today. He’s allowing a .292 AVG with a 1.69 WHIP and 1.96 HR/9. I don’t think we can ignore Kyle Lewis, who has homered in the first three games of his MLB career. Elsewhere, Kyle Seagar, Omar Narvaez, and Daniel Vogelbach are worth considering.

New York Yankees vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), TOR

Kay pitched well in his MLB debut against the Rays last week but the Yankees will obviously represent a whole different animal to contend with. Kay also had nearly a 6.00 xFIP in Triple-A this season so I have very little faith that he’ll last long in this one. Once Kay is retired, the Yankees will see some innings against a Blue Jays bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball lately. Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and Didi Gregorious are some of my favorite Yankee bats to load up on. If Mike Ford makes the lineup, he’ll be worth a look as well due to the fact that he’s been crushing lefty pitching in limited action this season.

Detroit Tigers vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), BAL

Like I said… there are some terrible offenses facing off with some equally terrible pitchers today. Detroit actually hasn’t been a complete mess lately -- more average, really, as they have a 100 wRC+ as a team over the last two weeks. Brooks has a 6.21 ERA and 5.29 xFIP on the season while allowing 1.98 HR/9. He’ll occasionally pop off when you least expect it but I think some of the Tiger bats will get to him today. Harold Castro, Christin Stewart, and Jordy Mercer are some guys worth targeting. Grayson Greiner at catcher might be a decent guy to punt as well considering he is batting .360 since being called back up to the big leagues.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

1B Jose Abreu (RHB) | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Abreu has been a force lately, with homers in four of his last seven games. In the last month he is batting .330 with a .784 wOBA+ISO, eight home runs, and 29 RBI. His 179 wRC+ ranks 12th among every hitter in baseball during that time (min. 50 PA). Kikuchi is a perfect pitcher to pick on, as he allows RHBs a .296 AVG, .383 wOBA, and .246 ISO. He’s also given up 2.55 HR/9 at home this season so there’s solid potential for Abreu to crack another one out the park.

OF Nick Martini (LHB) | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jeff Hoffman (RHP), COL

It’s hard to pass up a Coors Field hitter that is this cheap and will be batting near the top of the order. Martini stands out as a strong floor play considering he has gotten on base at least once every game since becoming a routine starter in the Padres lineup, going back to August 31st. In that time he has posted a .349 batting average. Martini has virtually no power at the plate with his .109 ISO this season, .118 ISO last year, and two career home runs in 73 games, but maybe Coors Field can help him out in that department.

1B/OF Garrett Cooper (RHB) | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), SF

I’m really not a Beede believer today so I don’t mind considering some Marlins bats in this spot against him. Beede has a 5.79 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, and a 1.71 WHIP on the road this year while allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings. Cooper has a .324 AVG and four home runs against righty pitching in the last month (73 plate appearances) with a .661 wOBA+ISO and 149 wRC+ rating. He’s probably the most likely candidate to knock one out of the park for this Miami team tonight.

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