Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Thursday brings us a day chock full of MLB action with 14 games split right down the middle across the afternoon and evening. If anyone threw down in the early slate, I hope you’re well on your way to cashing nicely by the time you read this! The seven game main slate looks like it will be a tough nut to crack. Aside from Justin Verlander, every pitcher has some sort of question mark surrounding him -- whether it be a weather concern, difficult match-up, return from injury, or just a flat out lack of talent. I’ll go ahead and tell you, DO NOT make the mistake of paying for Rich Hill (DK: $10.7k, FD: $7.8k). Since Hill hasn’t pitched since June, he’d be a risk to roll out to begin with, but he’s essentially in an “opener” role today and is only expected to pitch a couple innings (~30 pitches).

On top of the Dodgers, we’re looking at the Red Sox and Mariners also deploying the “opener + long reliever” strategy. This essentially whittles our pitching options down to 11 teams. It’s a tricky one today for sure but offense should be easier to come by. Nine teams today currently have an implied total of 4.8 runs or higher. We’ll also have some areas where we need to watch out for potential weather delays (or perhaps even a postponement) so let’s get to it!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

LAD @ BAL, ATL @ PHI, and WAS @ MIN all have considerable delay risk with rain in the area. Philly and Minnesota seem like the most likely candidates to see a delay and I wouldn’t be surprised if both games start late. Baltimore is expecting more scattered storms so, under the right circumstances, they could end up playing completely dry. Barring an announced late start in any particular game location, I’ll be hesitant on rolling out starting pitchers in any of these games. I highly recommend running a final forecast check once these games get closer to first pitch!

Pitchers to Consider

Disclaimer: Justin Verlander (DK: $12.6, FD: $12k) is obviously the pitcher to roster today. Get him in where you can fit him in! If the game stays dry in Minnesota, despite the tough road match-up, Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.5k, FD: $10k) should also be firmly in play due to his excellent consistency as of late. On DK, I could see playing both of these guys as your SP1 & SP2 being a viable strategy. But, once again, DO NOT PLAY RICH HILL (due to pitch restrictions). That is all.

Brendan McKay | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.1k | LHP | @ TEX

Two concerning factors here for McKay -- the first factor being he’ll be playing at Globe Life Park, which is clearly not the best ballpark for pitchers. Secondly, we have to be concerned about a leash on his pitch count. He was straight dealing in his last start (vs. TOR) when he had seven strikeouts and allowed just one hit but got pulled after only 3.2 innings and 59 pitches. So, the obvious risks are… obvious. However, McKay’s 28.1% kRate provides plenty of upside if he is allowed to sling anywhere close to 90 pitches. The Rangers have posted a league-worst 62 wRC+ versus lefties over the last month while hitting just .221 and striking out 25.5% of the time. If you’re considering McKay, approach with caution and hope for the best (I think that sums up MLB DFS in general though, no?).

Kolby Allard | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | LHP | vs. TB

I know it’s a weird day when I can stomach highlighting both starting pitchers taking the mound at GLP. This game has a 10.5 run total so this definitely is not set up to be any sort of pitchers’ duel. However, we do still see those “3-2” or “4-1” type scores quite regularly in Texas even when ace pitching is not a factor. Allard has had productive outings in five of his six starts this season and pitch count restrictions do not seem to be as much of a concern for him as it is for his counterpart. He’s thrown anywhere between 89 and 103 pitches in each of his games. Allard doesn’t have elite strikeout stuff, with just a 20% kRate, but he has managed his way to a 4-0 record and a respectable 3.78 ERA (4.23 xFIP). It’s a pretty small sample size of 33.1 innings pitched this season but, in that time, Allard has given up just one home run, resulting in a 0.27 HR/9. He allows 34% Hard Contact and just 27.7% Fly Balls -- pretty decent numbers there all things considered. The fact that he can limit opposing home runs helps me feel better about him pitching in the hot and humid hitter-friendly Texas conditions. If Allard can just play his role as a ‘game manager’ and work his way through about six innings, he’ll likely end up being one of the better options outside the Verlander/Corbin duo.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Clay Buchholz (RHP), TOR

The Boston offense has been virtually non-existent after combining for just nine runs in their last five games (1.8 runs/game) which included being shutout twice. The season is a lost cause as they sit ten games back in the AL wild card race. Maybe it’s a lack of motivation affecting them lately but tonight is a chance to at least put up some respectable numbers. Buchholz is one of the most uninspiring pitchers on this slate. The Blue Jays also have a bullpen that is struggling mightily with a combined 5.25 xFIP over the last month -- the second worst mark in baseball. If Boston shines on the scoreboard tonight, it’s going to come from their studs: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers -- all three have at least a 150 wRC+ versus RHPs in the last month. If Brock Holt is in the lineup (144 wRC+), he also wouldn’t be the worst guy to punt.

Seattle Mariners (LHBs) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

I was pretty close to highlighting Mahle in the pitching section and he could for sure end up having a solid night against a Mariners team that is often just 'going through the motions' at this point. However, his poor splits versus lefties combined with some road struggles will have me taking some Seattle LHBs in what should be a lower-owned contrarian stack. Versus lefties on the road, Mahle allows a .338 AVG, .403 wOBA, 2.70 HR/9, and throws just 18% strikeouts. I’ll give guys like Kyle Seagar, Shed Long, and Daniel Vogelbach some looks tonight. Now that JP Crawford has been cleared to play, I’d throw him into the mix as well. This isn’t a safe stack by any means but it does feature some cheaper hitters that would help you pay up for a guy like Verlander or some big bats elsewhere.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

OF Bryce Harper (LHB) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), ATL

If you want some elite BvP history today, look no further than Harper versus Teheran. In Harper’s last 43 plate appearances against Teheran, he’s hitting .394 with a 1.170 wOBA, six home runs, and 16 RBI! Harper has been very solid over the last month while hitting .280 with a .786 wOBA+ISO, nine homers, 22 RBI, and six stolen bags. He’s also been a force in 15 games against the Braves this year in which he has six home runs, a .424 OBP, and a 162 wRC+ rating. The Phillies are in “win now” mode as they sit two games back in the NL wild card race and will need a huge game from their star outfielder if they hope to keep their postseason hopes chugging along.

2B/3B Nick Solak (RHB) | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brendan McKay (LHP), TB

We get to see a lot of young talent late in the season when teams start calling up their minor league stars to gauge how they can handle the big stage. Solak has been excellent over his first 21 MLB starts as he has amassed a .347 batting average with a .635 wOBA+ISO, 162 wRC+, and is getting on base 46% of the time. He has really been locked in after going 7-for-12 (.583) over his last three games with a homer and six RBI. I’ve mentioned McKay earlier and while he does have very solid strikeout ability, he does allow a stout .642 wOBA+ISO to RHBs. Solak likely bats fourth or fifth in what is statistically the best hitter’s environment of the night.

1B Rowdy Tellez (LHB) | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Boston Red Sox

This guy easily has one of my favorite names in baseball, so I’m glad Rowdy is heating up and I can feel more comfortable about giving him a mention as a ‘one off’ candidate. Tellez is hitting just .223 on the year and has profiled as a very boom/bust DFS option but lately he’s brought way more of that boom to the plate. In his last eight games, Rowdy is 7-for-24 (.292) with four dingers and a 198 wRC+. 66.7% of his fly balls have left the park in that stretch. Boston will open the game with Jhoulys Chacin pitching a couple innings as their opener. However, rookie pitcher Mike Shawaryn is being billed as the “long reliever.” If Rowdy can get one or two plate appearances against him, Shawaryn has given up a wild 84.6% Fly Ball Rate to LHBs -- though, this is just a 30 batter sample size and that number will absolutely regress. For the prices, Tellez is a great home run upside punt play and will very likely hit clean-up for the Blue Jays tonight.

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