Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Wednesday brings us our second consecutive 14 game monster slate to chop up and analyze. Just like yesterday, we have six games on the docket which currently possess double digit totals -- including match-ups at Coors Field and Globe Life Park. However, I am liking the overall pitching options a bit better today -- though, I still don’t love it. It seems as the season wears on we just get more and more of these “opener + long reliever” situations to deal with which can obviously be frustrating from a DFS standpoint. But we simply have to deal with it and look to make some coin regardless! Best of luck to everyone today. Let’s get down to business!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather

No major postponement risks jump off the page today but do keep an eye on the following games: LAD @ BAL, ATL @ PHI, ARI @ NYM, WAS @ MIN, and KC @ CWS. All of these games have some chance of a passing shower or pop up storm which always has the ability to deflate the upside from starting pitchers if a delay hits at the wrong time!

Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.2k | RHP | @ SEA

After pricing Zac Gallen above $11k yesterday, I’m kind of shocked DraftKings doesn’t have Gray at $13k+ today! Gray will most certainly be one of the most, if not THE most, popular plays of the evening. It’s fully warranted because he’s been one of the best and most consistent arms in all of baseball for months now. Dating back to June 28th (13 games, 81.1 IP), Gray has posted a 1.55 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 30.3% kRate, 0.93 WHIP, .167 opponent average, and a 92.5% LOB% (left on base percentage) while producing right around 50% ground balls. Against RHPs over the last month, the woeful Mariners have a .213 AVG (ranks 29th), .290 wOBA (25th), and an 82 wRC+ (23rd). They’re also striking out a lofty 26.2% of the time. There are no guarantees in baseball but you have to predict a floor of at least 20 DKFP/40 FDFP for the Reds’ certified ace tonight. He’s probably the go-to pitcher for anyone playing cash games and, despite the incoming chalk comments in chat, he should be fully in play for GPPs as well -- just look to differentiate elsewhere with your hitters or SP2s.

Pablo Lopez | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.1k | RHP | vs. MIL

This is an unfortunate circumstance but the Brewers lost back-to-back NL MVP candidate Christian Yelich for the season after a foul ball resulted in a fractured kneecap. This is obviously a major blow to a team that sits just one game back from the Cubs in the NL wild card race. As a result of the Yelich news, this has to put Pablo Lopez on the radar as one of the more intriguing pitchers to roll out today. Lopez pitches pretty lights out at home where he has a 2.68 ERA (3.67 xFIP), 24.6% kRate, 0.93 WHIP, and a .218 opponent average. In 53.2 home innings this year, he’s given up just two home runs (0.34 HR/9). Now, take away a team’s All-World superstar and you’ve got potential to see Pablo Lopez reel in another strong performance in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park.

Glenn Sparkman | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | RHP | @ CWS

In three starts against the White Sox this season, Sparkman has averaged 14.4 DKFP/25.3 FDFP. Fantasy totals which you’d probably take, given his salaries, particularly on DraftKings as an SP2 punt. The obvious catch here? The vast majority of Sparkman’s success versus the White Sox came on one magical mid-July night when he pitched nine shutout innings, racked up eight Ks, and accrued 42 DKFP/61 FDFP. The odds he can come anywhere close to that sort of performance tonight is virtually nil. The White Sox are also playing decent ball lately after stringing together at least six runs in five of their last seven games. Their lineup does still provide a decent amount of strikeouts to RHPs (24.8% kRate over the last month). Sparkman and his low 13% kRate could use whatever help possible. If he can stick it out for five innings of work without getting dismantled, you’ll have a decent value option here -- especially on DK where literally dozens of hitters are more expensive than his $4,400 price tag tonight.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Disclaimer: As usual, no teams playing in these very hitter friendly environments will be mentioned in this section. All four teams are ‘stackable’ by default.

Houston Astros vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), OAK

Do you think Houston wants to exact a little revenge against Oakland who just hung 21 runs on them at home last night? I’m leaning towards “yes… yes they do.” The first two games of this series has seen 43 runs scored and both bullpens have received some additional run over the last couple days as a result, so this likely isn’t the worst spot to get a complete game stack going. Across his last four starts (22 IP), Anderson has recorded a 4.91 ERA (5.07 xFIP), 1.64 WHIP, .300 opponent average, and is throwing just 10% strikeouts against 9% walks. As a team, Houston has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball versus LHPs in the last month (16.9% kRate in 354 plate appearances). This doesn’t bode well for a low strikeout pitcher who seems to be wearing down towards the end of the season. Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez are my favorite targets but, for a cheaper option, I’d also consider whoever starts at catcher, whether it be Robinson Chirinos or Martin Maldonado.

San Francisco Giants vs. Dario Agrazal (RHP), PIT

Agrazal’s 6.38 xFIP on the season is about as bad as it gets on this slate. He’s throwing just 10.8% strikeouts and allows 1.85 HR/9. He’s shown really poor reverse splits this season (.345 AVG, .414 wOBA, .237 ISO vs. RHBs) so if you want to lean towards targeting the righties in a Giants stack, I wouldn’t fault you there. The Giants won’t typically eclipse five runs but they’re perpetually cheap and low-owned. So if you nail the right two or three guys, you’ll be in great position in GPPs. Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, and Kevin Pillar are a few guys I would keep an eye on.

San Diego Padres vs. Cole Hamels (LHP), CHC

Throwing out another contrarian stack here with the Padres facing a struggling lefty. Over the last month (22.1 IP), Hamels has an 8.08 ERA (5.80 xFIP), 2.01 WHIP, .350 opponent average, and is allowing 2.40 HR/9 while throwing just 17.7% strikeouts. Hamels has struggled more on the road this season and the Cubs also had to go pretty deep into their bullpen in last night’s 10th inning loss to San Diego. Like the Giants, you’ll get most of these Padres bats at affordable prices and low ownership as people look to stack Coors Field and other more obvious offenses. Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Manuel Margot are my favorite targets here. Luis Urias also stands out as a viable value option.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

3B Yoan Moncada (S) | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Glenn Sparkman (RHP), KC

If you’re not punting Sparky at pitcher, then you might have some interest in the opposite end of things. Moncada is batting .483 in his last eight games with a .762 wOBA+ISO and 1.280 OPS. He excels more when stepping up to the plate at home this year where, against righties, he is hitting .326 with a .723 wOBA+ISO and 162 wRC+. Sparkman has an awful, terrible, no good 7.34 xFIP versus lefties on the road this year (123 total batters faced) while allowing 3.28 HR/9 on 48% Hard Contact and 51% Fly Balls. Great spot for the White Sox’s young stud third baseman to have a huge night here and he’s already launched a homer off of Sparkman earlier this season. I’ll say he gets another one tonight. 💣

2B Wilmer Flores (RHB) | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), NYM

Matz has very strong splits at home (2.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .228 BAA) so I don’t normally look to target him when he takes the mound at Citi Field. However, Wilmer Flores is tops in all of baseball with a 214 wRC+ over the last month (min. 50 plate appearances) and in that time he is hitting .410 with an .891 wOBA+ISO, six home runs, and 14 RBI. In his last 26 plate appearances versus lefties, he’s racked up five homers and a 1.263 wOBA+ISO. He’s not always a guarantee to make the lineup but with major playoff implications riding on this game, I would expect he makes it into the order tonight.

2B Jurickson Profar (SH) | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

Profar is another guy who has been very productive but has flown under the radar lately. His 197 wRC+ over the last month ranks fifth in baseball (min. 50 PA) and he’s boasting an .818 wOBA+ISO in that stretch with five homers and 15 RBI. Urquidy is forced to make a spot start for the Astros today which will be his first MLB start since July 31st. He certainly has some solid strikeout potential but he’s anything but consistent. Considering how well he’s been playing, Profar is a strong upside option who rarely catches much ownership due to being stuffed in the back half of the A’s order.

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