Top MLB DFS Plays 9/11 | Keeping Our Eyes on the Skies in Minnesota

September 11, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Let’s leave that ugly Thursday main slate in the rear view and chase a takedown on this fine Friday. We’ll have numerous avenues we can take to attack this one considering the strong pitching options on top of some favorable match-ups for offenses. Coors Field is also in play for the first time in about a week and a half and carries what is easily the highest implied total on the slate (12 O/U). Figuring out what sort of exposure you’ll end up having to the Coors match-up is always an important box you’ll have to check off in the lineup building process. I could see Angels/Rockies players going a tad under-owned (by Coors standards) as people look to pay up for one of these elite pitchers. But there’s plenty to get to and fortunately we’ll have some extra time to mull everything over today, as this main slate won’t start up until 8:05 ET.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

SEA @ ARI: Roof will be open again at Chase Field. Temps in Phoenix around 90 degrees by first pitch.

PIT @ KC: Rain all day in Kansas City but clearing around first pitch (8:05 ET). Possible late start but as long as field conditions are fine this one should play. Definitely worth monitoring.

🚨CLE @ MIN:🚨 This game is our primary weather concern and I’m sure a lot of people are going to want to play the pitchers in this one, so there are significant DFS implications here. This one will almost certainly see significant rain coverage throughout the game. However, the actual rain itself may be light enough to where they simply play through it. But a postponement is well within the realm of possibilities right now. If you have CLE/MIN players rostered in your lineups, make sure you have a quick plan in place to swap guys out just in case a PPD announcement comes in at the last minute. Players in this game will lock at 8:10 ET.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. DET

With those weather concerns in the CLE/MIN game, G-elite-o may be the safest ace to spend up on today. We’ll see if he can come close to replicating his August 20th box score against Detroit when he mowed the Tigers down across 7 innings and 110 pitches while racking up 13 Ks and allowed just three hits and no runs en route to scoring 43.4 DKFP/70 FDFP. Detroit’s 28.3% kRate versus RHPs is the highest mark in the league and within the last week they’ve bumped that figure up to a 29.9% overall kRate. Gio’s 34.9% kRate trails only Shane Bieber (42.9% kRate) on this slate and his 17.9% Swinging Strike Rate tops the field. Detroit isn’t an absolutely terrible offense and they could certainly do some damage if Giolito isn’t on his A-game, but it’s not the likeliest of scenarios. The White Sox are the heaviest favorites today with -275 odds and Detroit holds just a 3.3 implied run total.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ ARI

Kikuchi has a chance to be one of the better FPT/$ pitchers today. Arizona has been miserable against lefties this season, hitting just .214 alongside a .265 wOBA (ranks last in MLB), .105 ISO (ranks last), and a 60 wRC+ (also… ranks last). Kikuchi’s 5.23 ERA looks a little rough but his 3.09 xFIP is over two runs better and is a very solid figure which ranks only behind Bieber, Maeda, Castillo, and Giolito on this slate. Kikuchi is also racking up a solid 27.4% kRate while allowing a slate-best 22.5% Fly Ball Rate. There’s a really strong possibility he pays off these salaries today and Kikuchi should particularly fall into SP2 consideration on DraftKings, especially if you’re trying to fit in Coors bats.

Also consider: Shane Bieber (DK: $11k, FD: $11.6k) and Kenta Maeda ($10.2k, FD: $9.5k) should probably both be given a long look if the weather ends up working out in that game. That game carries just a seven run total. Luis Castillo (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.1k) is another strong option who offers some legitimate strikeout upside.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Rockies and Angels should obviously be the two highest owned team stacks today. I could see some White Sox bats land on some high ownership as well. All of these teams are worth stack consideration, just look to differentiate elsewhere in GPPs.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

The Brewers are a very good offense when facing lefties, as their .358 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 121 wRC+ versus LHPs are all top six figures in the league. They’ve also been an offense that has been heating up in general. Over the last week, they have a 152 wRC+ (ranks 3rd) and 133 wRC+ over the last two weeks (also ranks 3rd). That 19 run performance from a couple days ago certainly skews things a bit, but they have strung together several other solid offensive games recently where they’ve scored 7+ runs. Lester has struggled mightily in four of his last five starts and he’s currently holding a very poor 5.48 xFIP while striking out just 15.9% of batters and allowing 2.01 HR/9. Looking at some statcast figures, Lester has allowed 17 barreled balls this season which results in a 12.1% Barrel% (second highest among today’s starters). This could be another good outing for the Brew crew.

Oakland Athletics vs. Luis Garcia (RHP, Opener) & Jordan Lyles (RHP, Long Reliever), TEX

No doubt, the A’s have been a frustrating offense to stack up, but perhaps they can find some success today. They should see the majority of innings against Jordan Lyles who should pitch several innings after Luis Garcia takes the mound for likely just the opening frame. Lyles has a slate-worst 8.07 ERA and 6.29 xFIP and has struck out just 13.3% of hitters. I’m not sure if I’d roll out a full five man A’s stack here but I do think 2-4 guys in this lineup will have a very productive day.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Yeah, a Pirates stack is rarely appealing but they’re actually not horrible against lefties and Bubic is still a pretty unproven rookie. I could see a two or three man Pirates stack coming through tonight and their ownership would likely be very low. If you want to look at some specific Pittsburgh bats, Erik Gonzalez, Jacob Stallings, and Bryan Reynolds have been their best routine starters versus LHPs.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6k, FD: $5k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), LAA

So… what’s the ownership going to look like on Mike Trout in Coors? It’ll be difficult not to bite on the chalk in this scenario. In seven career games at Coors Field (29 at-bats), Mike Trout is batting .483 with a .582 wOBA, .345 ISO, 282 wRC+, and three home runs. Marquez is a good pitcher but unfortunately that often doesn’t really mean much when you’ve got to take the mound in Colorado. You can, of course, be much more flexible in GPPs when it comes to playing/avoiding chalky Coors hitters, but in cash games I’d probably try to find a way to get Trout in.

1B/3B Jedd Gyorko | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Gyorko is coming off of his second multi-home run game of the season and has a solid shot at hitting another one over the fence tonight. In his last 20 games versus LHPs (35 PA), Gyorko has a .996 wOBA+ISO and five homers. In 33 PA against Jon Lester, he has an .817 wOBA+ISO and three homers. I’m on board with him at these mid-range salaries, especially if he’s batting clean-up once again.

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), LAA

I don’t usually look to highlight multiple guys on the same team in this section, and Walsh is likely another very chalky option, but I wanted to mention him just in case someone reading this happens to overlook him. Given his recent production, Walsh is far too cheap of a Coors Field bat. In his last seven games (22 at-bats), Walsh is hitting .364 with a .496 wOBA, .591 ISO, three home runs, two doubles, and a triple. The Angels don’t have an abundance of lefties to deploy against Marquez so I would assume Walsh makes the lineup once again.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/3B Jedd Gyorko | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

I’m really tempted to bite on the Trout bait but I’m going to say Gyorko slugs another one out tonight due to all the positives I mentioned about him in the one-off section. It never hurts to be taking your at-bats in the hitter-friendly Miller Park either.

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