Top MLB DFS Plays 9/10 | Thursday's Short Slate Rundown

September 10, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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So… what are all you guys who backed the Braves last night doing with your BILLIONS of dollars? Maybe invite me to your yacht party once this coronavirus mess blows over. As Thursday main slates often go, this is another off-kilter set of games. The slate starts up at 6:40 ET, so keep the earlier start time in mind as lineup lock approaches. There are only six games on the docket and bad weather in New York could quickly reduce that down to five games (more on that below). I won’t tell anyone what to do with their hard-earned money, but I’ll personally be playing this one a little light tonight and perhaps sticking to GPP entries only. There are just a number of potential theoretical landmines on this one. The newsletter will be on the shorter side today due to the nature of the slate, but we have a go at it anyway!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

LAD @ ARI: Once again, the roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be open. Temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-to-high 80s. There have been 29 combined runs scored in the last two games of this series under similar circumstances (though both games did go to extra innings).

CIN @ CHC: Another solid pitching environment, as winds will be blowing IN at 15 mph and temps will be in the 60s. Only six runs have been scored under near-identical conditions the last two games of the series.

🚨BAL @ NYY:🚨 They’ll be very fortunate to dodge significant rain storms in this game. Rostering any players from this one will carry significant risk. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning any Orioles or Yankees because I just don’t really see this one playing as of now. But, if they don’t announce a PPD early, check on the forecast closer to first pitch (7:05 ET) to see if there’s a chance they play.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.1k | @ CHC

Gray is coming off of, by far, his worst outing of the season where he didn’t even make it out of the first inning (0.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 ER, 1 K, 38 pitches). That was back on September 1st against the Cardinals. The Reds elected to give Gray a day off for his next scheduled start to allow him to get back “in sync.” I do have slight pitch count concerns but it also isn’t like he had to take time off due to injury (reportedly). The Cubs aren’t the safest match-up but they do offer up plenty of strikeouts (26.3% kRate vs. RHP). Gray has a strong 31.6% kRate along with a slate-best 3.12 xFIP and those 15 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley should certainly assist in knocking some fly balls down. With the postponement risk in New York where Gerrit Cole is scheduled to pitch, Gray likely comes in as the most appealing pitcher to spend up on across this short slate.

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. SF

Paddack has been a bit of a letdown this season after not really building upon a strong rookie campaign in 2019. But the kid has plenty of talent and flashed a solid ceiling when he posted 29.9 DKFP/52 FDFP a couple starts back against Colorado (in Coors Field). His 4.75 ERA looks a little sketchy on paper but his 3.68 xFIP is over a run better, so the underlying stats are telling us he’s been getting a bit unlucky. His strikeouts are down a touch from last year but Paddack still has an above average 24.2% kRate and has shown good plate control with a low 4.6% Walk Rate. The Giants offense has been picking up steam lately and isn’t the safest match-up but you can repeat that for basically every pitcher today. With an elite offense backing him, Paddack and the Padres (good band name?) are heavy -200 favorites.

Josh Fleming (LHP) | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. BOS

Another risky option, but Fleming is affordable and may be able to return value across five innings or so. He’s not a major strikeout guy, as his 18.3% kRate is pretty in line with his minor league numbers. But he is fairly capable of forcing a ground ball rate above 50%. The Boston bats have awoken from their early season slumber but if they play more toward their baseline, they’ve been just a slightly above average team versus LHPs (110 wRC+). Tampa Bay is also a heavy -200 favorite so perhaps Fleming can position himself for a win bonus.

Also consider: Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. PHI -- A DraftKings preferred play. Alcantara scored 28 DKFP is 2-of-3 starts and one of those came against this same Philly team. The Phillies have plenty of dangerous hitters and may get to him the second time around but he should probably be priced up more than $6,600 on DK.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s a six (possibly five) game slate so stack ownership will be elevated on all the offenses in good spots. I’m not going to be too concerned about ownership in general today but if you are, as always, just try to differentiate elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mike Kickham (LHP), BOS

Kickham maybe only pitches two or three innings but the Rays are a top 10 offense against lefties this season. Tampa Bay bats have cooled off a bit lately (.314 wOBA, .180 ISO, 100 wRC+) and they’ve been fairly average but I could see a pathway for them to score 6+ runs today. Once Kickham is retired, the Rays will see a fairly average Red Sox bullpen whose 1.66 WHIP ranks as the second-highest in the league.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

MadBum has an atrocious 8.44 ERA, 7.18 xFIP, 6.02 SIERA, and allows 3.80 HR/9 -- all figures which rank as the worst on the slate. The Dodgers are more built to dominate righties, and you can see on the daily match-up chart below how many LAD hitters have struggled against LHPs this season. But I’m not shying away from them in this spot, especially with the positive scoring environment that an open-roofed Chase Field provides.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Not really a ‘crazy’ stack, because Philadelphia has a strong offense, but if Alcantara is going to be popular today (particularly on DraftKings) then I don’t mind throwing a stack against him. If the Phillies manage to knock Alcantara off the mound early, the Miami bullpen could be running a bit thin after coming off of that heavily deflating 29-9 loss to the Braves last night where they were forced to throw 185 pitches behind starter Pablo Lopez (55 pitches).

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP), SF

OF AJ Pollock | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), PHI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs.Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

Belt is hitting .500 with a 1.063 wOBA+ISO against RHPs in his last 20 games (62 PA) and has five homers in that span. Paddack struggles quite a bit more against lefty bats, like Belt, to which he has allowed a .364 wOBA and .245 ISO this season alongside a 2.05 HR/9 Rate. While I do like Paddack to have a solid game tonight, I do think at least one of the Giants lefties will go yard off of him. I’ll place my bets on Belt being the guy who gets one out the park.

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