Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Friday, my friends! We will get the weekend underway with a 13-game MLB slate waiting in the wings for us this evening. There is some quality balance between pitching and hitting tonight so this should be a fun slate to build for. Another great aspect about this slate is the fact that we’ll have zero weather issues to keep track of! Ya gotta love that, especially when there are so many games in play. Let’s get it rolling! Best of luck tonight!

Also, we have released quite a bit of LineStar NFL content over the last couple of days! Be sure to check out the podcasts with KC Bubba and Scott Bogman along with newsletters covering this week’s NFL main slate and primetime games. And our college football newsletter aimed at the DraftKings Saturday main slate will be out later today as well!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As mentioned in the intro, there are really no weather concerns to worry about on this 13-game slate. And with fall creeping in, most game-time temperatures will rest in the 70s ad there really won’t even be any notable wind factors to mention either. EZPZ!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.2k | @ BAL

The only thing to not like about Ray today is the fact that he’s stepping on the bump at the very hitter-friendly Camden Yards. I suppose you could add in his slate-high salaries as being a negative as well, but Ray has 100% deserved to get pinned with these five-figure price points. I mean, would ya just look at what he has done over his last five starts? In 35.2 IP, he has earned a 1.51 ERA, 2.32 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, 40.5% kRate (!!!), and he's holding opponents to a .163 AVG/.196 wOBA. In that stretch, he’s averaging 33.2 DKFP/56 FDFP per game and he’s racked up double-digit strikeouts in four straight starts. Baltimore has been decent against southpaws (108 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 12th) but Ray has just been too locked in recently, so we should expect him to keep rolling along.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k | vs. LAA

Valdez had a poor outing in his previous start at San Diego, but I’m feeling a nice bounce-back opportunity coming today. I can nearly guarantee that no other starting pitcher in baseball is putting up the sort of Statcast numbers Valdez has been posting. In the last month, he is forcing a ridiculous 70.1% Ground Ball Rate, 17.2% Fly Ball Rate, 12.6% Line Drive%, 20.7% HardContact%, and batted balls are going an average distance of 92.6 feet! Hitters have bee lucky to even get anything past the infield against Valdez! The Angels have been a bottom 10 offense against LHPs lately and, while Valdez is not the most prolific strikeout guy, I could see him racking up around a K per inning tonight.

Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. MIA

Anderson’s recent game log doesn’t look all that attractive but it’s important to remember that he was dealing with some shoulder inflammation in early July which landed him on the IL for several weeks. He had four minor-league rehab appearances since then and this will be his third MLB start since returning from the IL. His pitch count may be limited to 80-90 throws in this game but that should be enough to pay off these salaries, particularly at $6,600 on DK. The Marlins bats come into tonight ice cold and over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they’re hitting only .221 with a .271 wOBA, .111 ISO, and 71 wRC+. They’re well inside the bottom 10 offenses in the MLB and they’re also striking out quite a bit as well (25.2% kRate L2Wks). If you need a cheap pitcher, Anderson should be able to push for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP, especially if he receives some run support and positions himself for the win. The Braves are pretty hefty -190 favorites this evening, after all.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

• Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

• Milwaukee Brewers vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Secondary Stacks

Kansas City Royals vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

Griffin Jax has struggled mightily over his last three starts, having allowed 19 earned runs (11.93 ERA) including six homers (3.8 HR/9) while posting a 1.88 WHIP and allowing a .306 AVG/.455 wOBA. Despite his struggles, Minnesota is still keeping him out there for four or five innings and he’ll be supported by a fairly mediocre Twins bullpen. A few of these Royals bats will be very appealing options today.

Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

Rogers has posted some solid numbers on the year, particularly when it comes to his low 2.52 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, and 1.15 WHIP. But he is a pitcher that Atlanta has seen very well previously. In 47 plate appearances vs. Rogers, the current Braves roster is batting a lofty .390 against him with a .428 wOBA. The Braves are always a good bet to play better at home (5.12 runs/gm at home this season, 4.65 runs/gm on the road) and they are trying to extend their 3.5 game lead over the Phillies in the NL East standings. With 26 teams in play today, Rogers being the quality pitcher that he is, and the Marlins possessing a respectable bullpen, I don’t believe many people will be on these Braves bats aside from maybe a red hot Adam Duvall and an affordable Jorge Soler, who has all of a sudden become a .300+ hitter over his last 20 games.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

The Chicago White Sox have landed at a 122 wRC+ over the last two weeks, which is third in the MLB behind only the Toronto Blue Jays (136 wRC+) and Tampa Bay Rays (127 wRC+). They’re also leading the MLB in that two week stretch with a .277 team batting average and a league-low 16.7% kRate. They’ll be facing a talented young pitcher in Tanner Houck (3.26 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 30.1% kRate), but he has pitched beyond five innings just once in his 10 starts this season. The Red Sox bullpen has been a little erratic and has blown some games lately and any Boston pitcher stepping foot on the mound will have their work cut out for them against a dangerous White Sox lineup that is getting a ton of hits and proving to be extremely difficult to strikeout.

One-Off Bats ☝️

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

1B/2B/3B Eduardo Escobar | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs.Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

3B Eugenio Suarez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), STL

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

OF DJ Peters | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

1B Dan Vogelbach | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Leody Taveras | DK; $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

I’m kinda going ‘easy mode’ with this call today. Perez has homered 10 times versus RHPs in his last 20 games and he should get at least a couple cracks at Griffin Jax, who has a 2.86 HR/9 Rate against RHBs and has been taken yard six times over his previous three starts. The Twins bullpen is also surrendering 1.61 HR/9 over the last month, which is the fifth-highest HR rate of any MLB bullpen in that span. Sal Perez is on the verge of history as he’s chasing the all-time single season home run record for a catcher. His 2021 home run total currently sits at 42. He’s three dingers away from the record with 19 games left to play. My money is on him having 43 (… maybe 44?) by the end of the night!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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