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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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With a couple of postponements already in the books (PHI @ WAS, MIA @ NYM), we’ll be left with a nine game main slate this evening. Once you get past the top handful of pitchers on this slate, things start to get really dicey with many of the remaining guys either set to face difficult match-ups or pitch with a limited workload (<80 pitches). So, while finding some good fortune with pitchers (outside of the top tier) will be tricky, it also means that there should be a high amount of viable offenses to load up on. Good luck today! New month, new money... let’s get after it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Aside from the games that have already been postponed, no other match-ups left on the slate should meet the same fate. A few games will provide hitters with some notably helpful winds blowing towards the outfield.

Best hitting environments: NYY @ LAA, OAK @ DET, PIT @ CWS

Best pitching environments: BOS @ TB, MIL @ SF

NYY @ LAA (7:07 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing out to left at 10 mph.

OAK @ DET (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Winds blowing out to center at 10-15 mph.

PIT @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing out to right at 10-15 mph. Possibly 15+ mph at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.2k | @ LAA

There are some certified aces up top today but Cole will likely be the guy I entrust the most when spending up. Max Scherzer draws a tough Braves match-up (though Atlanta will likely be without Ozzie Albies, which helps Max out), Carlos Rodon draws a nice match-up but may be given a limited workload after throwing only 67 pitches in his last start following a 19-day stint on the IL with a shoulder injury, and finally Chris Sale also gets a tough Rays match-up and has been limited to 71 and 80 pitches in his previous two starts.

So, we land at Cole. He’s a near lock for around 100 pitches and has been striking out an impressive 35.3% of hitters in his last five games. His 3.49 ERA in that span may not be spectacular, but he’s been getting a bit unlucky considering he has had an unusually high .333 BABIP against him. Cole’s 2.85 xFIP in those last five games is closer to where his ERA should actually be. The Angels have been a middle-of-the-pack offense versus RHPs lately and they were only able to muster one run on two hits and a walk against Cole a couple weeks ago (8/16) while striking out nine times. Cole walked away from that game with 31 DKFP and 47 FDFP. I believe we can look to get a similar performance out of him today so long as those 10 mph winds blowing out to left field don’t result in some unexpected Angels home runs.

Steven Matz (LHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8k | vs. BAL

I’m not crazy about this Matz play but I do believe there is a decent enough chance he works out and could push for a 25 DKFP/40 FDFP kinda day. It’s not overly likely, but possible. Matz has acquired an impressive 1.30 ERA across his last five starts while averaging 92 pitches/gm. The strikeouts have not exactly been there (17.5% kRate) but I could envision him receiving about six innings of work today while recording a strikeout per inning. In the last two weeks vs. LHPs (223 plate appearances), Baltimore has struck out 26% of the time while hitting only .220 with a 78 wRC+, which puts them among the bottom 10 offenses in the league versus southpaws during that time frame. Toronto will be heavy -250 favorites and the O’s have a fairly low 4.1 implied run total. On a day where mid-range and value pitchers just aren’t readily available, Matz will be a worthy target in GPPs.

DK Only: Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | $5,000 | vs. CHC

Unfortunately, Joe Ryan is not available in the FanDuel player pool. But on DraftKings, he is going to check in as a highly viable SP2 punt with this low $5,000 price tag. Ryan will be making his big league debut and is listed as the Twins #6 overall prospect per MLB.com. He has shown exceptional strikeout potential at every level of the minor leagues he has pitched in. Most recently, in 12 appearances (11 starts) and 57.0 IP in Triple-A, he has amassed a healthy 34.9% kRate with a 0.79 WHIP, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, while holding opponents to a .173 AVG. The Cubs are hitting the ball better lately and obviously represent a tougher challenge than any Triple-A roster, but they’re still striking out a ton with a 28.9% kRate vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (highest in the Majors). If he impresses tonight, Ryan could stick around for the final month of the season and be given an extended audition for a spot in the 2022 Twins rotation. Even if he isn’t given a massive workload today, there is a great deal of upside at this price point.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

• Chicago White Sox vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

• New York Yankees vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

Secondary Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

The A’s plated nine runs on 12 hits yesterday in Detroit and have some potential to have another strong day at the plate today. In Peralta’s previous five starts, he has landed at a 5.40 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate while opponents are hitting .306 against him with a .381 wOBA. He’ll be supported by a bottom 10 ranked Tigers bullpen. Oakland hasn’t been crushing on offense lately, but they haven’t been bad by any means. Their offensive numbers go up considerably when they travel away from their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. The A’s have averaged 4.10 runs/gm at home this year, which ranks 23rd. However, on the road, they’ve averaged 4.83 runs/gm, which ranks 7th in the MLB. The 10-15 mph winds blowing out at Comerica Park shouldn’t hurt their offensive chances either.

Cleveland Indians vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

Cleveland has seemingly flown under the radar with their offense as of late but they actually lead the MLB, by a decent margin, with a 137 wRC+ over the last 14 days (HOU is 2nd with a 119 wRC+). They’ve scored at least seven runs in four of their last six and will look to keep that momentum rolling against an inexperienced Royals pitcher tonight. Jackson Kowar is a rookie who has just five innings pitched in the MLB, all of which came back in June. Since being sent back down to the minor leagues, he hasn’t done much to inspire any real confidence moving forward at the MLB level. There’s a decent chance that Kowar only pitches a few innings, that is if he doesn’t get blown up super early. So, expect a higher-than-usual amount of relief innings from a not bad, but fairly mediocre Royals bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), CWS

So, this is definitely not for the faint of heart and does have only a slim chance of working out but you might be able to hit on two or three Pirate bats that end up doing well today. Rodon could still be handling a limited workload after throwing just 67 pitches in his last start following his return from a shoulder injury. He also wasn’t looking exceptionally sharp immediately prior to the injury. The Pirates haven’t been terrible against lefties, posting a 104 wRC+ against LHPs in their last 159 plate appearances while striking out only 20.1% of the time. The White Sox do have an elite bullpen to bring in behind Rodon if he struggles or only pitches four or five frames. But with some strong winds blowing out in Chicago today, perhaps you can get lucky and hit it big with a couple of these dirt cheap Pittsburgh bats.

One-Off Bats ☝️

C Sal Perez | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

2B/3B/SS Josh Harrison | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

OF Michael A. Taylor | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

OF Bradley Zimmer | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jackson Profar (RHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

The former 2020 MVP is coming off of an exceptional month of August where he racked up a .330 AVG, .435 wOBA, .330 ISO, 182 wRC+, and ten home runs. Across 20 big league innings, Max Kranick has amassed a 7.20 ERA, 5.52 xFIP, and 38.8% HardHit%. He’s only given up two home runs in that stretch but they’ve both come from the right side of the plate. But, really, it doesn’t matter who is on the mound versus Abreu given the way he has been swinging the bat. And the fact that Abreu will have strong 10-15 mph winds at his back, which could be 15+ mph at times, only increases his odds of homering tonight. Get one out tonight, Jose!

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