Top MLB DFS Plays 9/1 | Slugging Away Into September

September 01, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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A hefty 11-game main slate makes its way around to us on this Tuesday evening. Pitching is not nearly as top-heavy as yesterday and, overall, I believe we’ll see several games which go on to be high-scoring affairs. With 22 teams to look into, I won’t waste much time on this intro. Let’s kick September off right… new month, new money!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Miraculously, there really isn’t much to be overly concerned with today, weather-wise. But I’ll still hit on a couple games that could see some weather impacts. Also, things can always change over the next few hours, so always double check on weather closer to lock.

TB @ NYY: Winds blowing in around 10 mph. Slight bump to starting pitchers.

CHC @ PIT: This is the only match-up that currently holds any threat of a weather-related delay, and it’s very slight. The most likely scenario is that this one plays dry but see what things are looking like closer to first pitch as a passing shower could make its way over the ballpark. Fortunately this is one of the games that leads off the slate at 7:05 ET.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

I’ll preface this section by mentioning that pitching pricing varies quite a bit between DraftKings and FanDuel today -- far more than usual. I always try to be considerate of DFS players on both sites but I do tend to focus slightly more on DK pricing, as that seems to be where the majority of folks play at. Normally both sites are generally on par with each other when it comes to pricing pitchers, but today it just seems like they’re on opposite ends of the spectrum with several guys.

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TEX

Valdez is one of the guys who is priced much differently between DK and FD. On DK, he is the eighth most expensive option and the second most expensive on FD. I still think he’s in play on both sites as he could easily end up outscoring all pitchers on this slate. Aside from his uninspiring season debut against the Dodgers, he has been excellent in all five of his starts since. In his last five starts (34.0 IP), Valdez boasts a 1.85 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and a 27.9% kRate. In that span, he is also allowing just a 17.2% Fly Ball Rate, which is incredibly low for even the best groundball pitchers. Against LHPs this season, the Rangers have just a .290 wOBA (ranks 23rd) alongside a 72 wRC+ (26th) and they’re striking out a fairly lofty 24.6% of the time. Their 31.3% Fly Ball Rate against lefties is also the sixth lowest FB% in the league and plays right into Valdez’s pitching profile. All this ultimately helps lead to Valdez and the Astros being massive -280 favorites tonight. That’s a sort of moneyline you usually only see when a top level ace is on the mound against a weak opponent. Valdez may be chalk tonight, but it’s some chalk I’ll bite on and he makes for a great cash game option.

Josh Lindblom (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET

Lindblom is actually priced pretty similarly between DK and FD and is a cheap pitcher I’m interested in for GPPs tonight. If the Brewers actually let Lindblom get to around a 90 pitch count (84+ pitches in 3-of-6 starts this season), then he could actually rack up quite a few strikeouts. The Tigers strikeout more than anyone else in the league against righties with a 28.6% kRate. Lindblom has a strong 31.6% kRate this season alongside a slate best 15.1% Swinging Strike Rate. He is a pitcher who has not had the best luck when it comes to things like BABIP and defensive help. He carries an ugly 6.31 ERA and .343 wOBA this season but his 3.88 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA, and .307 xwOBA are all above average figures and more indicative of Lindblom’s actual skill level. The Brewers are strong -190 favorites and there is some sneak upside for Lindblom tonight.

Others to Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.2k | vs. WAS

Nola is clearly the top arm on the slate but people are going to shy away from him due to the match-up with a dangerous Nationals team. Nola pitched well against Washington in his last start (5 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 8 K, 7.0 IP, 113 pitches, 27.6 DKFP/49 FDFP) and earned the win. But I do always try to warn people about a pitcher playing the same team in back-to-back starts, as things can get ugly the second time around. Nola could still outscore all other pitchers on this slate but should probably be reserved for GPPs.

Zach Plesac (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | @ KC

Plesac is another guy who is priced soft of DK, more appropriately on FD. Plesac has only started three games this season (21.0 IP) but has had strong outings in each one. Through those three games, he has a 31.2% kRate, 13.5% SwStr%, 1.29 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, and a .190 wOBA. The Royals are a not terrible but overall below average offense against RHPs, so Plesac is firmly on today’s radar as Cleveland checks in as -190 favorites. I expect Valdez and Plesac to be the chalky SP1/SP2 combo on DK today but it’s still probably where I’d go for cash game builds.

Ian Anderson (RHP) | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k | @ BOS

Again, this is another pitcher with wildly varying prices but he could still be worth a look on FanDuel as a contrarian option. Anderson posted strong numbers in most of his stay in the minor leagues and the Braves let him go for 90 pitches against the Yankees in his MLB debut. Since they didn’t make any moves for a starting pitcher prior to yesterday’s trade deadline, it would seem Atlanta is banking on him being a stable part of their starting rotation. He obviously didn’t disappoint in his debut (6 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 6 K) where he also earned the win. I still wouldn’t put a ton of faith in a rookie making his second ever MLB start (and first road start, but not sure how much that matters this season without fans) but there is some real upside with this kid.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Without several high-priced elite pitchers in solid match-ups on this slate, we’ll probably see a decent amount of ownership head back to Coors Field with the Rockies hosting the Giants. Aside from them, I could see the Braves bringing in some chalky ownership as well. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking/playing guys on these teams, just be aware of the increased ownership.

Houston Astros vs. Luis Garcia (RHP) & Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

The Astros aren’t as dominate of an offense as they have been in recent years (…no comment on why that may be) but, overall, they’re producing a .327 wOBA and 109 wRC+ as a team which still ranks them inside the top ten among MLB offenses in both categories. They’re also scoring 5.33 runs/game, which ranks 4th in the majors. Luis Garcia will serve as the opener for the Rangers and pitch one or two innings. The Astros will get the more extended at-bats against Jordan Lyles who is designated as the “long reliever” today. Through 24.1 IP this season, Lyles has amassed a 9.25 ERA, 6.53 xFIP, .401 wOBA, and he is striking out just 13.6% of hitters and has a miserable 5.8% SwStr%. He also has posted a very poor 1.89 WHIP and and 1.85 HR/9. There’s no reason to believe he will fare all too well against Houston today.

Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), KC

The Indians are typically carried by their overall elite pitching but maybe the offense can actually come through today as they face off with a steeply declining Matt Harvey. He has only been able to last 5.2 innings through his first two starts with the Royals while allowing nine hits, four walks, and seven runs (11.12 ERA, 2.29 WHIP). Despite the small sample size, it isn’t like Harvey showed many signs of his old self across twelve starts and 59.2 IP last season when he posted a 7.09 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP and had a miserable 14.7% kRate while surrendering 1.96 HR/9. The Indians have a chance to tag up Harvey early and see plenty of at-bats against a Royals bullpen that does have a strong 3.70 ERA (6th best) but a poor 4.74 xFIP (10th worst) and 1.46 WHIP (10th worst).

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Boston Red Sox vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

This is more contrarian than it is ‘crazy’ but I really doubt much ownership goes toward these Boston bats today. Despite Ian Anderson’s strong MLB debut against the Yankees, he is still a 22-year-old rookie making his second ever start. Overall, Boston has disappointed pretty drastically this season but they still have talented hitters scattered throughout this order -- guys who are clearly capable of shelling an inexperienced pitcher.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

Abreu may have cooled off a bit but it is still hard to ignore the massive offense output he has strung together recently. Since August 16th (14 games, 58 at-bats), Abreu is hitting .414 with a .574 wOBA, .552 ISO, and 68.8% Hard Contact Rate. In that stretch, he has belted an insane nine home runs and has also added five doubles and 20 RBI. Michael Pineda (suspension) is making his 2020 debut and isn’t someone I’d be worried about rolling Abreu against. Pineda likely has some rust to shake off and may not even pitch far into this game.

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

I love Tucker today for all the reasons I mentioned above in the stack section when I highlighted the Astros. But if you’re not stacking Houston, Tucker seems like a solid one-off selection if you still want to get some exposure to that offense. In the last two weeks among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances, Tucker ranks 1st among all batters with an obscene .623 wOBA, 1.641 OPS, and 311 wRC+. He’s batting .441 in that stretch and has hit four home runs, a double, and five triples (which may be the most impressive part of his run). Triples are insanely hard to come by and he does have an extremely fortunate .407 BABIP in this stretch (against a career .304 BABIP). But he’ll likely bat clean-up, or perhaps fifth, in the order and Houston has one of the top projected run totals of the day. I’d be happy to roll him out in hopes that he continues this great offensive run.

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

All things considered, this is a very enticing price to pay for a guy who is going to be hitting second in the order at Coors Field. Dickerson’s season has been very unimpressive up to this point (.221 AVG, .296 wOBA, .174 ISO, 87 wRC+) but Jon Gray has struggled against lefty bats this year (like Dickerson) and has a 5.70 xFIP rating against them while also giving up all four of his allowed home runs to that side of the plate. I don’t mind throwing Dickerson out there in hope that he gets a little lucky and slugs one out of the park (which he did do in his last game in Arizona).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

Luke Voit covered me in the late innings on my home run call yesterday and I’m hoping Abreu can help me start the week 2-for-2. I detailed Abreu above in the one-off section, so you can see why I’m on board with him tonight and backing him to belt one out. I’m not putting much stock in his poor overall BvP against Pineda and I think Abreu can yam his 13th homer of the season against him tonight.

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