Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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There are 20 teams across the MLB who are receiving an off day today, so a particularly small five-game slate kicks off the workweek. Be mindful of the fact that this slate will officially start up about an hour earlier than usual with the CIN @ CLE game kicking things off at 6:10 ET -- though, FanDuel is excluding that game from it’s official main slate, however it is on the “all day” slate! Unfortunately, there is a situation out in Chicago where a rainy evening could threaten to make a short slate even shorter, but let’s keep our fingers crossed that they can manage to play without major issues (wishful thinking). As far as a small set of games go, there is actually a solid amount of both viable pitching and quality offensive/stack options. Ownership will certainly be condensed on a few select pitchers and offenses, but (in GPPs) you can simply differentiate slightly in order to avoid ‘dupe’d’ lineups (e.g. run a back-end or back-to-front stack instead of a one thru four stack). And, hey, if you’re not a fan of these small slates, feel free to play things light or just take the day off from MLB DFS. You only have to wait 24 hours for a massive Tuesday slate to show up!

Full disclosure: I am on a quick vacation until Wednesday so, while I will be putting in my normal amount of research (@ZeroInDenver’s favorite word) and effort into each newsletter, I will be abbreviating things slightly (or at least trying to)! Which, hell, some may welcome running through a less ‘wordy’ article. Okay, let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As mentioned above, we really just need to keep an eye on the Windy City match-up today.

Best hitting environments: CIN @ CLE, NYY @ KC, CWS @ MIN

Best pitching environments: MIA @ SD

CIN @ CLE (6:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Warm with game time temps around 85-90 degrees with 10+ mph winds blowing out to center.

NYY @ KC (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): HOT with 90-95 degree temps and 10+ winds blowing out to left for much of the game -- could also be blowing right to left at times.

MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9 O/U): Fairly high chance of rain before, during, and after this game is scheduled to play -- but mostly during. A postponement seems like a very real possibility here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game get called early. While it sucks to eliminate an entire game on a five-game slate, the risk here is high enough to where I will avoid mentioning players from this match-up.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN | DK: $10k, FD: $9.2k | @ CLE

Unfortunately, the weather is currently ruling Freddy Peralta ($10.5k/$10.2k) out of consideration as my preferred ‘spend up’ pitcher today. But if the forecast in Chicago looks (much) better closer to game time, by all means, feel free to roll Freddy P out in your lineups. I can’t say that I’m against spending up on Castillo either, and that $9,200 FD price tag isn’t even all that steep. After a rough start to his 2021 season, over the last 2+ months, Castillo has been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball. Dating back to June 4th (12 starts, 75.1 IP), Castillo has a superb 1.91 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 26.5% kRate. In that span, he scored no less than 15 DKFP/31 FDFP which, in the post “sticky stuff” era in pitching, that’s a feat on its own. Also, Castillo’s 103 pitches/gm over his last five starts leads the slate by a significant margin (next closest - Giolito @ 93 pitches/gm) and he’s shown terrific statcast data across the last month as well. Once Castillo gets past Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes in the order, it should be smooth sailing through the back half of the lineup.

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA

I’m expecting Musgrove to be the most popular pitching option today and I have very few issues with that. While he has been inconsistent at times, he tends to pitch a bit better at home (2.52 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 31.2% kRate). A couple of weeks ago, we saw what kind of upside he brings to the table when he is on his A-game (vs. COL -- 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 11 K, 39 DKFP, 64 FDFP). The Marlins have been posting better offensive numbers lately while lowering their typically high strikeout rate. But you have to love Musgrove’s perceived ‘floor’ here today. He’s on the mound in the best pitching environment, the Padres are the heaviest favorites (-240 ML), and Miami currently holds the lowest implied total of the day (3.1 runs). If you’re worried about the high ownership, just differentiate a bit with your bats.

Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | @ KC

It’s a risky pitching environment out in the hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium where game-time temperatures will reach 95 degrees, but there is certainly a pathway to success for Taillon today. First off, he’s been pitching well in general. Over his last eight starts (49.0 IP), Taillon has posted a very respectable 2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .213 AVG, .281 wOBA, and he’s really only had one truly bad fantasy performance in that stretch. I will say, the 4.63 xFIP over those eight games is a bit worrisome and his 22.8% kRate doesn’t scream “upside.” However, the Royals offense has simply been terrible lately. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they rank dead last in the MLB with a 49 wRC+, .189 AVG, and .243 wOBA. Essentially, they’ve been 51% worse at creating runs (vs. RHPs) in that two week stretch than the *average* MLB offense. He likely allows a couple of runs and perhaps an HR at some point, but a 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP kind of performance is very attainable for Taillon today. On a small slate, I believe you take that production at these affordable mid-range salaries.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

With only eight teams in consideration right now, I am going to skip over mentioning any one or two teams as ‘top stacks.’ 

New York Yankees vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

The Yankees are still dealing with various COVID and injury issues -- most recently losing Anthony Rizzo (COVID IL) and Gleyber Torres, who is considered day-to-day with a thumb injury (could still suit up today). But they’re still going to be an enticing stack option today with those hot temperatures and winds blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. Carlos Hernandez is coming off of a couple strong starts against the White Sox but that won’t sway me off of the Yankees too much. He’s allowing a slate high 45.4% HardHit% and if the Yankees get under a few hard hit baseballs, they could easily fly over the fence today. The Royals bullpen has been highly suspect lately as well.

Chicago White Sox vs. Beau Burrows (RHP)/Bullpen Game, MIN

Burrows is getting a spot start today and will be serving as the Twins opener and should only pitch one, maybe two, innings. Perhaps he gets through that one or two-inning workload unscathed but, without spouting off all of Burrows’ numbers, just know that he has been… not good at the MLB level. He’s also allowed five home runs in just 15.2 career IP in the MLB (2.87 HR/9). LHP Charlie Barnes is expected to serve as the Twins ‘long reliever’ following Burrows and will probably pitch across four or five innings. Barnes only has two appearances and 8.2 IP in his MLB career and nothing seems particularly scary about his minor league numbers. Also, with a hot-hitting Jose Abreu and a healthy Eloy Jimenez back in the lineup, the White Sox are always going to draw my attention against a lefty.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Gio just gave up eight hits (three HRs) and six ER across four innings in his last start against a struggling Kansas City squad. Hitting conditions are really solid out in Minnesota today and the Twins have been a borderline top 10 offense versus RHPs recently. If Giolito starts off slow for a second consecutive game, I could see a scenario where a few Twins bats do some damage against him before a strong White Sox bullpen comes in to clean up the mess. It’s not incredibly likely, but possible.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

2B/3B Jonathan India | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Beau Burrows (RHP), MIN

C Mitch Garver | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Jake Cronenworth | DK: $4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Adam Frazier | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

2B/SS Jorge Polanco* | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Beau Burrows (RHP), MIN

3B/OF Hunter Dozier | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF Brett Gardner | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

OF Luis Brinson | DK: $2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

*DK Preferred

Not a lot of great value options that jump out at the moment, but some of these guys should come through.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

Judge is creating 61.1% Hard Contact on batted balls over the last two weeks along with an average exit velocity of 96.9 mph vs. RHPs (95th percentile). Hernandez gets hit hard often and with the hot conditions in KC with winds blowing out to left (at times), it would not take a Herculean swing to send one over the fence today. And with Judge’s power, who is fully capable of some Herculean swings, he simply has to get under one with the barrel and it would easily exit the ballpark. If he doesn’t crack one-off of Hernandez, there’s a decent chance he can do so against a bad Royals bullpen. The Yankees have been pretty good to me this season when I pick one as my HR call, so I’m hoping that trend continues since I struck out all of last week!

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