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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/9 | Clear Skies Across the Country
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/9 | Clear Skies Across the Country
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We kick off the weekend with yet another loaded 14-game MLB evening slate! Remarkably, there appears to be absolutely zero weather concerns in any game tonight so we can turn 100% of our focus towards the match-ups themselves. Doing just that, I’ll keep the intro short and sweet here -- let’s get straight into tonight’s targets!
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Robbie Ray (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.8k) | LHP | ARI @ LAD
Ray’s counterpart, Walker Buehler, is arguably the best pitching play on the board… at least the highest ceiling play. But coming off of a CGSO in his last start against the Padres, which netted 51.8 DKFP/79 FDFP, he’s seen his salaries hit a season high. So if you want to save a bit of dough, Ray could be a pretty viable option despite the tough match-up. In three previous meetings with the Dodgers this season, Ray has struck out nine batters and allowed exactly three earned runs in each game. He’s also pitched very well in his 55 career innings at Dodger Stadium, where he owns a 2.13 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 37.5% kRate, and .166 opponent batting average. The Dodgers have also been pretty lackluster against southpaws in recent weeks. Over the last month, in 259 plate appearances versus LHPs they are batting just .235 (ranks 26th) with a .300 wOBA (24th), 86 wRC+ (24th), and a 24.7% kRate. Ray has a tough pathway to a win tonight, as a sizable +170 underdog, but the strikeout upside is always a factor for him and the match-up may not be as worrisome as it seems.
Yu Darvish (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.4k) | RHP | CHC @ CIN
Darvish has been pretty dialed in for a while now, especially over his last five starts where he has pitched his way to a 2.17 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, 33.9% kRate, and .198 opponent batting average. It’s been nearly two months since he had a truly poor outing and that came on the road at Coors Field. One of his better performances of the season came in his previous match-up with the Reds on July 17th when he pitched six two-hit shutout innings while striking out seven batters and earning the win. The Reds are a very righty heavy team, which plays well into the hands of Darvish and his very efficient splits versus RHBs (.180 AVG, .276 wOBA, .131 ISO, 32.8% kRate). He’s also been a bit better on the road this year, and while Great American Ball Park is far from a safe haven for pitchers, I believe he should supply you with a decent floor this evening.
Drew Smyly (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | PHI @ SF
Recommending Smyly is slightly terrifying but you can’t ignore his relative success in his three starts since signing with the Phillies. The match-up is also favorable and one that he dominated just 10 days ago when he pitched seven shutout innings in a winning effort, allowing just four hits, a walk, and striking out five. Another impressive aspect of Smyly’s recent performances is the fact that on 37 batted balls in the last month, they’ve had an average exit velocity of just 85.1 mph (top 95% among pitchers) on just 18.9% Hard Contact while traveling an average of 192.9 feet (top 90%). If he can continue those trends in the very pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, it’s tough to imagine the Giants will get too much going against him on offense. In 227 plate appearances, the Giants have just a .232 AVG (27th) against lefty pitchers over the last 30 days with a .293 wOBA (27th), .159 ISO (24th), and 82 wRC+ (24th) while striking out 24.2% of the time. Smyly seems to be far from the worst cheap pitcher to roll out tonight, especially at his sub-$6k price tag on DraftKings.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Houston Astros vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), BAL
The ‘Stros Bros are clicking on a high level right now, averaging nine runs/game over their last six contests and they’re rocking a league-leading 132 wRC+ versus RHPs over the last month. Dylan Bundy has pitched pretty ‘okay’ in some of his recent starts, and even held Houston to two runs on four hits and a walk across six innings a couple months ago in his June 9th start against them. But he has struggled mightily at home this year where he owns a 1-7 record across 11 starts with a 5.89 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and a large 2.29 HR/9 rate while allowing a .296 AVG/.378 wOBA. It’ll cost you quite a bit of coin to get a full four or five man stack going here, but just about the entire lineup feels like a strong play with Josh Reddick being about the only exception.
Kansas City Royals vs. Edwin Jackson (RHP), DET
This should be no surprise if you’re at all familiar with how awful EJax was earlier in the year before the Blue Jays sent him packing. In eight starts (28.1 IP) this season, Jackson pitched his way to an 11.12 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, 2.19 WHIP, .380 opponent AVG, and allowed a wildly high 3.81 HR/9. If you’re so inclined, you can head over to FanGraphs and get a peek at his minor league numbers from this year as well. Spoiler: they’re still pretty terrible. There’s no telling what sort of leash the Tigers are willing to have on Jackson this evening, but if he gets knocked out early then the Royals will see plenty of innings against an average/below average Detroit bullpen. White Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, and Cheslor Cuthbert are some leading KC bats to target this evening.
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL
Any time the Padres get a shot at a lesser-talented lefty, it makes sense to give them some stack consideration. Unsurprisingly, Freeland performs much better on the road but he still has a 4.91 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, and 1.79 HR/9 away from Coors Field. Nothing to be afraid of. The two top bats in this match-up are Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado -- both have a just over a .500 wOBA against lefty pitching this year. To save some salary, Hunter Renfroe and Wil Myers are both affordable and are the best lefty smashers in the order behind their two aforementioned teammates. I'm going to take Tatis Jr. as my home run call of the night. Let's see if he can go yard four games in a row! 💣
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Mike Trout (DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Brian Johnson
It’s hard to argue against spending up on Trout tonight. He faces off against a bad lefty in Brian Johnson, who allows RHBs to hit .453 with a .530 wOBA, .283 ISO, 2.70 HR/9 with just a 17% kRate. Trout has been a reverse splits hitter pretty much his entire career but he still owns a towering .432 wOBA and .304 ISO against southpaws this season. Not much to think about here -- if you can spare the salary, Trout is one of the best bets to homer on any given night. The Green Monster over in Fenway might as well be a five foot tall chain link fence at a little league park for this man.
Mike Tauchman (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k) | OF | vs. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
I’m not really sure I understand why DraftKings dropped all these Yankee salaries. They decreased Tauchman’s salary by $400… okay then. I’ll take that discount on the guy who leads all of baseball with a .410 batting average over the last month (min. 60 plate appearances). In that time, Tauchman’s .537 wOBA and 236 wRC+ ranks tops in the league as well. He’s shown more promising reverse splits in lefty of lefty match-ups but he’ll be facing a righty tonight… still not too concerned. In his last 50 plate appearances against RHPs, Tauchman is batting .378 with a 1.020 wOBA+ISO, six home runs, and 15 RBI. Reid-Foley also has traditional splits so he’ll tend to struggle much more against LHBs whom he allows a .282 AVG, .389 wOBA, and .154 ISO to. Reid-Foley also may be the ‘luckiest’ starting pitcher in baseball right now. His 2.49 ERA is thinly veiled by an atrocious 6.37 xFIP and 5.87 SIERA. Plenty of Yankees are in play today, but if you’re looking to just get a one-off guy into a lineup, Tauchman stands out as one of the best options.
Hanser Alberto (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k) | 2B/3B | vs. LHP Wade Miley
Alberto routinely draws the lead-off spot in the O’s order when an opposing lefty takes the mound. Considering Alberto is batting .401 in 151 plate appearances against southpaws this year, it’s a wise decision. Miley has been excellent this year but his 3.97 ERA on the road is nearly two runs higher than his 2.02 ERA at home. His worst splits are easily on the road against RHBs, to whom he carries a 4.98 xFIP against and allows a .248 AVG and .308 wOBA with just a 17.7% kRate. A couple base hits and a run or two is all it would take for Alberto to return value and that’s a very reachable stat line for him this evening.
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