Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Man, I don’t recall a half-slate this loaded with arm talent in quite some time. Along with the handful of ace level pitchers at the top, there are another five or six guys who make up a very stout middle tier. I’m anxious to see how all of this skill on the mound translates into overall run totals. Currently there are no glaring weather issues to worry about. All in all, this should be a great day for sports. We’ve got these eight MLB games, the PGA FedEx Cup playoffs starting up, and the first full week of NFL preseason action kicks off. Exciting stuff! Let’s round the bases on this baseball action!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

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Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (DK: $10k, FD: $9.6k) | LHP | BOS vs. LAA

Among the top tier studs, Aaron Nola is probably your safest investment considering he has a cake match-up and has scored below 20 DKFP/38 FDFP only once in his last nine starts while posting a 1.91 ERA (3.75 xFIP) and 29.7% kRate in that time. But we’re also getting a discounted Chris Sale at home where he has a massive 38.6% kRate. And while Sale’s 4.76 home ERA isn’t very impressive, his 2.73 xFIP definitely is. The Angels obviously aren’t the best match-up a pitcher could ask for but they are riding a six game losing streak and haven’t strung together more than four runs in any of those games. Since the start of their losing streak (July 31st) they are striking out 30.8% of the time (214 plate appearances) and have a paltry 70 wRC+. It’s tough to imagine they break out of their slump on the road in Boston tonight. Sale and the Red Sox are the heaviest favorites of the day (-260).

Madison Bumgarner (DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.6k) | LHP | SF vs. PHI

MadBum is another guy that just feels a few hundred bucks too cheap. A poor outing at Coors Field will tend to drop a pitcher’s price, so it’s no surprise to find him slightly priced down today. In this range, I imagine Dallas Keuchel going against Miami will be the chalk play. I don’t mind him in that spot, but he also only has a 15.2% kRate versus right-handed hitters and Miami deploys an almost exclusively right-handed lineup. Keuchel only struck out four hitters through 7.1 innings in his clash with the Marlins a month ago so the upside with him really comes into question. Speaking towards Bumgarner, he pitches considerably better at home where he has a 3.35 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 25.5% kRate, and 1.04 WHIP while allowing a .236 AVG/.273 wOBA and 0.89 HR/9. Against LHPs over the last month, the Phillies are hitting just .234 (26th) with a 90 wRC+ (21st) and a lofty 28.3% kRate. Bumgarner obviously has his work cut out for him on his pathway to earning a win, considering his counterpart is Aaron Nola and run support from his struggling offense may be lacking. But in a day and age where a pitchers’ duel doesn’t come around all too often, there’s plenty of fantasy scoring upside from both arms in this West Coast battle that features a slate-low 7.5 implied run total.

Jorge Lopez (DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k) | RHP | KC @ DET

I can’t really sit here and pretend Jorge Lopez is a great MLB pitcher but clearly the two major draws here are his low salaries and the prime Detroit match-up. With Danny Duffy on the mend, Lopez is earning the spot start this evening after spending the majority of the season in a relief role. He wasn’t particularly effective in his ten starts earlier in the year but in 19 innings pitched against Detroit (13.0 IP across two starts, 6.0 IP in relief) he has a respectable 3.79 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and allowed a .219 AVG while striking out 15 batters (18.8% kRate). Not an incredible stat line by any means but, for these salaries, you merely need a serviceable performance (read: not get blown up) which he can probably give you across five or six innings while racking up a handful of strikeouts. Not a tall order against a minor league level offense like the Tigers. With so many great options on the mound today, I don’t think you should feel forced to dip this low into pitcher pricing. But hey, if you want to throw together a slugger-heavy lineup for the hell of it, Lopez makes the most sense as a punt selection.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees vs. Thomas Pannone (LHP), TOR

Sure it's pretty obvious here, but you can’t look at the Yankees’ recent run totals and NOT consider them a top team to stack. Thomas Pannone isn’t the sort of guy that is capable of stopping them either and his 5.39 xFIP is the highest among starters today. The Yanks have absolutely torn apart left-handed pitching. Over the last month against southpaws, they’re hitting .326 (1st) with a .423 wOBA (1st), .309 ISO (1st), and 167 wRC+ (1st) on 45.6% Hard Contact (3rd). Yeah, this sort of ragtag lineup is pretty good, I’d say. It’s difficult to really say who to target here because pretty much everyone is in play. If I had to pick some favorites, I’d lean towards DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Mike Tauchman. All three of those guys have at least a .339 AVG, .434 wOBA, .244 ISO, and 174 wRC+ against lefty pitching this season.

Atlanta Braves vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

Marlins Park is, of course, a sizable park downgrade but these Braves bats have been raking so I don’t think it really matters. There’s no telling just how long Elieser Hernandez will last out there tonight, considering he has pitched just seven innings across his previous two starts. But for the time he is on the mound, Atlanta will be facing a young second year pitcher who possesses a 5.66 ERA, 5.36 xFIP, and 2.40 HR/9 while allowing 38.8% Hard Contact and 46.7% Fly Balls -- a very strong recipe for multiple Brave bombs. Hernandez is a three-pitch pitcher whose fastball averages only about 91 mph so I don’t think Atlanta will have too much trouble figuring him out quickly. The probable one through four hitters (Acuna Jr., Albies, Freeman, and Donaldson) all have strong stack potential.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

German is not a pitcher I really ever go out of my way to attack but if there’s a time to do so, it may be while he is on the road going up against some red hot Toronto hitters. In 10 road starts (54.2 IP), German holds a lackluster 5.60 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, and allows 2.30 HR/9. Toronto ranks second over the last two weeks versus RHPs with a 128 wRC+ and .363 wOBA/.265 ISO. In that time, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk are all hitting at least .344 against righties alongside a .445+ wOBA, .353+ ISO, and a 183 wRC+ or higher. Those would be my primary guys to target in this Blue Jays order.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

JD Martinez (DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k) | OF | vs. LHP Dillon Peters

Let’s try this whole “JD versus a lefty” thing again and hope he is actually in the lineup this go ‘round. Martinez gets a very obvious bump in upside against southpaws. Versus LHPs this season, he is batting .396 with a .554 wOBA, .496 ISO, while creating 49.3% Hard Contact. Against lefties across his last 20 games (30 plate appearances), his numbers elevate even more -- .478 AVG, .718 wOBA, .826 ISO with five home runs! Peters has traditional splits and he’s giving up a .317 AVG to RHBs along with a pretty lofty .386 wOBA and .238 ISO. The stars are all aligned for JD to crush Peters tonight. I'll pick some low-hanging fruit off of this tree and make Martinez my home run call of the night. 💣

Nicholas Castellanos (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k) | OF | vs. LHP Alex Wood

The Cubs needed a solid hitter capable of tagging up lefties and that’s exactly what they got with Castellanos at the trade deadline. He has wasted no time contributing to his new team, as he has hit safely in all seven games that he’s played with Chicago. In that time (since Aug. 1st), Castellanos is 11-for-29 (.379) with a .447 wOBA, .319 ISO, and 179 wRC+. On the season against LHPs, he’s batting .354 with a .442 wOBA and .278 ISO. Alex Wood is no slouch but he can be beaten by righties so a strong outing from Castellanos is a good possibility as he looks to (likely) bat second in a pretty potent Cubs order.

Jon Berti (DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k) | 3B/OF, SS | vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel

I’m not sure about stacking Miami hitters but taking a one-off batter against the Keuchel chalk may prove profitable. Since being activated off the IL on July 31st, Berti has been one of the few players with a pulse on this Marlins offense. He has gone 11-for-29 (.379) with five doubles, a triple, and three stolen bases. Keuchel has faced 105 RHBs on the road this season and has permitted a .333 AVG, .421 wOBA, .423 OBP with a 1.94 WHIP and just a 12.4% kRate. I imagine, given his recent production, Berti will find himself as the Marlins’ lead-off man. A multi-hit performance with perhaps a stolen bag and a run or two scored sounds like a pretty doable stat line for him this evening.

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