Top MLB DFS Plays 8/7 | Staying Mindful of the Volatility in Baseball

August 07, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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For many MLB DFS players, yesterday was a strong reminder of just how much we have to respect and acknowledge the volatility that is baseball. Shout out to Tyler Chatwood, who was about 30-40% owned in cash & GPP formats, for providing that reminder. It’s one of the reasons I started throwing out a team each day as the “kinda crazy stack that just might work out.” While I was on Chatwood myself, and even wrote him up as a recommended pitcher, I felt compelled to note that he was probably pitching well above his head and that stacking Kansas City bats would provide a high level of leverage. No one is untouchable in this game!

Whether you got burned by the Chatwood chalk last night or profited by going against it, today is a new day so let’s switch our focus forward! All 30 teams are scheduled to play today and a massive 13-game slate awaits us this evening. There are some weather issues to be mindful of and a postponement or two may not be out of the picture, so let’s go ahead and dig into this one.

Update: Just read that the CHC/STL game has been postponed due to COVID-19 issues.

Today’s games with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

MIN @ KC: Outside chance that a stray shower causes some sort of a delay.

MIA @ NYM: Rain may not impact the start of this game but some lighter stuff may move in throughout the later innings. It’s pretty likely that it would be light enough rain that they could just play through it.

ATL @ PHI: A flash flood watch is in effect for the Philadelphia area, so rostering anyone in this game is not without some risk. A postponement can’t be ruled out right now and I’d say this is definitely the game to keep an eye on, weather-wise, once we get closer to the scheduled first pitch (7:05 ET).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Julio Urias (LHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SF

The obvious spend-up option on the mound tonight is Trevor Bauer (DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.4k) but Urias looks like a solid pivot away from Bauer among the higher-end pitching options. While Urias didn’t light up the fantasy scoreboard in his first start of the season, which came against the Giants, he only surrendered one earned run across five innings. After hitting 90 pitches in his most previous start against Arizona, Urias should be in line for 90-100 pitches tonight. The current Giants roster is hitting just .179 while striking out 32% of the time against Urias (50 plate appearances). The Dodgers are also easily the heaviest favorite of the slate, with -260 odd to win, so there is a strong likelihood Urias can position himself to earn the win tonight.

Michael Wacha (RHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIA

Wacha isn’t a pitcher I’ve targeted in DFS very much but this seems to be as good of a night as any to test the waters and give him a shot. The Marlins simply aren’t as good as their 6-1 record would make some believe. They’re only hitting .201 against RHPs and are striking out 23.8% of the time. Wacha has a 28.9% kRate against the current Marlins roster (49 PA) and the Mets enter this evening as lofty -165 favorites. Even without a ton of strikeout potential, Wacha could end up as one of the better mid-range options considering how murky the pitching options look as a whole this evening.

Others to Consider: Griffin Canning (DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.2k) @ TEX - Could be a solid floor option considering the Rangers are only hitting .200 with a .274 wOBA and 67 wRC+ against RHPs this season. Antonio Senzatela (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k) @ SEA - Has pitched well through his two 2020 starts and he’ll get a match-up with a streaky Mariners offense that has a 25.8% kRate versus RHPs. Devin Smeltzer (DK:$6.3k, FD: $6.1k) @ KC - A risky but viable option if you need to save some salary… wouldn’t use him for cash lineups, however.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Dodgers, Twins, and Angels standout to me likely highly-owned stacks. As always, there’s nothing wrong with playing guys from these teams but be aware of higher potential ownership.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ryan Weber (RHP), BOS

Here I go again trying to will the Blue Jays into an offensive explosion. Maybe tonight is finally the night we see this young squad light up the scoreboard. Vegas seems to favor these Toronto bats tonight as well, considering they currently have an implied total of 5.5 runs. Ryan Weber has yet to make it past 3.2 innings through his first two starts and hasn’t even recorded a strikeout yet either. He’s given up four home runs and has an absurdly bad 2.43 WHIP and 11.57 ERA (9.38 xFIP). That’s obviously a super small sample size but it isn’t like Weber has looked like a good MLB caliber pitcher really at any point in his career. It would seem that the Red Sox bullpen could get some extra run tonight, and while their relievers, as a whole, aren’t one of the worst groups in the league, they’re not spectacular either. You just have to like Toronto’s chances at having a nice night out in Fenway Park.

San Diego Padres vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

Something I’m anxious to find out about tonight’s slate is whether or not Luke Weaver can bounce back after opening his 2020 season with two really poor outings. He’s given up 12 runs in just 7.1 innings of work (14.73 ERA) including three home runs and a whopping 76% Hard Contact Rate and 50% Fly Ball Rate. San Diego was one of those teams responsible for lighting Weaver up back on July 27th, and they’ll have a decent chance at a repeat performance. The Padres are 2nd in the MLB with a .220 team ISO against RHPs and their 126 wRC+ versus RHPs ranks 3rd, just behind the Yankees and Braves. If Weaver is unable to limit that hard contact and high fly ball rate, the Padres are going to eat him up again via the barrel of their bats.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Zach Davies (RHP), SD

I really don’t think this stack is *that* crazy but I just don’t believe many of these Diamondback players will carry much ownership. They are struggling on the season as a whole, scoring just 3.69 runs/game (ranks 24th) but they have 19 runs over their last two and their team 17.1% kRate against RHPs is the lowest strikeout rate in the league. On top of that, against the current Padres roster (115 PA), Davies has just a 5.2% kRate while allowing a .288 AVG.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Hardly anyone else in baseball is off to a hotter start than Castellanos. His six home runs on the season trail only Aaron Judge (7) and he ranks 3rd overall with a 223 wRC+ -- so he has been 123% *better* at creating runs than the average MLB player this season. Through his entire career, Castellanos has a .229 ISO against LHPs on top of a .306 AVG, .376 wOBA, and 138 wRC+, so it isn’t like he’s some sort of ‘flash in the pan.’ He’ll be in a killer spot tonight out in Miller Park.

OF Max Kepler | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), KC

Kepler has been a pretty stout fantasy asset for much of the last week. Going through his last seven games, Kepler is hitting .292 with three doubles, two homers, and a stolen base and a 192 wRC+ rating. He’s generating 40.5% Hard Contact alongside a 51.4% Fly Ball Rate and an average exit velocity of 89.3 mph. Junis isn’t a bad pitcher by any stretch but since the start of 2019, he has allowed LHBs to hit .289 with a .350 wOBA and .168 ISO. Kepler should get lead-off duties once again tonight and plays for a Minnesota team that is in a prime spot to put up some runs.

JaCoby Jones | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

Jones is almost always stuck dead last in the Tigers batting order, so people rarely play him but he’s actually having a terrific season early on. Among players with at least 30 plate appearances this season, Jones ranks 1st in all of baseball with a 236 wRC+. He’s hitting .380 with a .414 ISO and .501 wOBA. Realistically, he should be hitting way higher up in the lineup, but I suppose Detroit likes him where he’s at (that gets a shrug from me). Since he is still hitting ninth tonight, the fact that Jones and the Tigers are on the road increases his chances at snagging an extra at-bat since Detroit is guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning. Since people never play him, his DFS prices tend to stay super low, but I don’t see anything wrong with rolling him out as a cheap one-off bat tonight.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

I’ll be doubling down on Castellanos tonight and make him my pick to go yard. In case you skimmed past it, he is written up above in the “One-Off” section.

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