Top MLB DFS Plays 8/7 | Small Slates Deserve Some Lovin’ Too

August 07, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Our main evening slate will be a very modest one with just five games on the docket. If you’re truly an MLB DFS grinder, odds are you are focusing mostly on today’s early games (or maybe you are just procrastinating at work, let’s be honest here). But there is still research to be done, strategies to deploy, and money to be made on these smaller slates! This will be a bit more of an abridged MLB newsletter as there is only so much to cover across five games, but hopefully I can still give you a helpful perspective on this evening’s match-ups. Do remember that this slate and its contests well begin at 6:40 pm ET!

Weather Outlook 🌩️

NYY @ BAL: This small set of games could realistically get slimmed down even more if the weather in Baltimore doesn’t cooperate. There are scattered thunderstorms forecasted in the area for much of the afternoon and the coverage may only get worse in the 7:00-10:00 pm ET window in which this game is scheduled to play. As it stands now, I imagine the most likely scenario is that they start delayed in hopes of things clearing up around 9 pm ET. It’s really too tough to say with any certainty how things will play out as I write this early Wednesday morning. But for the purposes of this newsletter, I will keep everyone in play for the time being.

The MIL @ PIT and KC @ BOS games may not be completely safe from some possible isolated storms either. Both Boston and Pittsburgh have about a 20% chance of rain during their games so keep an eye on updated forecasts as we get closer to lock.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $10k, FD: $9k) | LHP | BOS vs. KC

These are pretty steep prices to pay for ERod but, as far as safety goes on this slate, he should likely be your best bet. The Red Sox are easily the heaviest favorites on the board (-290) and Rodriguez pitches with quite a bit more confidence and effectiveness at Fenway Park. In 11 home starts (66.2 IP), Rodriguez is 6-1 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 26% kRate, and .233 opponent batting average. The Royals are hitting just .222 against LHPs over the last month with a 23.8% kRate and an 82 wRC+ -- very below average figures. Certainly a large chunk of ownership will fall Rodriguez’s way but it would seem that he possesses the most secure floor out there today… if there is such a thing in baseball.

Yusei Kikuchi (DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k) | LHP | SEA vs. SD

If there were more than five games, Kikuchi most definitely wouldn’t find his way into this section. BUT, with so few options to choose from, in GPPs you have to go against the grain a bit on days like this and Kikuchi could realistically be the lowest owned starting pitcher (aside from Drew Pomeranz in an opener role). Nothing on paper supports Kikuchi as even a mediocre play today so I’m not going to blow smoke up your tailpipe and cherry pick what few promising stats he offers. But at least he’ll be taking the mound at home at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park and San Diego does have the propensity to put up those lousy two or three run offensive performances. The Padres also have guys who swing violently at damn near anything near the zone, so strikeouts are there to be had if Kikuchi can bolster some plate control. The logical thing here is to stack some Padres against Kikuchi but from a game theory standpoint, you’ve got leverage with him when rolling him out in GPPs. It’s not like he’s breaking the bank either.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Glenn Sparkman (RHP), KC

Much like the pitcher’s section, I’ll start the stack section off with (more than likely) the safest bats on the board. Sparkman has started seven games on the road while pitching across 37.2 innings. In those games, he has an 0-4 record, a 9.08 ERA, 6.66 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, 11.6% kRate while allowing a .344 AVG, .436 wOBA, and 3.11 HR/9. William Shakespeare would struggle to write a story as tragic as those numbers. Sparkman is noticeably worse against lefties but, considering he may not make it past four innings, you can pretty much stack whoever you fancy in this BoSox order. The Royals have a pretty below average bullpen as well for when Sparkman is retired, so my money would be on the over hitting on Boston’s six run implied total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

As far as contrarian stacks go, I’d imagine Kansas City and Seattle would lead the way. To expand towards some other options, I don’t imagine many will immediately look to target these Philly bats either. Gallen is a legitimate talent and not someone I will often look to attack if he continues trending the way that he has in the majors. Most people probably feel the same way so a Phillies stack should carry low ownership as a result. Gallen will also be making his Arizona debut and, as Zack Greinke showed us last night, even really good pitchers are not immune to struggling after a rapid change of scenery. Corey Dickerson, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, and Adam Haseley would be some preferred Philly targets.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mike Tauchman (DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. LHP John Means

In the last month (min. 50 plate appearances), Tauchman leads the league in both batting average (.433) and OBP (.477). His .542 wOBA and 247 wRC+ trails only Nelson Cruz in that span as well. Normally you’re not going to want to pay these sorts of salaries for a guy who typically bats eighth or ninth in the order, especially in a lefty on lefty match-up. However, Tauchman has hit LHPs much better than righties this year and he’s apparently eating his Wheaties because the man cannot seem to stop hitting and getting on base!

Carson Kelly (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k) | C | vs. LHP Jason Vargas

I rarely expect to write up a catcher as a one-off recommendation, and there’s never any certainty they’ll be in the eventual starting lineup. But I’d be shocked if Kelly rides the pine against a southpaw considering he has completely dismantled lefties this year. It’s not the largest of sample sizes, but in 70 plate appearances against LHPs, Kelly is hitting .367 with a .500 wOBA and .383 ISO while creating a massive 62.5% Hard Contact. He has a sneaky strong chance of going yard off of Vargas out in the desert.

Manuel Margot (DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

It seems the theme of today’s one-offs is attacking lefties! Margot is batting .387 versus LHPs this season with a .448 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 174 wRC+. He’s also been all-around productive lately regardless of what arm the opposing pitcher throws with. Since July 6th (24 games), Margot has a .280 AVG, .398 wOBA, .307 ISO, 150 wRC+, and is striking out just 13.5% of the time. I know I mentioned Kikuchi above in the pitcher’s section but, if we’re being realistic, San Diego likely puts some hits and runs up on the Seattle rookie. Aside from production stemming from guys like Tatis Jr. or Machado, I would expect Margot to also be a key contributor. It wouldn’t surprise me if Andy Green slots Margot back in at second in the order tonight given his very strong RvL splits.

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