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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/6 | Will You Target Greinke in His Astros Debut?
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/6 | Will You Target Greinke in His Astros Debut?
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Another Tuesday comes around which will stack our plate full of MLB action! Much like yesterday, our two primary DFS sites have slightly dissimilar main slates. This time around, it is DraftKings which has included the second game of the CWS @ DET doubleheader onto their main card while FanDuel has that game excluded. For this newsletter’s purposes I will only be including the 14 mutually shared games into my research pool. Though, I will say for anyone playing on DraftKings, that White Sox/Tigers game may be a good source of value bats. Everyone is cheap as hell, there are two lower quality starters, and it carries one of the highest totals of the day at 10.5 implied runs. We have several potential weather concerns and plenty to get into so let’s fire up the grill and get cookin’!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook 🌩️
TEX @ CLE: Perhaps our biggest trouble spot for today. A late start seems highly probable and it could be a lengthy one -- around one to two hours… maybe longer. Legitimate PPD threat here.
MIL @ PIT: Chance of an in-game delay as rain moves through the area. Could make starting pitchers pretty risky. Bats seem safe.
NYY @ BAL: Similar to Pittsburgh -- storms rolling over the ballpark may result in an in-game delay. PPD risk seems low so bats would be safe. SPs a bit risky.
LAA @ CIN: Difficult to tell exactly how impacted this game will be by rain. Could either play completely dry or catch several rainstorms.
For now, I won’t be avoiding any players in these games but, as always, see how the forecasts are looking in these cities once we get closer to game time. Fortunately, these are all games scheduled to start at either 7:05 or 7:10 ET so you should have a good idea of how you’ll be approaching the potentially impacted players here.
UPDATE: TEX @ CLE looks much riskier than it did when I began writing this article. I’ll be looking to avoid players in that game for the time being.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Zack Greinke (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.7k) | RHP | HOU vs. COL
The stud acquisition from the trade deadline looks to take make his Astros debut tonight and I believe we should fully expect good things. Greinke is the fourth most expensive pitcher on both sites and I imagine he offers just as high of a ceiling as anyone priced above him, despite Zack Wheeler having the best possible match-up. Colorado has been one of the worst teams on the road against RHPs this season where they have a .228 AVG (29th), .282 wOBA (29th), .149 ISO (27th), and a 71 wRC+ (29th) while striking out 26% of the time. Essentially, they’re only slightly better than Miami when they play on the road. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the Rockies lead the league in scoring when at home in Coors Field (6.46 runs/game) but they drop all the way to 26th averaging 4.21 runs/game in any other park. We saw Aaron Sanchez throw six no-hit innings in his Astros debut so you have to feel confident about Greinke this evening. Not saying he’ll go out there and no-hit the Rockies, but it’s almost like pitchers donning that Houston uniform get an invisible stat boost as if it were some sort of video game. Houston is at home and check in as one of the heaviest favorites of the day (-200) with Colorado tied with St. Louis for the lowest implied run total on the slate (3.5 runs).
Jon Lester (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k) | LHP | CHC vs. OAK
The upside is a bit limited here with Lester but, more often than not, he’ll give you a reasonably strong floor when pitching at home. In 11 starts at Wrigley Field (61 innings), Lester is 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, and 23.9% kRate. The opponent .288 AVG/.322 wOBA isn’t great but he does seem to be getting a bit ‘unlucky,’ as opponents have a .346 BABIP against him, which should regress. Oakland isn’t an ideal match-up but a large chunk of their lineup has shown some considerable struggles as of late so there aren’t too many reasons to shy away from Lester here. Around a 20 DKFP/40 FDFP result is about what I expect from him today.
Chase Anderson (DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k) | RHP | MIL @ PIT
Not in love with this play because Anderson does tend to struggle on the road, but he has gone eight consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs and three of those starts were away from Miller Park. He has also performed decently well in three starts against Pittsburgh this year: 15 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 23.4% kRate, 1.20 WHIP, .254 AVG, .295 wOBA. The Pirates also have just a .145 ISO versus RHPs in the last month (ranks 28th) along with an 86 wRC+ (ranks 25th). There’s definitely some risk involved and his ceiling this year has topped out at 24 DKFP/37 FDFP (vs. SEA) but in terms of a straight punt play, there are dicier options out there.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k) | LHP | NYY @ BAL
Just giving a quick mention for Cortez Jr. here as primarily a potential SP2 punt on DraftKings. If he can work even just three or four innings as the Yankees bulk reliever, that would be ample opportunity for him to rack up four or five strikeouts (maybe more) against Baltimore. He could also ‘backdoor’ a sneaky win assuming New York goes up early as they often do. The Orioles lead the league over the last month with a huge 32.5% kRate versus LHPs. A $4k price tag on DraftKings could result in immense value while allowing you to still roster a stud pitcher and just about any big bats you could want.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), ATL
Braves fans everywhere let out a woeful groan as Foltynewicz has been recalled from Triple-A and is set to make his first MLB start since June 22nd. I don’t care how well he did in his six minor league starts, he couldn’t consistently shut down big league lineups. Prior to his demotion, he was allowing production to both sides of the plate, giving up a .379 wOBA/.300 ISO to LHBs and a .364 wOBA/.260 ISO to RHBs. He also surrenders a slate-leading 2.43 HR/9 on 44.2% Hard Contact along with 42.9% Fly Balls. That’s a perfect recipe for the Twins to cook up some home runs this evening. Unsurprisingly, guys like Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, and Jorge Polanco are probably your best bets to target. I also like Luis Arraez and Jason Castro as cheap secondary options.
Cincinnati Reds (RHBs Preferred) vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA
Suarez trails only Folty among starters today by allowing 2.40 HR/9. He’s been absolutely abysmal against right-handed hitters to which he has given up a .321 AVG, .421 wOBA, .257 ISO with a 1.92 WHIP and a Hard Contact Rate and Fly Ball Rate both hovering just above 40%. I really like the chances of a bounce back day from Eugenio Suarez, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts yesterday. Elsewhere, rookie Aristides Aquino could be a solid source of production on the cheap, especially if he bats clean-up, and I would imagine that the Reds will slot in Phillip Ervin with a lefty on the mound. In 43 plate appearances against LHPs this year, Ervin has a monstrous .486 AVG, .581 wOBA, .405 ISO, and 265 wRC+.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Trent Thornton (RHP), TOR
The Rays sure didn’t put up much of a fight yesterday but that won’t stop me from going back to ‘em. They still rate out as the second most dangerous team versus RHPs over the last month, with a 120 wRC+. In two starts against the Rays this year, Thornton has survived just 7.2 innings after allowing 8 ER, 15 H, and 3 HR. He allows a bit more power to lefties so I could see Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi as solid home run threats. Elsewhere, I’d keep Jesus Aguilar and Eric Sogard on the targeting scope as well.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Javier Baez (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.3k) | SS | vs. LHP Brett Anderson
Baez will enter tonight’s game swinging a red hot bat after accruing eight hits in his last four games, including three homers, two doubles, and a triple. It’s not a major surprise that he’s had some recent success, as the Cubs’ last four games have been at home. In addition to many other peripheral stats, Baez’s batting average rises sixty points from his .260 road average up to .320 when stepping into the box at Wrigley field -- and he’s considerably better against lefties. Baez is one of those guys who vehemently swings for the fences, resulting in a high strikeout rate (28.2% kRate). However, Brett Anderson is only throwing 12% strikeouts this season so Baez should have a much better opportunity to connect full force on one of those pitches. I believe Baez will go yard for the fourth time in five days tonight. 💣
Manny Machado (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.9k) | 3B/SS | vs. LHP Wade LeBlanc
Machado is man-handling southpaws this year to the tune of a .392 AVG, .524 wOBA, and .430 ISO on 54.1% Hard Contact ultimately resulting in an elite 232 wRC+. He should get a couple cracks at lefty Wade LeBlanc who may either start or enter in as a long reliever -- as of now, it is a bit uncertain. Given his extreme splits, I’ll take my chances on Machado’s upside, especially at his DraftKings salary.
Yuli Gurriel (DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k) | 1B/3B | vs. RHP German Marquez
Gurriel was arguably a top three hitter in the month of July where he posted a .398 AVG (2nd, min 50 plate appearances), .511 wOBA (1st), .439 ISO (4th), and a 232 wRC+ (1st). He has since come back to earth a bit but he’s still getting on base regularly and, as a reverse splits hitter, he’ll get to face off with a fellow righty in Marquez tonight. Now Marquez is certainly no slouch, especially away from Coors Field where he owns a 3.20 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, and .198 opponent batting average -- but these prices for Gurriel are just too cheap for a guy that was absolutely raking just a couple of weeks ago. With the Astros lineup now back to full strength, Gurriel finds himself stuffed back at sixth or seventh in the order. He can still be productive from that spot and, if anything, that will help keep his ownership suppressed.
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