Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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In typical Friday fashion, we’ll be looking at a massive main slate this evening with 14 games in total. With plenty of suspect starting pitchers on the mound today, there is some stack appeal all over the place. Choosing which pitchers to roll within our player pool may be a bit trickier as there aren’t many guys out there today who inspire a ton of confidence. It would seem as though we’ve hit the lotto this week when it comes to problematic weather situations or lack thereof. Tonight’s set of games should all play through unscathed without the threat of any weather-related delays/postponements. Alright, let’s get the ball rolling and kick off this weekend right! Good luck tonight!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As mentioned in the intro, there’s simply nothing to worry about weather-wise today. There really aren’t even any overly warm temperatures or notable wind impacts to mention.

Best hitting environments: NYM @ PHI, TB @ BAL, DET @ CLE, PIT @ CIN, WAS @ ATL, MIA @ COL

Best pitching environments: TEX @ OAK, ARI @ SD

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Bassitt (RHP), OAK | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. TEX

I’d currently expect Bassitt to go into this evening as the most popular pitcher on the slate. He’s simply in a great spot at home against a terrible Rangers team and should be one of the ‘safest’ investments at the position. He steps on the mound at his home pitcher-friendly park. In nine starts (60.0 IP) in Oakland Coliseum this season, Bassitt has recorded a 2.70 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 24.2% kRate, and a .200 AVG/.248 wOBA. Bassitt has also pitched against Texas three times this season, going seven full innings in all three starts while allowing just two runs (0.86 ERA) and 12 hits plus 5 walks (.167 AVG, 0.81 WHIP). The Rangers just don’t have much firepower on offense these days and have a paltry 60 wRC+ over the last two weeks. They’ll head into Oakland (-300 ML) as the largest underdogs on the slate and carry a mere 3.3 implied run total.

German Marquez (RHP), COL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.9k | vs. MIA

What’s there to say about Marquez? Despite having to pitch most of his games within the confines of the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field, he’s still going out there and getting it done while posting some great fantasy performances. Now, in the overall scope of the competition, Marquez has faced, I would say that he hasn’t exactly had the toughest set of opponents to deal with. But it isn’t as if it’s his fault which teams his starts line up against. Miami shouldn’t be all that difficult to contend with today, despite the advantages that playing in Coors Field offers. They have posted an 87 wRC+ over the last two weeks, 63 wRC+ over the last week. They also have five hitters in their projected lineup who have a >27% kRate vs. RHPs. Marquez is forcing a high amount of ground balls and has only allowed two barreled balls in the last month, which is an excellent way to stay out of trouble at Coors. This $8,400 price tag on DK should make him a fairly popular target tonight. Meanwhile, the $9,900 salary on FD would make him more of a tournament play.

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | @ MIL

There are not many standout value pitchers out there today but Webb is one guy I could envision working out fairly well this evening. After dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him on the shelf for all of June, Webb has worked back up to a fully stretched-out workload throwing 45, 60, 75, 80, and (most recently) 94 pitches in his previous five starts. He’s not the biggest strikeout guy (24.1% kRate) but he does force a massive amount of ground balls (60.3% GB%) and has only allowed an 18.1% Fly Ball Rate. He has a strong 3.33 ERA on the year which is backed up by an even better 3.15 xFIP. The Brewers have gone on nice runs offensively at times, but generally, they’re a fairly average/below-average offense. In the last month vs. RHPs, their 100 wRC+ ranks 19th and they’re hitting .240 (20th) with a .322 wOBA (17th) and .174 ISO (14th). This game possesses the lowest total on the slate and, assuming Webb reaches 90+ pitches again, he could certainly come through with 6+ solid innings of work.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

There are so many strong stack options to choose from today but I’d say the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros stand out as two teams where you can find plenty of reliable options. Also, the Colorado Rockies will be the preferred side of the Coors Field match-up.

Atlanta Braves vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

The Braves have been smoking righty pitching lately and over the last week (122 plate appearances) they’re batting .350 with a .425 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 166 wRC+. In two previous starts against Atlanta this season, Fedde gave up ten runs on 11 hits and five walks across just 6.2 innings of work. He’s looked like a serviceable starter at times this season but when he doesn’t come out with his best stuff on any particular day, he tends to get shelled early and often. The Washington bullpen has also rated out as a bottom 10 unit over the last month. Atlanta’s 5.26 runs/gm at home this year ranks them as the 4th best ‘home offense’ in the league and they have a nice pathway to more offensive success today.

New York Yankees vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

The Yankees are starting to show some more pop in their bats but it certainly helps to draw some cushy match-ups, as they have lately. The acquisitions of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo via the trade market clearly doesn’t hurt either. They’ll get to take on Marco Gonzales. who enters this game with a 5.15 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, .395 xwOBA, and a slate-high 10.1% Barrel%. Even when they’re not playing at their best, the Yankees have been consistently strong against southpaw pitching. On the season, their .338 wOBA and 115 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 2nd among all 30 MLB teams. The Seattle bullpen has been fairly solid but I do wonder how any set of pitchers could look at the one thru five hitters in this Yanks lineup (LeMahieu, Rizzo, Judge, Stanton, Gallo) and expect to consistently find success. 

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

Is this a sneaky stack? No way. But I do believe that, aside from one or two hitters (primarily Matt Olson), Oakland will go under-owned as a full on stack. You clearly have to love the match-up with Folty here. The guy just loves giving up the long ball and he’s allowed multiple home runs (as many as four in one game) in nine of his 21 starts this season. He also doesn’t really have any favoritism to who he lets go yard on him. Against RHBs, he’s allowing a .271 ISO and 2.39 HR/9. Versus LHBs, he’s allowing a .307 ISO and 2.66 HR/9. Oddly enough, Folty has actually had decent starts against Oakland in the three games he’s played them this year: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, .208 AVG, and he averaged 19.1 DKFP/35.3 FDFP. Still, he did give up five home runs in those three games but I point out his past performances to show that there is some risk involved here, especially since the Rangers bullpen hasn’t been all that bad either. There is still a good chance Oakland can come through with a nice game here with a few home runs to boot.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Joey Votto | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. JR Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B/3B Jed Lowrie | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TB

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), ATL

C Kyle Higashioka | DK: $3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Sam Hilliard | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sandy Alcanatara (RHP), MIA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

I’ve been on a bit of a drought with these home run calls recently so hopefully, Tucker can change that as we head into the weekend. He has homered six times off of righties over his last 20 games (62 PA) while hitting .309 with a .452 wOBA and .400 ISO. Bailey Ober has had issues with LHBs, like Tucker, and has allowed a lofty .258 ISO and 2.42 HR/9 to that side of the plate. For every fly ball, a lefty hitter has knocked against Ober, 20.7% have gone for home runs. I’m hoping Tucker can get under one or two tonight and send one into the stands out in right field.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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