Top MLB DFS Plays 8/6 | Check Your Watches! DK Main Slate Starts Early Today!

August 06, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple| Google| Spotify| iHeartRADIO| Stitcher

For those working or just hanging at home on this fine Thursday, you’ve got plenty of all-day sports action to pop on the TV. The PGA Championship just teed off this morning and there are a few baseball games going as well. Normally FanDuel is the site that chooses to include some of the slightly earlier games onto their main slate but tonight it’s DraftKings that is starting up its main MLB slate early (at 6:05 pm ET). Be sure to keep this in mind if you are primarily playing on DK! For the sake of this newsletter, I will be focusing on the five mutually shared games between both sites.

It ultimately comes down to personal preference, but with a smaller slate on deck this evening, I’d recommend going lighter on the bankroll and probably stick mostly to GPPs. Again, that’s just my thoughts. If you’re stacking, it may also be a good slate to try throwing some wraparound stacks out there (Example: Stacking batters 8, 9, 1, 2, 3 in a team’s order). That is simply so your lineup can be highly unique and, hey, if it hits, it hits!

Today’s games with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TOR @ ATL: Outside chance of a pop-up storm that could bring forth a delay/late-start. Just your usual Atlanta precautionary advisory. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Chatwood (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ KC

Chatwood is the more obvious spend-up option this evening (again, when looking at the five games starting after 7 pm ET). Through two starts and 12.2 IP in this season he has allowed just one run while striking out 19 batters resulting in a wildly high 40.4% kRate. Clearly it’s a small sample size and all that, and considering he is a guy with a career 16.8% kRate, he is probably going to run into the regression monster soon. But it may not be tonight. Kansas City continues their ride on the struggle bus and have now lost six straight games while averaging just 2.3 runs/game in that span. In a collective 369 plate appearances against RHPs, the Royals have a collective .272 wOBA and 74 wRC+ and have struck out 23% of the time. So, while I probably wouldn’t expect the high strikeout numbers to continue, Chatwood feels like a solid foundation to build lineups around tonight. 

Josh Lindblom (RHP) | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | @ CWS

Clearly getting a bit risky here, but I’m still intrigued by the cheap Lindblom play. He exited his season debut after just 3.2 IP (3 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 5 K on 64 pitches -- 10.7 DKFP, 20 FDFP) due to back spasms. But, after skipping one start in the rotation, he is reportedly fine and ready to go tonight. Lindblom piques my interest simply due to how insanely strong his numbers were in the KBO over the last two years. Across 363.1 IP and 56 starts in the 2018 & 2019 seasons, Lindblom posted a 35-7 record while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA alongside a near 1.00 WHIP and 24% kRate. His 2019 campaign was strong enough to earn him KBO MVP honors. Of course it is an incredibly large leap in the level of talent, going from the KBO to the MLB, and the White Sox are playing some solid baseball. But I still would like to think Lindblom is worth throwing out into some GPPs as a cheap option. As long as his back doesn’t flare up again, he could easily get six or seven innings of work in and pay off these low salaries, assuming he doesn’t get shelled early.

Also Consider: Jordan Yamamoto (DK: $8.4k, FD: $5.7k) vs. BAL -- He’s making his first start of 2020 and may be on a bit of a pitch count, but he is way too cheap on FanDuel for the sort of upside he possesses.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Across these five games, to me, the Cubs stand out as the only team that may end up being chalky. Perhaps the White Sox as well.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

I’m willing to roll the dice on the young, but highly talented Toronto Blue Jays again. They’re still only averaging a measly 3.11 runs/gm this season but THEY’RE DUE for an offensive outburst. Toussaint has some strong strikeout ability but he’s definitely shown some control issues. In his brief MLB career, which started in 2018, across 77.1 IP he has a 5.24 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, and a 1.56 WHIP alongside a high 14.4% Walk Rate. Toronto has a ton of power in their lineup that simply hasn’t reached its potential yet this season. Since the start of 2019, Toronto’s .194 ISO against RHPs ranks 7th in baseball and their 185 HRs since then ranks 9th. Even on a shorter slate, you’re likely to get these Blue Jay bats at fairly low ownership. Maybe tonight is the night it pays off.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Kansas City Royals vs. Tyler Chatwood (RHP), CHC

This is, of course, a pure leverage stack. Kansas City has been a miserable offense lately but Chatwood is likely to be highly owned tonight and even though I on board with him in this spot, as I mentioned above, he is pitching pretty far above his head so far through his first two starts in 2020. If the Royals can manage to actually tag him up early, you’d have a sizable advantage against the field if you have some Kansas City exposure to your lineups.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Gonna go back to the well with Contreras tonight. In his 29 plate appearances against RHPs, he is hitting .385 with a 234 wRC+ and is generating an insane 94.1% Hard Contact Rate. Even though those numbers will regress, it would seem that he’ll be hitting a bunch of dingers in the not-so-distant future.

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), BAL

It’s only a 21 at-bat sample size but Aguilar has produced a massive .429 ISO with three homers to his name in just six games. He may not be the most reliable guy, as a career .255 hitter (.190 this season), but the home run upside is hard to ignore. LeBlanc has allowed a .205 ISO to RHBs since the start of 2019, so the chance for a fourth dinger in 2020 is definitely there for Aguilar tonight.

1B/C Victor Caratini | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

It seems odd to recommend two catcher eligible hitters on the same team as one-off options, but Caratini stands out as one of the better values on the slate among the cheap bats. He’s a pretty reliable bat, hitting .290 so far this year and as a switch hitter his career batting average is about .040 higher against RHPs (.262 vs. RHPs, .221 vs. LHPs). A hit or two with a run or RBI is about all you’re asking for at these salaries and Caratini can certainly deliver that sort of stat line tonight.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF Cavan Biggio | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

Toussaint really struggles with lefty hitters (like Biggio) and has given up a .411 wOBA and .202 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. In the early goings of his pro career, Biggio has 15 HRs in 260 at-bats against RHPs as opposed to 3 HRs in 131 at-bats against LHPs -- so five times the amount of HRs against righties in essentially just twice the amount of opportunities. Both of his homers this season have been at the expense of righty pitchers and I believe he can get ahold of his third homer of 2020 tonight against Toussaint.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger with a 👍 or 👎

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Check back tomorrow for a freeroll contest link!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.