Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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A saucy six-game main slate is on the menu for this evening (along with the first preseason NFL game!). There are some fairly straightforward offensive options out there with seven teams currently holding a >4.8 implied run total. Viable pitchers are a bit more scarce to come by and I imagine most will gravitate towards the two top options -- Framber Valdez and/or Sonny Gray. Going with one (or both on DK) of those guys will 100% be the ‘safest’ route to take tonight. So, I’d say the major difference-maker will be landing on the correct cheap bats in your stacks and one-off selections. Also, at least a couple of the remaining pitchers will end up returning value. The trick, as always, is simply figuring out who that will be! Alright, let’s get the ball rolling and dive right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We are once again blessed with a clear forecast for this evening’s games!

Favorable hitting environments: CLE @ TOR, PIT @ CIN

Favorable pitching environments: MIN @ HOU

KC @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Winds blowing in from right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: 9.7k | vs. MIN

If I have to decide between one of either Valdez or Gray ($9.3k on both sites), then I’m slightly leaning Framber’s direction. The glaring issue with Sonny Gray is the fact that he simply hasn’t performed consistently well at home in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, where he has a 5.23 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and has allowed 1.88 HR/9 this season. Gray does possess the better strikeout upside between the two -- 29% kRate for Gray vs. 21.5% kRate for Valdez -- though, Grays opponent, Pittsburgh, doesn’t strikeout very much at all. In place of a high kRate, Valdez simply forces an insane amount of groundouts. He leads all MLB starters (minimum 40 IP) by a WIDE margin with his 71.3% Ground Ball Rate. The Twins may not seem like an ideal match-up initially but they’ve actually struggled quite a bit against lefties lately. In the past two weeks, they’ve had 151 plate appearances versus LHPs and have hit for a mere .183 AVG with a 69 wRC+ while striking out 25.8% of the time. It certainly helps that Nelson Cruz is no longer a part of that lineup. The Astros are the largest favorites on the slate (-240) and we should expect a solid game out of Valdez here.

Nestor Cortes (LHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SEA

The obvious concern with rostering Cortes in DFS is the risk that he may only throw 70-80 pitches, at most. After almost exclusively being utilized as a reliever or opener, Cortes has been taking on more of a traditional starter’s role as the Yankees rotation deals with a slew of injuries and COVID complications. His price may be a touch restrictive on DK, but I still believe he’s viable on this small slate. The $5,500 price tag on FD makes him super intriguing and I would expect him to be pretty popular there tonight since he would unlock basically whatever bats your heart desires. Cortes is an excellent strikeout pitcher who leads the slate with a 30.5% kRate on the year. He has maintained a superb 1.93 ERA -- though he has been getting a bit fortunate, evidenced by his 3.58 xFIP. Still, that’s a solid number and Cortes has been allowing less than one base runner per inning (0.95 WHIP). Seattle has been a sneaky good offense at times this season but they have struck out 30.1% of the time vs. LHPs over the last two weeks while batting .217 with a .295 wOBA and 91 wRC+. If Cortes ever gets fully stretched out to a 90+ pitch workload, he’s going to post some very strong fantasy performances. Even if he only lands at that 70-80 pitch count, he should still be a viable DFS option today.

Touki Toussaint (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | @ STL

Will we see the good or bad version of Touki tonight? Toussaint has historically either performed well or gets completely torched… there often isn’t much middle ground. I’m thinking he can fall on the positive side of things today against the Cardinals. St. Louis has been playing better as of late but, for the most part, they’ve been a middling offense all year. Toussaint of course has just three starts and 17.0 IP under his belt this year, but despite getting shelled in his last outing, he still holds a very strong 3.02 xFIP along with a 1.06 WHIP, 28.2% kRate, and a slate-best 13.7% Swinging Strike Rate. I believe if he can get settled in early on, he will go on to have a productive day on the mound (that is a big “if”). Also, as a Braves fan, I might just buy a Touki jersey if he can help get us over .500 for the first time this season.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

No one or two teams stand out as super obvious go-to stack targets on this small slate.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

The Reds are almost always in play, especially at home in the ultra hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark where they rank as the 3rd best home offense and average 5.39 runs/gm. Across the last two weeks, they’ve also been the top overall offense versus RHPs -- .294 AVG, .397 wOBA, .258 ISO, 147 wRC+ (all rank 1st in the MLB in that span). Crowe is coming off of back-to-back strong starts against some decent competition (SF & PHI). However, he has still been wildly inconsistent in the long term and also possesses some poor reverse splits (vs. RHBs: .392 wOBA, 1.61 WHIP, 2.61 HR/9). The Pirates bullpen has been a point of weakness as well, so Cincy should have plenty of quality match-ups at the plate today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

McKenzie has been allowing a ton of fly balls (51.3%) and has been getting hit hard (48% HardHit%) with a high overall exit velocity (92.8 mph). That’s a dangerous combo as he goes up against the homer-happy Toronto Blue Jays who have hit more four-baggers against right-handed pitching than any other team in the league (123 HRs). The Cleveland bullpen has also allowed a league-high 2.05 HR/9 over the last month alongside a 5.24 ERA (2nd highest). If you’re in the market for a few home runs, you could likely find that upside here within the Blue Jays lineup.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Indians vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

The back half of this Cleveland order is not all that appealing to me but the likely one thru four hitters carry some stack appeal. Most will be targeting the aforementioned Blue Jays in this game and Ross Stripling may end up as a semi-popular pitching target as well. However, he has been showing some concerning statcast numbers -- most notably with his slate-high 28.3% Line Drive% and 43.5% Hard Contact Rate over the last month. The Jays pen has some good arms in there but, overall, they have been fairly middle-of-the-road lately as well (4.47 xFIP over the last month, ranks 15th). I could see Cleveland getting five or six runs in this spot with much of the production coming from those top of the order bats (Straw, Rosario, JRam, Reyes). All four should carry modest ownership.

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF George Springer | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), SEA

C Sal Perez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/SS Kyle Farmer | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

3B Santiago Espinal | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B/2B/3B Aledmys Diaz | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF/2B Hoy Park | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), CIN

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

I’m looking to get a homer via Griffin Jax’s awful reverse splits. He’s faced 72 RHBs this season and has allowed a .317 AVG, .399 wOBA, .317 ISO, and six home runs which equates to a 3.45 HR/9 Rate. Among the Astros RHBs, Altuve has produced the highest ISO (.266) and 20 of his 25 HRs this season have come at the expense of RHPs. Also of note, the Astros return home today from an eight game road trip. Altuve has 12 HRs and a monstrous .364 ISO vs. RHPs at home this year.

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