Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 8/5 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 2:09 Yankees @ Baltimore

• 4:04 Offense in Pittsburgh

• 6:00 Castillo & Reds Bats

• 9:16 Mike Minor @ Indians

• 12:52 Boston Bats

• 17:56 Braves @ Twins

• 21:05 Value Bats

• 22:20 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Here’s to hoping you all had an enjoyable weekend and, if you were dabbling into some DFS action, ideally it was a profitable weekend as well! After glancing through LineStar MLB chat this morning, I see we have another big winner within the community -- congrats @Henyhen for shipping a $20k top prize over on FanDuel last night! Great job buddy!

This evening’s main slate differs slightly between our two primary sites. FanDuel has included the second game of a doubleheader between the Marlins and Mets, while DraftKings has that game excluded. For the sake of consistency, I will be focusing on the twelve mutually shared games on deck for tonight. With no overly concerning weather-related issues to worry about we can go ahead and get down to brass tacks!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Lucas Giolito (DK: $11k, FD: $9.8k) | RHP | CWS @ DET

No disrespect to Luis Castillo, but the top pitching play of the day really feels like a two-man race between Lucas Giolito and Charlie Morton. As good as Morton is, especially at home, his match-up against Toronto is a bit tougher than it may seem, as they have been the 6th best offense against RHPs over the last two weeks (114 wRC+) and have hit 24 homers off of righties in that time as well -- four more than the next closest team (Twins) in that span. Detroit, on the other hand, has consistently deployed one of the least intimidating lineups in all of baseball, only made weaker by trading away Nicholas Castellanos. They’ve managed to score more than four runs just three times in their last 18 games. Against RHPs over the last month, they’ve stitched together a measly .219 AVG, .276 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 69 wRC+ -- figures that rank them inside the bottom five in each category. Their 27.2% strikeout rate is the third highest in baseball during that stretch as well. Giolito has shown considerably stronger splits when starting on the road this year in which he has a 2.76 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 30.4% kRate and opponents are hitting just .209 against him with a .264 wOBA. As a result of all of that, Giolito is averaging +7.1 DKFP on the road as opposed to at home. I would view him as a play in all formats at his FanDuel price, but may lean towards using him only in GPPs for DraftKings. He has a chance to regain the form he had back in May and early June when he takes the mound this evening in Detroit.

Kyle Hendricks (DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k) | RHP | CHC vs. OAK

The middle tier of pitcher pricing leaves a lot to be desired so, while I don’t typically highlight two $9k+ arms, I think Hendricks deserves a strong look today in lineups where you aren’t aiming to target the higher-end studs. Hendricks has been much more stout when pitching at Wrigley Field where he has allowed just 13 earned runs in 62 innings pitched, resulting in an ultra-impressive 1.89 ERA. At home he is also posting a strong 0.89 WHIP and 23% kRate while allowing just a .206 AVG/.241 wOBA on 28.1% Hard Contact. As a result, he’s averaging an additional +11.1 DKFP on the hill at home. Hendricks’ fantasy outputs haven’t been incredible lately but it’s largely due to a lack of strikeouts because he’s allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last eight starts -- and that one game was on the road against the Dodgers. Oakland has the 10th highest strikeout rate against RHPs over the last month (23.7%) so I think we can reasonably expect Hendricks to have a good shot at fanning around seven or eight A’s this evening. Hendricks is also averaging just below 7.0 innings pitched in each home start this year, so we can also look for him to throw deep into tonight’s game. Other guys may carry a higher ceiling tonight, but Hendricks should possess a strong floor when he trots out there to face the A’s.

Aaron Civale (DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.6k) | RHP | CLE vs. TEX

Civale impressed in his June 22nd MLB debut against Detroit where he pitched six scoreless innings allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out six and earning the win. He’ll garner his second professional start this evening at home against the Rangers. This is a Texas team that is starting to heat back up recently, after scoring at least five runs in eight of their last nine games. However, they’re still striking out a ton with a league-high 30.4% kRate against RHPs over the last month, alongside a 71 wRC+ that ranks 27th in that span. Civale has posted very impressive numbers at the Triple-A level this season. In eight starts (42.1 IP) he holds a 3-1 record with a 2.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26.1% kRate, and an 83% LOB%. His 4.20 xFIP is a tad concerning, being over two runs higher than his ERA, but given these DFS prices if he lets up two or three runs it shouldn’t crush his value. There’s still really nice strikeout potential here along with a reasonably wide path for Civale to earn a win as the Indians are sizable -160 home favorites.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees vs. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP), BAL

The Yanks are once again an easy stack to target today, having destroyed Baltimore this season, especially at Camden Yards. In 258 at bats against the O’s in Baltimore this year, the Yankees are batting .318 with a .440 wOBA, .364 ISO, and 179 wRC+ while crushing 27 HRs. Gabriel Ynoa is expected to start today but isn’t slated to pitch very far into this game so expect another one of those games filled with Baltimore bullpen innings. New York is perpetually banged up so it’s a bit tough to predict what their starting lineup will look like. For now, I’d look to consider Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Brett Gardner -- all three have at least a .449 wOBA in 29+ plate appearances against Baltimore on the road this year.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Dario Agrazal (RHP), PIT

Agrazal has a slate-worst 6.20 xFIP heading into tonight alongside a slate-low 11.6% strikeout rate. His .230 BABIP stands out as an unsustainably low figure and, despite the pitcher-friendly home environment that he has at PNC Park, I could envision the struggling Brewers busting out of their slump today. It’s only a sample size of 76 batters faced, but Agrazal has shown very poor reverse splits as he has allowed RHBs to hit .304 with a .409 wOBA and .279 ISO. That will likely make Keston Hiura and Ryan Braun two of my preferred Brewer bats. Elsewhere, you can take the gamble by spending up on Christian Yelich or perhaps consider the likes of lead-off man Lorenzo Cain.

Tampa Bay Rays (RHBs Preferred) vs. Jacob Waguespack (RHP), TOR

The Rays are easy to gloss over when searching for stack-able offenses but their lineup has been somewhat quietly crushing right-handed pitching lately. Over the last month against RHPs, they boast a .274 AVG (6th), .350 wOBA (4th), .214 ISO (5th), and 121 wRC+ (2nd). Waguespack has been pretty dreadful in his reverse splits against righty bats, to whom he allows a .333 AVG, .414 wOBA, and .246 ISO. Also, how intimidated can you be by a guy named “Waguespack?” I’ll gladly look to stack up the likes of Tommy Pham, Travis d’Arnaud, Jesus Aguilar, and Avisail Garcia, among others.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

JD Martinez (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. LHP Mike Montgomery

Martinez’s 2019 season may not be his most illustrious year to date but you cannot ignore him whenever he gets an opportunity to face a lefty. Martinez is hitting .390 against LHPs with a massive .548 wOBA, .490 ISO, on 47.3% Hard Contact and 45.9% Fly Balls -- and in just 100 at bats against lefties, he has 14 home runs. His 239 wRC+ versus lefties is more than double that of his 99 wRC+ against RHPs. So what does that essentially tell us? It indicates that Martinez goes from an average run producer when facing a righty to an arguably top five offensive weapon in all of baseball when stepping into the box against a southpaw. Mike Montgomery is not a pitcher that instills very much fear into the hearts of opposing batters and if Martinez can get at least two cracks at him, I’ll say he goes yard in one of ‘em. He’ll be my home run call of the night. 💣

Josh Donaldson (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k) | 3B | vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi

This here is a full on BvP narrative play. In 30 PAs against Odorizzi, Donaldson is hitting .240, which isn’t remarkable, but throw in the fact that he has five home runs paired with a 1.075 wOBA+ISO and I’d say that is definitely a noteworthy one-sided affair. Donaldson has been a pretty neutral splits hitter throughout the course of his entire career, but this year he is decidedly leaning in the direction of exhibiting reverse splits, as he’s been much stronger against RHPs (.273 AVG, .392 wOBA, .273 ISO, 21 home runs). Odorizzi has honestly dominated right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .174 AVG, .254 wOBA, and .137 ISO, but some guys are just able to see certain pitchers better. We’ll see if that continues to be the case for Donaldson when he faces off against Odorizzi tonight.

Scooter Gennett (DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k) | 2B | vs. RHP Erick Fedde

Gennett finally showed some pop in his bat that we know he is capable of producing when he homered for the first time this season this past Saturday in just his second game with the Giants. Sure, it was at Coors Field, but Gennett wouldn’t be the first hitter to begin busting out of a slump in that ballpark. Aside from his low price tags, a large draw with Scooter today is obviously his match-up. Erick Fedde allows LHBs to hit for .340 with a .405 wOBA and .186 ISO with just a 14.7% kRate. Looking at the long term numbers for Gennett, he is hitting .308 against RHPs in his last 150 games along with a strong .577 wOBA+ISO and 18 home runs. He probably has better odds than not of giving you a goose egg tonight, but there’s a decent amount of upside as well. This is very much a “like it, don’t love it” sort of play that is heavily driven by the low salaries.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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