Top MLB DFS Plays 8/5 | Can Some Top-Level Pitchers Bounce Back?

August 05, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Wednesday brings us another sizable 10-game evening slate to dig into. We’ll have to decide just how much we’re willing to trust some of these starting pitchers, many of whom are making their third start of the season. Guys like Hyun Jin Ryu and Sean Manaea just haven’t looked nearly as strong as they have in previous seasons. Meanwhile, you have pitchers like Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, and Lance McCullers Jr., among others, who have put up solid numbers in one of their previous starts while posting a super underwhelming stat line in the other. The safest route with pitching is to simply play the match-ups, but I’d recommend getting a little bold in your GPP approaches today.

Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TEX @ OAK: It’s a pretty quiet day with very little to concern ourselves about in the way of weather, but I suppose it’s worth mentioning these 12 mph winds blowing out to left field tonight in Oakland. Those winds likely don’t have a significant impact on this game due to the cool coastal climate, but at the very least, you can give the slightest of bumps to bats here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $9.5k | @ KC

I’m seeing a bit of early disdain for Darvish on the LineStar app by way of users ‘hating’ a player and I’m not sure why. I guess maybe because he’s on the road? Or he’s one of those higher end pitchers who has struggled in one of their two starts this season? Regardless, he enters in off of a strong shutout performance across six innings (86 pitches) that featured just three base-runners, 7 Ks, and a win -- good for 29.7 DKFP/49 FDFP. Yes, it was an easy Pirates match-up but Kansas City may not pose to be a much more difficult challenge. The Royals enter today as losers of five straight games (2.6 runs/gm in that stretch) and, against RHPs (337 PA), they’re hitting just .223 with a .281 wOBA and 79 wRC+. Kansas City is full of righty bats and since the start of 2019, against RHBs, Darvish has a 35.8% kRate, 1.00 WHIP, and 3.01 xFIP. If I’m spending up on a pitcher tonight, I’d likely feel the best about Darvish. The Cubbies are also currently the heaviest favorite of the slate at -200.

Randy Dobnak (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.1k | @ PIT

If there was a team that “just don’t got it” this season, it’s the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of the 12 players on the PIT roster who have at least 20 plate appearances this season, only three guys (Evans, Moran, Tucker) have a wRC+ above 67. So, basically, you take your precisely average player in the MLB right now…. nine of the Pirates top 12 guys are *at least* 33% worse than that guy. Against RHPs this season (290 PA), PIT is dead last with a meager 39 wRC+ and are striking out 27.9% of the time. Dobnak only has 37.1 IP in his MLB career but he looked really solid in his last start against Cleveland (5 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 4 K, Win -- 20.3 DKFP, 33 FDFP) and was stretched out to 94 pitches. Since we have to assume he’ll be granted a similar starter’s workload, given the match-up and affordable prices, Dobnak has to be viewed as a strong, value option today. The Twins are also heavily favored with -180 odds to win.

Others to Consider:

Mike Clevinger (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k) vs. CIN -- He hasn’t shown his best stuff just yet but the matchup isn’t horrible and he can throw double-digit strikeouts against any team in baseball when he’s on.

Lance McCullers Jr. (DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k) @ ARI -- Could definitely have a quick bounce-back performance and possesses 8+K upside.

Tejay Antone (DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k) @ CLE -- Probably the most appealing punt candidate if you’re eyeing Coors & other big bats. Tallied 16 DKFP/25 FDFP in 4.1 IP against the Cubs in his MLB debut.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Giants, Cubs, and Astros are likely all going to be fairly popular stacks. Nothing wrong with playing them, just expect high ownership on the primary guys on those teams.

Chicago White Sox vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

The White Sox have been really strong against righty pitching so far this season. In 334 at-bats versus RHPs, they’re hitting .278 (ranks 2nd in MLB) alongside a .340 wOBA (ranks 7th) and 125 wRC+ (ranks 4th behind Yankees, Braves, and Astros). Houser is a decent enough pitcher but is, by no means, someone to shy away from and the Brewers bullpen has given up 2.27 HR/9.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), ATL

The Blue Jays are not off to a torrid start to their 2020 campaign, as their 89 wRC+ ranks 22nd and their 3.25 runs/gm rank 27th. But this team is just loaded with a ton of young talent and I think sooner rather than later, they’re going to go off for a big night. Sean Newcomb is coming off a game where he allowed multiple HRs and six earned runs across 4.1 innings and is definitely worth stacking against.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Seattle Mariners vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Arenado has a chance to make it three dingers in three days when he shows up to Coors Field tonight. He boasts a .280 ISO versus RHPs in his last 150 games and Logan Webb has allowed a .314 AVG, .391 wOBA, and .209 ISO to RHBs since the start of last year. He likely won’t make it past four innings of work but ‘Nado could have a couple cracks at him before the struggling Giants bullpen enters in relief.

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Spending up on catchers is often a high-leverage move to make, as most people either just want to find a cheap one who can *maybe* get them 5-10 FP or, on FanDuel, you can just choose not to play one all together due to the “C/1B” option. Contreras is catcher who is often worth shelling out a bit more of your salary for. He may have *only* two home runs so far through ten games but he may be on the verge of many more. He is absolutely smashing the ball, making 76.2% Hard Contact on his batted balls this season, which currently leads the MLB (min. 30 PA) -- just ahead of Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. He has a career .228 ISO against LHPs so if he can get a couple ABs at Bubic (who didn’t look all that great in his MLB debut), then he’ll have a good shot at knocking out home run #3 tonight.

OF Brian Goodwin | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

If Goodwin is set to continue batting in the top half of this Angels order, with Shohei Ohtani currently ‘day-to-day,’ then he should have plenty of RBI/run opportunities with great hitters like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and David Fletcher around him in the lineup. Goodwin is currently hitting .303 this season (.425 wOBA) with a 13.2% Walk Rate, resulting in a strong .395 OBP. He’s also shown some power with a couple homers already beside a .303 ISO. Goodwin has shown some reverse-splits tendencies throughout his career, so the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Gonzales isn’t too concerning.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

(See above)

I’m doubling down on Contreras today. I’m liking the fact that he’s on the road (Cubs guaranteed at-bats in the 9th inning) and also away from Wrigley Field where some fairly strong winds have been blowing in for several of their recent home games. Let’s go Willson!

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