By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2020 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8-4 On Deck Podcast With Joe Pisapia & KC Bubba

• 5:45 Early Slate

• 8:30 Mets @ Nats

• 11:03 Max Fried vs. Toronto

• 14:39 White Sox @ Brewers

• 17:44 Kyle Hendricks vs. KC

• 19:48 SF Bats

• 22:36 Dodgers @ Padres

• 24:34 Astros @ D’backs

• 26:36 Angels Bats

• 29:45 HR Calls

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A few games are knocked off today’s MLB schedule due to either hurricane-enforced precautions or ongoing COVID-19 team restrictions, but we still have a robust ten-game evening slate to dive into. We can also welcome back the Miami Marlins along with their numerous call-ups who are helping to replace the players who previously tested positive for the coronavirus. Also, the Nationals return to action after a few days off, due to having their series with Miami postponed. As I mentioned yesterday, I’m on a little vacay for a few days so while I’m still getting the research in, the newsletter itself will be abbreviated a bit. No time to waste, so let’s jump right into the nitty-gritty!

Tonight’s games with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

NYM @ WAS: Fortunately they were able to avoid canceling this game due to the hurricane/tropical storm, but the only concern is field conditions. Assuming it’s in solid shape, this game should play without issue.

MIA @ BAL: Same situation as Washington. As long as the field conditions are playable, no issues here.

KC @ CHC: 10 mph winds blowing in gives a slight bump to pitchers. Not quite as much of a pitcher’s advantage as yesterday, but still worth noting.

TEX @ OAK: Around 10 mph winds blowing out to left but that doesn’t mean as much for a West Coast city like Oakland.

SF @ COL: Slight rain chances throughout this game but not cause for much concern.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TOR

So far in this season’s early goings, Fried has built upon his solid 2019 campaign by pitching some solid baseball through two starts. It’s only 11.2 innings to go off of, but up to this point Fried has posted a 0.69 WHIP, 27.9% kRate, and a 3.08 xFIP while allowing just five hits (.128 opponent AVG). In 61 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Toronto has just a .196 AVG, .223 wOBA, and a lofty 31.1% kRate. Obviously they will improve upon those numbers and we’re still dealing with small 2020 sample sizes, but Fried should be in line for another strong performance and Atlanta is one of the heaviest favorites of the day (-180).

German Marquez (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SF

There are definitely safer mid-range pitching options out there today (Woodruff, Hendricks, Heaney, etc.) but if there’s a preferred Rockies pitcher to take the occasional chance on when they’re playing at Coors Field, it’d probably be Marquez. He has posted an impressive 2.74 xFIP across his initial two starts this season and his low 25% Fly Ball Rate & 35.7% Hard Contact Rate is in line with his career averages, and are figures that tell us that he *should* be a decent bet to limit home runs to his opponents. Marquez has pitched 94 and 95 pitches in his two starts this season so, assuming he can avoid a massive blow up, he has a solid window to see 6+ innings of work. You never really know how a Coors Field game is going to go but taking a starting pitcher there is almost always a sure-fire way to be contrarian. Colorado is a strong -170 favorite this evening.

Christian Javier (RHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ ARI

Javier took his extremely impressive minor league stats (13.5 K/9, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) and transferred them over beautifully in his first major league start. Javier threw 5.2 filthy innings against the Dodgers last Wednesday while racking up eight strikeouts and only allowing one run, which came from a solo shot homer. The D-Backs are hitting just .188 against RHPs this season, and that’s actually coming from a decent sample size (229 at-bats). Their 57 wRC+ against righties ranks 28th in the MLB and even though they aren’t striking out a crazy-high amount (21.8% kRate), Javier definitely has the strikeout ability to bump that number up.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Giants, and (possibly?) Nationals. It’s certainly alright to stack any of these teams, just be aware of the likely high ownership.

Atlanta Braves vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), TOR

Shoemaker isn’t the confirmed Blue Jays starter at the time of this writing but is reportedly the most likely to take the mound. I’m all about some Braves stacks if that’s the case. Shoemaker has a career 4.52 xFIP and 18.1% kRate on the road and has a 40% Fly Ball Rate against both LHBs and RHBs. The Braves ranks 6th in the MLB with a 121 wRC+ against RHPs and they’ll also get some innings against a Toronto bullpen that holds a 4.48 xFIP (10th worst). Marcell Ozuna, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. are the four primary bats I’d look to build Braves stacks around.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

The Angels may be without Mike Trout and possibly Shohei Ohtani in their lineup tonight, but they’re still a team that should have a fair amount of stack consideration. Justin Dunn is a very average pitcher who likely only stays on the mound a maximum of four innings. Beyond him, the Mariners bullpen has been one of the worst units in the league. They’ve posted an awful 5.84 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and have allowed 2.15 HR/9. David Fletcher, Anthony Rendon, and Brian Goodwin would be the guys I’d focus on (assuming no Ohtani and Trout).

Update: Actually just read that trout is expected to be activated ahead of tonight’s game. If that’s the case then obviously fire him up, especially with the new dad narrative. Still no word on Ohtani.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Diego Padres vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

Stacking Padres isn’t exactly a crazy proposition considering they rank 5th in baseball with a 119 wRC+ while possessing a ton of power throughout their batting order, but people normally don’t attack Dodgers pitching, and rightfully so -- it's one of the more complete all-around pitching staffs in baseball. But San Diego is a team I could see being capable of tagging up Dustin May and the LAD bullpen. Most of the Padres will be 5-7% owned, at most.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), OAK

Gallo is a reverse-splits hitter who can really provide some pop in lefty-on-lefty scenarios. He should get a couple cracks at a LHP in Jesus Luzardo tonight. Gallo already has three home runs against lefties in just 12 at-bats this season. In 2019, he hit a HR off of lefties in more than 10% of his at-bats. He’s typically a pretty boom/bust guy to spend up on but lately he’s been way more boom, not so much bust.

OF Matt Kemp | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF

Going back to the well for a second consecutive day with Kemp as an affordable piece of the Coors Field action. He didn’t pop off yesterday but didn’t kill lineups either, providing a hit, run, and RBI. In 17 at-bats, he’s hitting .350 with a .500 wOBA and has reached base safely in every game he’s played.

2B/3B Starlin Castro | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), NYM

Castro has hit third out of the Nats order in 5-of-7 games this season and should probably end up there once again when Washington releases its lineup. It would only make sense considering how solid of a hitter Castro is, particularly against lefties. In his last 152 plate appearances against LHPs, Castro has a .324 AVG and .379 wOBA. His 147 wRC+ up to this point in the season tells us that he is currently 47% better at creating runs than the average player in the MLB right now. He’s super affordable on both sites and usually brings a solid fantasy floor to the table.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/3B Renato Nunez | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

Nunez enters into today’s game with back-to-back home run performances, so let’s see if he can make it a three game streak, eh? He’s generating a .333 ISO and 47.4% Hard Contact Rate against right-handed pitchers so far this season and Pablo Lopez isn't exactly a pitcher to shy away from.

Shout out to Mike Yastrzemski for getting me on the board yesterday with this season’s home run calls.

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