Top MLB DFS Plays 8/4 | Expecting Some Midweek Fireworks

August 04, 2021

Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

SPONSORSHIP OFFER - 2 MONTHS FREE WITH THRIVE

Eleven games land on the docket for this evening’s Hump Day main slate. We will have a pretty balanced selection of viable pitchers and hitters/stacks to roll with on this one. There are no significant weather issues to worry about either today, which has been a welcomed running theme as of late! I’ll keep it very short and sweet in this intro and get straight into some plays to consider for today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Not expecting any major issues today!

Best hitting environments: CLE @ TOR, CHC @ COL

Best pitching environments: NYM @ MIA, LAA @ TEX, SF @ ARI

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): There could be a few raindrops fall during this game at some point, but it shouldn’t be anything that would affect play.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | @ ARI

I believe you can gain a little ownership leverage with Gausman here today, particularly on DraftKings where Shohei Ohtani ($9,500) and Max Scherzer ($9,100) could end up being the two most popular pitchers on the slate. I don’t mind either of those guys necessarily, but there is some form of risk with both. The main one for Max Scherzer is the fact that he simply draws a very tough opponent (Houston Astros) in his Dodgers debut. For Ohtani, he had his last scheduled start skipped due to a minor thumb injury, so he hasn’t pitched in nine days. Will that affect his pitch count? Maybe not, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Gausman has had some lackluster outings lately, which included an uncharacteristically bad game against Pittsburgh (4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 K) sandwiched between very “meh” starts against the Dodgers and Astros. We can at least cut him some slack for having some issues with LAD and HOU. He’s still maintaining the high strikeouts along the way (30.3% kRate L5Gms vs. 30.2% kRate L20Gms), he simply needs to get back to limiting the hits and runs (easy peasy, right?). Fortunately, Arizona represents a plus match-up without many overly dangerous bats in their lineup. Their 81 wRC+ vs. RHPs this year puts them at 29th in the league and Vegas is supplying them with a low 4.0 implied run total.

Jon Gray (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHC

To state the obvious risk: Gray will be pitching in Coors Field today. However, he typically pitches well at home (averages +31.4% more FP) and in 57.1 IP at Coors this season, he’s maintained a low 3.14 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and .169 opp AVG. He hasn’t had a truly bad outing in seven consecutive starts and he also leads all pitchers today with 98 pitches/gm over his last five. If you’re feeling really contrarian, Gray could easily end up working out against a Cubs lineup that lost some major pieces through the trade market and still has some guys who love the strikeout.

Zach Thompson (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NYM

Thompson could be a nice and somewhat sneaky source of value among today’s pitchers. He will face a Mets team that hasn’t scored more than five runs in 13 straight games and has a low 77 wRC+ over the last week. Thompson has maintained a 2.33 ERA on the season with a respectable 25.9% kRate, and he has been even better at home. It’s not a significant sample size but in 21.2 IP at home, he has acquired a 2.08 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 28.1% kRate, 1.11 WHIP, and .210 opp AVG. loanDepot Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league and this game will comfortably sport the lowest over/under of the day at 7.5 runs. He hasn’t thrown more than 91 pitches in a game this year but I could see a pathway for Thompson to reach that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold and he’ll free up some salary to spend on some big bats.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

The Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, and the Toronto Blue Jays stand out as the three offenses in the best spot to succeed today. It is no surprise that they also check in with the highest implied run totals on the slate.

Atlanta Braves vs. JA Happ (LHP), STL

Happ will be making his Cardinals debut today and enters in off of a rough month of July. In his five starts last month, Happ registered a 9.22 ERA with a 1.94 WHIP and gave up multiple home runs in three of those games. He also wasn’t exactly facing the stiffest of opposition -- Detroit Tigers (three times), Kansas City Royals, and Los Angeles Angels. The Braves added some much needed depth pieces in the outfield via the trade market (Soler, Duvall, Joc Pederson) which is already paying off dividends. There’s plenty of home run power all throughout this lineup and Happ is no stranger to giving up the long ball.

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

Hernandez has somehow managed to only surrender three home runs in 34.1 IP this season but I believe that number will begin to rise soon. He’s simply getting hit hard (46% Hard%) and batted baseballs are traveling an average of 204.6 feet against him over the last month, third-longest distance among today’s starting pitchers. And even if he doesn’t necessarily surrender many home runs, he’s still allowing a very high 34.1% Line Drive% -- most of which have fallen for hits. The White Sox have been a very strong offense at home versus RHPs where they rank 4th with a 121 wRC+ and a .342 wOBA. Hernandez will also be supported by a bottom 10 ranked Royals bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

The Giants tanked yesterday but they also didn’t roll out their most talented lineup -- Buster Posey received a rest day and Mike Yastrzemski + Brandon Crawford sat due to the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Bumgarner. Expect those guys to be back in the lineup tonight against RHP Zac Gallen. Now, I wouldn’t say Gallen has been a bad pitcher throughout his career by any means, but he has been struggling quite a bit lately (L5Gms: 6.14 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9). He has also had issues with this Giants team in two previous starts against them this season where he lasted just 4.2 combined innings and allowed seven runs on nine hits (two HR) and four walks. San Fran already had a very respectable offense but with the addition of Kris Bryant, expect to see some big games produced by this lineup down the stretch of the season. As a DFS stack, they’ll often go overlooked simply due to the West Coast bias.

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF George Springer | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Matt Harvery (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), STL

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B Brendan Rodgers | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

OF Jarren Duran | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), STL

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Sam Hilliard | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Casey Mize has had some problems with LHBs this year, allowing a lofty .249 ISO and 2.16 HR/9 to that side of the plate. Devers has produced a monster .357 ISO vs. RHPs this season behind a 50% Hard Contact Rate. I feel pretty good about his chances of getting one over the fence tonight.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.