Top MLB DFS Plays 8/31 | Trade Deadline Day!

August 31, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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I hope everyone had a great weekend and you're ready to kick this Monday seven-game evening slate right in the teeth! By the time many read this, the 4 pm ET MLB trade deadline will have already passed. There have already been several highly impactful trades over the last several days, especially out in San Diego where the Padres have made some serious moves towards their 2020 postseason push. Whether or not any more major surprises hit the wire in the next few hours remains to be seen, but it’ll be interesting to find out how these trades affect the playoff picture moving forward.

Looking toward this evening’s slate, despite only consisting of seven games, I believe there are many ways to attack this one. It’s another Coors Field slate but we also have a few legitimate aces taking the mound and several other offenses in strong spots (outside of Coors). This could be a day where stacking Coors ends up being somewhat contrarian, as most people will look to spend up on one or two of these ace pitchers. These somewhat small/mid-sized slates are personally my favorite ones especially where there seems to be a strong balance between viable pitching and hitting. I’m expecting some entertaining games within this one so let’s get into the nitty gritty of it all!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

WAS @ PHI: There will be some rain coverage in the Philly area around game time. It may not be enough to cause delays (or a PPD) but worth checking up on closer to first pitch.

CLE @ KC: This game could run into some issues if they’re unable to dodge some pop-up storms in KC. Since this is one of the later games (8:05 ET), if you have Indians/Royals in your lineup(s), it may not be a bad idea to have some quick ‘swap-out strategies’ in place. The other two games that will lock after this one are CWS @ MIN (8:10 ET) and SD @ COL (9:40 ET).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP) | DK: $11k, FD: $12k | @ KC

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.6k | @ MIN

Gerrit Cole (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $10.7k | vs. TB

These are three of the best pitchers in baseball who don’t need much detailed introduction. All are obviously in play today, particularly in cash games. I think we can assume that there is a strong possibility that these three pitchers could carry a combined ownership of 70+%, so feel free to factor that into your GPP strategy.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | @ NYY

I would probably only go here to Glasnow in GPPs but I do believe he makes for an excellent leverage option if you’re looking to pivot off of the chalkier options. Glasnow’s 5.14 ERA looks pretty ugly on paper but he’s gotten pretty unlucky, with a .345 BABIP, so his 2.75 xFIP is closer to where his ERA should be at and he also has a strong 3.17 SIERA. Glasnow’s massive 39.3% kRate is only bested by Shane Bieber (42.9% kRate) on this slate. After not eclipsing 90 pitches through his first five starts this season, the Rays let him go seven full innings on 96 pitches in his last start as he struck out 13 Oriole hitters along the way. Whether he can hit that 95+ pitch count again remains to be seen but we do know that it’s a possibility at least. The Yankees offense isn’t one people are normally going to want to attack but they are dealing with several injuries to key players (Judge, Stanton, Torres, Hicks). In the last two weeks against RHPs, the Yankees have hit just .210 with a .316 wOBA, .201 ISO, and 98 wRC+ while striking out 25.1% of the time. The Yankees definitely still have some guys that can go yard on Glasnow but they may struggle to score runs against him without those home runs.

Trevor Williams (RHP) | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | @ MIL

There is at least a fairly viable pathway for Williams to pitch his way to a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP kind of night. The Brewers have been one of the worst offenses against RHPs this season (.198 AVG, .275 wOBA, .146 ISO, 68 wRC+). They also strike out 27.4% of the time against righties, which is the third highest kRate in baseball. Williams isn’t going to go out there and dominate most teams, as he has just a 4.84 xFIP, 19.4% kRate, 10% SwStr%, and .352 wOBA -- but I do believe he is capable of pitching fairly well against Milwaukee tonight. However, he should almost certainly be a ‘GPP-only’ contrarian play.

Also Consider:

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.6k | @ BOS

Fried hasn’t earned “ace status” quite yet but he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers this season and has yet to have a truly bad game. Hopefully I’m not jinxing him, but he seems like a fairly safe option tonight against a Red Sox team that, overall, ranks out right in the middle of the league in pretty much all major offensive categories (versus LHPs). 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I still believe the Coors Field match-up between the Rockies and Padres will still carry sizable ownership tonight but, as I mentioned in the intro, I don’t believe either team will be insanely chalky due to people’s desire to pay up for one of the stud pitchers tonight. In my opinion, most Coors ownership will come by way of one-offs and mini two-man stacks, if I had to guess. I believe some serious ownership will come in the WAS @ PHI (10.5 O/U) game which carries a similar run total to SD @ COL (12 O/U) but many guys in the former match-up are going to be considerably more affordable. I wouldn’t fade either game tonight, but be aware of likely increased ownership on many of these hitters.

Chicago White Sox vs. Rich Hill (LHP), MIN

I could summarize this stack recommendation in one sentence: “The White Sox are facing a lefty so play the White Sox” and leave it at that. But I will expand a bit further. As a team, the White Sox have a 161 wRC+ against LHPs this season. The next closest is Washington with a 138 wRC+, which is a remarkably large difference. So, for perspective, CWS has been 61% better versus lefty pitchers than the average MLB team this season (think Cincinnati or Oakland, both have a 97 wRC+ against LHPs). Hill may still garner some respect through name recognition and what he has done throughout his career, particularly as a very solid pitcher with the Dodgers over the last few seasons. But it’s also important to remember that Hill is a 40-year-old pitcher who has been plagued by injuries. It’s a small sample size (12.2 IP) but this season he is only striking out 15.7% of hitters and his 5.65 SIERA ranks out as the second worst among the slate’s starters. The White Sox could definitely give him problems today.

Atlanta Braves vs. Colten Brewer (RHP), BOS

After scoring 12 runs in last night’s “Sunday Night Baseball” broadcast, I don’t think I’d consider this Braves stack suggestion as ‘chasing runs.’ Atlanta has been one of the better offenses all season and particularly in the last two weeks where they have hit .292 (ranks 3rd in that span) with a .368 wOBA (3rd), .211 ISO (5th), .364 OBP (4th), and a 131 wRC+ (4th). Colten Brewer isn’t really a good starting caliber pitcher at the MLB level (4.54 xFIP, 21% kRate, .357 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9) and I’d be surprised if he goes beyond four innings in this one. So the Braves likely hit the majority of their innings against a not terrible, but not especially great, Red Sox bullpen.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

The Rays are a top ten offense versus RHPs and they have several guys who are capable of going deep against Cole. They were able to get six hits, including two home runs, against Cole back on August 19th. Cole still went on to have a strong game, as he struck out ten across 6.2 IP and only gave up two earned runs off of that pair of solo shots. I wouldn’t run a full four or five man Rays stack, but there is a reasonable chance that two or three Tampa Bay bats end up paying dividends tonight at very low ownership.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), PHI

Many people may look to Juan Soto as the go-to bat to spend up on on this Washington squad, but you can’t ignore the fact that Trea Turner has also been an offensive juggernaut. If you go back to August 10th (19 games, 79 at-bats), Turner is hitting .456 with a .541 wOBA, .342 ISO, eight doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 15 RBI while scoring 23 runs himself -- all that resulting in a 245 wRC+. Add onto the fact that he’s a constant threat to steal a base (three steals in that span) and who simply possesses a high floor and high ceiling most days. Spencer Howard is a rookie pitcher making his fourth start and has already given up four home runs thru 11.2 innings (3.09 HR/9) this season and possesses a 5.40 xFIP. I doubt he pitches far into this game, which would leave the Phillies very bad bullpen to pitch much of this game. There’s a reason the Nationals will be a bit chalky tonight but I love Turner if you’re just going for a one-off or mini-stack.

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

‘Cutch’ is probably going to be another popular option tonight, especially with these affordable salaries, but I didn’t want to NOT hit on a couple players from this highly-offensively-favorable game. If we look at McCutchen’s splits since August 16th (13 games, 57 at-bats), he is hitting .368 with a .430 wOBA, .263 ISO, three doubles, four home runs, and 15 RBI. Numbers which have resulted in a 172 wRC+. He has also struck out just 11.9% of the time in that span. Erick Fedde might be the worst starter on this slate so I’m completely fine taking the lead-off hitter against him.

1B Josh Fuentes | DK: $2k, FD: $3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), SD

Fuentes isn’t a lock to start tonight and is maybe more of a DraftKings punt, where he is the bare minimum $2k salary. But he has made the starting lineup in four of the Rockies’ last five games and has gone 5-for-18 (.278) in those games which included a pair of double and a steal. Fuentes has only appeared in 30 MLB games in his career but he has shown some pop in the minor leagues, routinely carrying around a .200 ISO. For the minimum salary for a Coors Field bat on DK, he’s an intriguing fantasy Pt/$ kinda play (again, assuming he makes the lineup).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Luke Voit | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

I’m going to go slightly against the grain for my home run call by not picking a Coors hitter or a guy in that WAS/PHI game. Voit has been wrecking shop this season and has had no issues in righty-on-righty match-ups (.329 AVG, .452 wOBA, .355 ISO, 8 HRs). Glasnow has actually struggled a bit against RHBs after allowing four HRs in just 14.0 combined innings (2.57 HR/9) against righty bats. I talked about Glasnow above as an enticing GPP pivot among pitchers today, but Voit is definitely one of those (still healthy) Yankee bats that has the capability of slugging one deep against him. We’ll see if he can make it happen!

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